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Delta Variant

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Re: Delta Variant

#221

Post by christkv »

torgoguys wrote: post #152
selectodude wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a vaccinated person, I've never really paid much thought to other diseases that could make me, at worst, mildly ill. One may have to enlighten me as to why this one should be different from, say, influenza in my day to day activities at this point.

Many possible responses, but I'll stick to one. Because it isn't just about you. This is a public health matter that is a different situation. We have a rapidly decreasing chance of making this NOT be the next influenza, killing many people every year. This thing, in theory, could have been basically stopped by now, regionally at the very least, but folks want to party and go to restaurants and can't be bothered to g…

At this point it will probably have to be considered endemic like other coronavirus that circulate like colds. Eradicating it is unlikely to happen.

Re: Delta Variant

#222

Post by timr »

shoto_io wrote: post #188
franciscop wrote: post #72

The article purposefully conflates numbers to tell a narrative. I am talking only about EU, and at that southern EU which is where I've been following the numbers closely. Delta variant has been acting for up to 1 month in some regions, and as described in the article yes cases are up very quickly. However, the article says: > COVID deaths [...] And if you think Europe or the US will be spared This is not reflected a…

I still love to share the UK report about the Delta variant from mid of June. Bottom-line: If you’re 2x vaccinated, hospitalization is highly unlikely for Alpha and Delta variants. See this report, page 44 bottom: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

The latest data is even more dramatic: across the UK, the IFR for Delta is ~1/10th that of Alpha, and the "infectiousness" is about the same.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1413537810296950786

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

It is quite clear that for a vaccinated population, it isn't a threat. These are facts that simply aren't being reported by the news media. It's unfortunately quite common for talking heads to prefix "the highly infectious Delta variant" to any discussion, and never offer any context or nuance.

Re: Delta Variant

#223

Post by simonh »

kurthr wrote: post #127
tremon wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and we are past the potential 2-week delay from cases to deaths Not everywhere. See here, for example: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherland... The Netherlands went from 550 cases/day at the end of June to 10,000 cases/day now. The Delta variant took less than two weeks to spread as much as the EU variant did in two months (Sep 1st - Nov 1st). Of course, it was helped a lot by the government de…

I'm intrigued to know where this 2 week delay comes from. That's comparable to the time from first infection to full symptomatic state, but (based on US data) I see a much longer envelope of at least 2-8 weeks. Maybe this start measured from symptomatic or even test results date, but with test times I'd expect something closer to a 4-6 week delay in the statistics. https://github.com/ctesta01/animated_covid_rates/blo…

Yes most people who get it bad die after about 14-28 days. I don't know the detailed stats, but the average might well be 3 or 4 weeks or so, but the first of them start dying after 14 days. This means when you see an increase in infections the death rate starts to rise after about 14 days, as the leading edge of the rise in deaths starts entering the statistics.

Re: Delta Variant

#224

Post by OzyM »

bamboozled wrote: post #214
OzyM wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Non-sterilizing vaccines still reduce viral load, decreasing the amount of active viral particles in circulation. There are plenty of vaccines we use to curb epidemics that aren't full sterilizing vaccines. For the COVID-19 U.S. vaccines in particular: > Preliminary data from the clinical trials among adults ≥18 years old suggest COVID-19 vaccination may also protect against asymptomatic infection.[0] [0] https://www…

Cool, so if everyone else takes it, I won't really need to and I'll likely be safe? Everyone seems absolutely hell bent on taking it immediately, so if that's the case, it's pretty good news for those who'd like some more time to evaluate.

You're right, if everyone around you is vaccinated to the point of virtual herd immunity (afaik not currently true anywhere, but perhaps given more time / incentives / information that may change), you being the only unvaccinated person wouldn't be a major concern (except insofar as it indicates less concern for other people in other contexts).

The main issue is that there are still plenty of people with your same mindset. See the measles resurgence as less people got vaccinated: Even if you accept the personal effects of getting major illnesses, it comes with an increase in danger to the immunocompromised, people who medically cannot be vaccinated, and people whose vaccines don't protect them 100% of the time.

You're free to choose whether or not to get a vaccine, but the consequences of your decision affect more than just you.

[Edit: Additional note - while it seems preferable that everyone who can get vaccinated do so, I suppose if you're sticking with the face masks, hand washing, and social distancing you could still protect others without getting vaccinated. I'd respect that as a viable alternative. However, based on anecdata, the overlap of "people who won't get vaccinated" and "people careful about preventing disease spread" doesn't seem to be a huge section.]

Re: Delta Variant

#225

Post by effie »

egeozcan wrote: post #51
hattmall wrote: post #38

My question is why don't we have treatment? Yes we know vaccines are good as preventative but we also know that vaccines are vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time. It's also somewhat burdensome to need to vaccinate all people all the time. Where is the research into effective treatments and why do we seem to prefer mass vaccination over acute treatments for the sick. Is it just much more difficult to…

Apart from Hepatitis C, I don't know any viruses that can be cured other than waiting it out for the immune system to take care of it. Maybe that are more cases like that but I don't know of more. So maybe it's hard to get rid of viruses? As an uneducated person in this subject, it looks that way to me.

No. We don't cure viruses, we cure diseases. A disease like COVID-19 is launched by the virus and some antivirals may be found to be effective in slowing down/stopping replication.

The severe cases of COVID-19 after a week have usually very little virus replication and the disease is about tissue inflammation, organ damage and immune system disorder. There are some treatment protocols for these and they are evolving.

Re: Delta Variant

#227

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

bamboozled wrote: post #172
aeternum wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many reasons people choose not to get the vaccine. What evidence do you have that the main issue is a distrust of authority? The main authority on this, the FDA has not even officially approved the vaccine and likely won't for quite awhile. For some people it is logical to ask why other vaccines require 10year+ trials and for this a few months was sufficient. While personally, I think the risk of the virus…

Thanks for writing this, I'm still on the fence about taking it for this reason, it was rushed and the longer term implications are certainly still not fully understood. Edit: Again with the downvotes, it's a fact . No one has had this vaccine for 3,5 or 10 years. The long term effects cannot be fully understood until such time has lapsed and studies have been completed. Here, the creator of mRNA vaccines discusses t…

This guy is the self-proclaimed "creator of mRNA vaccines," in the same way that there is a certain self-proclaimed "inventor of email" with whom we're all familiar. His role in the development of the technology that eventually became mRNA vaccines appears, however, to be relatively minor, and it lies decades in the past.

Re: Delta Variant

#228

Post by addicted »

timr wrote: post #222
shoto_io wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still love to share the UK report about the Delta variant from mid of June. Bottom-line: If you’re 2x vaccinated, hospitalization is highly unlikely for Alpha and Delta variants. See this report, page 44 bottom: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

The latest data is even more dramatic: across the UK, the IFR for Delta is ~1/10th that of Alpha, and the "infectiousness" is about the same. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1413537810296950786 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... It is quite clear that for a vaccinated population, it isn't a threat. These are facts that simply aren't being reported by the news media. It's unfortunatel…

Except everywhere I see the media is reporting that 99% of infections are amongst the unvaccinated.

So they are all clearly reporting this. And the reality is that there are tens of millions of people who are not vaccinated who are extremely susceptible to the Delta variant.

It’s not clear to me what point you’re trying to make by insisting that it is significantly less dangerous to the vaccinated that isn’t being made by every news outlet and government agency that I have been following.

Re: Delta Variant

#229

Post by [deleted] »

timr wrote: post #183
bamboozled wrote: post #165

As a reader of HN for several years now, it blows my mind how polarized we all are on this issue. Something smells here, you're not allowed to question anything without being down voted to oblivion, one way or another. Why?

Covid discussion has become equivalent to politics. Most people have strong opinions on the matter, these opinions usually correlate strongly to their favorite political party's stance, and few people have the experience or knowledge to evaluate scientific information rationally. It's a recipe for uninformed debate. On top of that, in the US, the previous president was so politically polarizing that literally any sta…

[deleted]

Re: Delta Variant

#230

Post by cloverich »

specialp wrote: post #135
cloverich wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are ever present dangers that we just live with like the chances of getting in a car accident and dying, but we decide that these risks are low enough that we carry on normal life. Because there are no other (tenable) options for car accidents. If there was a vaccine you could take that would prevent you from being harmed in a car accident, and it was cheap (free even) and available, the expectations around c…

I don't believe I advocated for people not getting vaccinated. I am saying should we keep having "lockdowns"? I do think having lockdowns perpetually is not a tenable option when there is no end in sight. Vaccines when compared to cars are the seatbelt equivalent. They do not cause economic and social harm, and save a lot of lives. People should indeed get vaccinated and most are. Lockdowns are equivalent to restrict…

Lockdowns aren't meant to end the spread of COVID, only to limit it until people can get vaccinated. Vaccine's are the end game. As discussed in the article, if people aren't willing to get vaccinated and gov't unwilling to force, then letting it spread (not lockdowns) is the other option. Assuming people want to get vaccinated in places where the vaccine is not yet abundant (most countries), then lockdown's until supply rises could make sense. Nobody is advocating for permanent lockdowns with no end game. The more general concern of Delta (or any variant) is that the existing vaccine won't work against it, and / or the continued spread will lead to _more_ variants. Its unfortunately an artifical problem in the US, since there's plenty of vaccine supply.
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