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Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

nationalgeographic.com

221–230 of 288 posts

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#221
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

playing the devil's advocate The article prefaces by saying this "One way to cement a claim to a disputed territory — and to anger others who think it belongs to them — is to build on it." Then goes onto describe the disputes almost being exclusive between China and the US Navy, and further reinforces that point by saying, "The U.S., the longtime guarantor of freedom of navigation in Asia’s waters..." I'm sorry, but…

It's not ironic, because the United States is not claiming the area as territorial waters belonging to the U.S. China is clearly the "aggressor" in this situation because they are building military installations in an area that was previously not a militarized zone.

>clearly the "aggressor"

China was the 5th out of 6th claimants to weaponize their holdings on the SCS. The last being Brunei who has nothing. China was merely responding, not initiating SCS weaponization (but mostly in response to US pivot to Asia and increased US basing in the area to contain China - same reason Russia took Crimea in response to NATO encroachment led by US). The difference being China reclaiming land with 2% of Chinese GDP will vastly outscope Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines or Taiwan. The irony is US pushing Philippines for PCA case against China using a dispute system China opted out during her UNCLOS ratification while US not being signatory to UNCLOS. Or US not recognizing features of other claimants that was also invalidated by PCA ruling which applied uniformly to other parties in the SCS.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#222

What has happened to Hong Kong is a strong canary-in-the-coal-mine indicator for other Chinese territorial disputes [i]. With Hong Kong it was somewhat inevitable but I can't help but imagine how different it would be if the US and EU/Britain (as leads) would have strongly denounced their approach. I suspect in a decade from now the West will be lamenting how Hong Kong was the right opportunity to stifle China's ambi…

While I agree with you on principle I think we (the general we) need to be clearer on classification. Hong Kong isn’t really a territorial dispute as there is no real dispute on the territory. Legally HK is a part of China, I don’t think that’s in question. The issue here is with human rights and complying with the terms and timelines of the handover back to China.

True territorial disputes can invoke different measures. Grouping HK and other human rights topics like Xinjiang with territorial disputes I think muddies the waters.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think war can still go on between nuclear armed nations - Tradional naval war happens in a localized region whereas the nuke option with current ICBMs is a complete and utter destruction of the country. Imagine 200 ICMBs landing in the US or China. So, I think this would be the last resort and not the first. Nuclear deterrance works when one party is actually suicidal and weak (North Korea), because if they smell b…

Nope, there will be no great power wars while MAD still exists (and it does between china and the US). At best, you will get some kind of military skirmish before they decide to pull out the nukes. There will likely be threats of nuclear exchange which lead to a cease fire. If there is no cease fire, than God help us all. But no, two nuclear armed states are not going to fight a large scale conventional war. Partly t…

Not sure that the US would spank China in a conventional war. Offshore, maybe (I'm not even sure of that one). Air war, maybe (not sure about that one either). But China's not going to invade the US, and the US isn't going to invade China. That leaves a conventional war a standoff on the bottom line.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#224
I wonder how long before services like Facebook is banned in HK under the new Security law. One interesting thing to see is whether Facebook would comply with censorship requests to appease the PRC. If not, could this be the single largest decline in users for Facebook?

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the dissonance over the US not doing enough is that if the US pulled these moves a decade or two ago, China would have blinked. China not blinking doesn't mean the US isn't doing enough. It means we're living in a world where China doesn't blink anymore. America's absolute influence might still be the same, but its relative influence has fallen.

China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. If US pulled this 20 years ago, China wouldn't have cooperated on bailing the west out of 08 GFC. Also 20 years ago US bombed Chinese embassy in Belgrade a few years after 3rd Taiwan Strait crisis. That would have been a very different timeline.

> China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period.

Except when it does, quietly accepting losing Vladivostok to Russia (Chinese [1] Google translate [2]). Vladivostok was lost during the same era Hong Kong was lost.

[1] https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官...

[2] https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#226

Does anyone here have an informed opinion on what will happen to Taiwan?

Reunication deadline is 29 years away. A lot can happen until then, and while Taiwanese identity and independence movement is expected to solidify, 29 years is still several generations for sentiment and attitudes to change.

The reason why HK was taken now, with all narrative pointing it to be the death knell of 1 country 2 systems, is because HK nativism educated under western textbooks will be fundamentally incompatible with with "1 country" - for PRC any generation trained under Uk textbooks will be a perennial poison pill in terms of cross strait relations. So now new gen of HKers will get brainwashed on patriotic education and NSL will ensure future generations to be firmly pro-China which may coincide with revival of 1C2S if happenstance leads to compatible political shifts in Taiwan. Ideally it will coincide with a prosperous greater bay area with the simultaneous economic decline of Taiwan due to PRC geopolitical maneuvering. Again 29 years is a long time, that's the only hope for peaceful reunification. Meanwhile hope CCP manages nationalism, because a democratic China would have invaded Taiwan already. Fucking Taiwan would be everyone alternative factions trump card if there was ever internecine political struggle.

Alternative is engineering false flag attack from Taiwan and invading under guise of a retaliatory action. IMO all the scenarios of China flat out invading Taiwan because muh redlines is not credible. It will be hybrid warfare with gray zone tactics that China has perfected in SCS, belligerance will be ambiguous enough to provide ample excuse for most countries to sitout, except US, no one wants to intervene against a nuclear power, or just Chinese conventional power on current tracetry of acquisition.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#227
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't make sense. Trump is pro Russia and anti China. Chinese facing more heat now than in the past 50 years.

His public anti-china stance is just a show. Many of his family business dealings are total opposite. Moreover, his presidency is good for China. Fomenting domestic division, weakening law and order, constant attack on the constitution, weakening alliances, being cozy with dictators, on and on, only benefit china, russia and other dictators.

> His public anti-china stance is just a show.

This is confirmed by John Bolton (I guess if you believe what he wrote in his book that the President attempted in court to block).

Trump “turned the conversation to the coming U.S. presidential election, alluding to China’s economic capability and pleading with Xi to ensure he’d win. He stressed the importance of farmers and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome.”

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/trump-lies-china...

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#228
post #132

> It's like watching a patient with cancer finally die Or perhaps it’s like police officers bearing down their weight on a man’s chest and neck, forcing all the oxygen out of his lungs and holding them empty for six minutes so the whole world can witness the life slowly drain from his eyes. Authorities around the world are highly effective at snuffing out human life and freedom.

I'm starting to hate how every thread slowly ends up being about the US instead of the actual topic. HN avoided this for the long time but slowly crawling up here too. Reddit already past this, there is no post in almost any front page default sub without mentioning Trump

I’m sorry that pattern matching offends you.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#229
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. If US pulled this 20 years ago, China wouldn't have cooperated on bailing the west out of 08 GFC. Also 20 years ago US bombed Chinese embassy in Belgrade a few years after 3rd Taiwan Strait crisis. That would have been a very different timeline.

> China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. Except when it does, quietly accepting losing Vladivostok to Russia (Chinese [1] Google translate [2]). Vladivostok was lost during the same era Hong Kong was lost. [1] https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官... [2] https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...

China = modern CCP

Vladivostok was never part of any inherited territory dispute which CCP inherited from ROC who inherited from Qin. Settling border disputes is not analogous to ceding sovereignty, i.e. CCP has no issues settling 12/14 border disputes, most with more Chinese land concessions. But when it comes to core sovereignty issues like Tibet, XJ, HK, Taiwan, part of the century of humiliation narrative hole CCP has dug itself into, they do not compromise on or at least have sunk too much political legitimacy in the last 50 years to ever renege on. Historic exceptions being Mongolia and 11dash down to 9dash in the 50s, when CCP was an infant. Contemporary loose end is pretty much Arunachal Pradesh which CCP is willing to package swap for Aksai China with India which will also resolve Bhutan border.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The West is in many ways equally as guilty but the stakes have changed dramatically. Russia and China are armed to the teeth. Turkey hosts some of the US nuclear weapons as well. The West gets textiles from turkey and China, electronics from China (and many other natural resources), natural resources from UAE and Russia. And Israel has been viewed as a ‘stable’ partner in an unstable area. I would agree that the anne…

That Russia and China are armed to the teeth is bollocks (at least compared to the US). Look at all aircraft carriers worldwide for example, its like what? 5⁵% US and 1-2(barely functioning) for china, and 1 for russia? (Here a probably not current visualization): https://www.pinterest.de/pin/252342385341710559/

I’m referring to nuclear capacity and abilities. I do not foresee the next War to be like the ones of old. Two+ massive powers competing will play ‘chicken’ until someone makes the wrong move.

“ If the button is pushed, there's no running away There'll be no one to save with the world in a grave”

-Barry McGuire ‘Eve of Destruction’

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