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California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

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Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That was nearly 90 years ago. Redlining was made illegal under federal law - i.e. by the government - in the 70s, not least because the private sector had absolutely no interest in doing anything to stop it.

> That was nearly 90 years ago. Did government bureaucrats micro-managing the economy stop being racist in that time? > Redlining was made illegal under federal law - i.e. by the government - in the 70s, not least because the private sector had absolutely no interest in doing anything to stop it. Redlining was invented by the government! The term refers to markings on FHA maps. The FHA massively distorted the mortgag…

Okay, call me naive but would we rather the government have done nothing? I understand racism still exists but you can't act like we haven't made any progress. Could you imagine the protests if segregation or something akin to it started now? I understand horrific actions have been made in the past, I understand there are still bad people in the government. Should we let that prevent us from doing anything to help people? What about people who die of hunger or homelessness? Millions and millions of Americans are in extremely difficult positions right now, my parents included. Should we tell those people we don't even want to try because we're scared of something that happened 90 years ago? Can't we progress? Can't we be better? We certainly can't if we never even give ourselves the chance.

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#222
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, I think this is countered by municipalities losing funding from sales taxes.

California has gotten a windfall in sales taxes from Amazon and Ebay in recent years when sales tax collection was forced. The money is always poorly spent.

I don't know in detail what California's budget is like (other than they've been in the whole lately?) But I personally view a lot of the issues with local and state government spending as being associated with bidding processes and the cost of e.g., infrastructure. I think California generally has the right priorities (roughly, education, healthcare, safety (although this could perhaps be reshuffled, see zeitgeist), and infrastructure). If anything I think they probably need to work to reduce costs in higher education especially and spend more on infrastructure (or reduce costs, but I think that'll be harder than in ed).

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think California in general has an identity crisis right now - a victim of its own success. It is probably the most unequal place in America in terms of wealth and income. But yet it is almost in denial about that. It is a huge polluter but refuses to really take action outside of token policies. Nuclear reactors might be a bit too much risk considering the seismic activity - but thorium reactors could be safely de…

So why are you opposed to progressive (number wise not politically) income tax but then seem not to be opposed to raising property tax? Again, I’m as far away from California as geographically possible and still live in the US. I don’t have a dog in this fight. In other words, why focus o property tax property instead of income tax? Also, how is property tax not a “wealth tax”?

I think the issue with property tax policy in California is that it is nativist. You essentially lock-in a price and if you don’t move, over time you’ll be paying peanuts compared to people buying a home for the first time. This starved communities of revenues so they keep jacking income tax on workers while people sit in or rent their homes that have appreciated to millions of dollars and pay almost nothing to the community. You can also pass the property down to kids who will continue to pay very little tax on it and be able to rent it for profit.

I have my own issues with property tax in that it penalizes improving a property (should be primarily based only on land value, not what is built on it for redudebtial) However it’s a tax that should be better at ensuring funds stay more local than a state tax. This means the schools and public resources can be funded by the community as they see fit. It’s a local tax abd I think local policies and power are best left to localities. It’s easier and more practical for citizens to participate in local government and it effects us most. Much better than sending all the tax revenue to a centralized government that shreds it apart like hyenas.

States like Texas get it right imo. No income tax and higher property taxes which the localities set mainly. With a portion going to the state to run and to distribute to communities that need a bit of help.

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#224
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s an interesting point. The USA always gets compared to Europe, especially Western Europe with this so called “Quality of Life” statistic. However there are far more Western Europeans moving to the USA than the other way. I don’t know, my siblings and I do better than our parents who put time in to raise us. We didn’t have much except each other. We weren’t without but we never had a vacation or went out t…

> However there are far more Western Europeans moving to the USA than the other way Yeah, you have a “engineer” bias: people move to the US when they make top 10% income because it’s the only way your life is better than in a Western European country. You don’t see Europeans making median wage in the US because that would be quite stupid. My parents combined make maybe 15-20% of my income in the US, they still go on…

So if you want to strive and achieve excellence, come to America.

If you want to go on vacation more, live in Western Europe.

What are the long term effects of this?

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#225
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who cares about inequality — poverty is down: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26532 . The difference between the rich and the poor is less important than making sure that the poor are rich enough. Real median income is up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N Tax revenues as a %age of GDP are mostly flat: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S US median disposable income is about the 3rd highest on t…

And yet 78% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck[1], and 40% don't have the money to cover a $400 emergency expense[2]. For our riches, we have the highest population of people without health insurance in the first world, and the number one cause of bankruptcy in the US is medical expenses. Inequality drives cost of living up. Normal people in the US are competing with the richest people domestically and inte…

> 40% don't have the money to cover a $400 emergency expense

This is an often cited statistic that's been essentially debunked for being flawed and misleading[1][2].

> And yet 78% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck

Again, not a particularly useful statistic because 1. real consumption per capita has been increasing[3], and 2. the US has the 2nd highest household consumption[4] in the world.

"Living paycheck to paycheck" includes people that are destitute, but also people that just consume more than they should, and also people that are unable to save money due to increasing housing costs (not due to inequality, but due to zoning regulations). Of those who claim to be living "paycheck to paycheck", you don't know which are destitute.

> For our riches, we have the highest population of people without health insurance in the first world, and the number one cause of bankruptcy in the US is medical expenses.

Sure, this has nothing to do with inequality. If you gave everyone health insurance in America today, inequality would hardly change. And inequality is NOT the root cause of America's healthcare system, the root cause is a series of policies passed in the 20th century that resulted in 1) healthcare being tied to employment, 2) a lack of any form of price transparency, 3) supply constraints on medical professionals that have resulted in the highest PPP adjusted salaries for medical practitioners in the developed world.

> Inequality drives cost of living up. Normal people in the US are competing with the richest people domestically and internationally for housing. While normal people need housing to shelter themselves, the rich, especially the rich outside of the US, see housing as a means to store value.

We’ve always had mega-rich families. The new phenomenon we’re seeing now is not that "normal people" are competing with the super-rich, it's that they are competing with the upper-middle class. Where I live (Brooklyn), The rents aren’t driven up because I’m in a bidding war with Jeff Bezos; they’re driven up because I’m in a bidding war with other high earning millennial white collar workers. The “middle class” worker doesn’t stand a chance in our neighborhood.

Also the cost of living isn't up uniformly across the US, it's only up in most big cities where the root cause is attributable almost entirely to poor zoning regulations, not "inequality". You can see the salary one must earn to purchase the median house in every city[5] and outside SF/NY/Seattle, it's around the median household income.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-04/the-40...

[2] https://www.cato.org/blog/it-true-40-americans-cant-handle-4...

[3] https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=A794RX0Q048SBEA

[4] https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-...

[5] https://www.hsh.com/finance/mortgage/salary-home-buying-25-c...

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#226
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who cares about inequality — poverty is down: https://www.nber.org/papers/w26532 . The difference between the rich and the poor is less important than making sure that the poor are rich enough. Real median income is up: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N Tax revenues as a %age of GDP are mostly flat: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S US median disposable income is about the 3rd highest on t…

The richest have the loudest voices. Inequality distorts government plans, priorities, and how laws are written.

That’s just not true, in practice, though. Laws are written by legislators who ultimately need to win the confidence of their constituents. No amount of money will install a representative who cannot win a democratic election.

We’ve seen this play out time and time again.

Jeff Bezos’ own district in Washington State is represented by a socialist.

Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump by 2x in the 2016 election, and still lost. In fact, she had far more corporate backing than Donald Trump, and still lost.

In the 2020 Democratic Primaries, Michael Bloomberg spent $1 billion (!!) on his campaign, and won just 9.4% of the popular vote (1.38% of pledged delegates).

Tom Steyer (a no-name billionaire), spent $343 million on his election, and won a humiliating 0.38% of the popular vote (0% of pledged delegates). Interestingly, you would think he would have at least 1/3 of Bloomberg's vote, which suggests that the vast majority of the variance in Bloomberg's vote share can be attributed to his existing name recognition as a famous businessman/politician. No amount of money was enough to make their core message resonate with ordinary voters.

Bernie Sanders spent $195 million on his election, having spent less than Bloomberg + Steyer and while having handily beaten both.

Joe Biden spent $105 million on his campaign, less than Bernie, and still beat him by 3 million votes.

Elizabeth Warren spent $121.31 million on her campaign, and also handily beat Bloomberg + Steyer while having spent far less than them, while losing to Biden while having spent more than him.

Those are just the anecdotes (of which there are many more). Decades of research[1] suggest that money probably isn’t the deciding factor in who wins a general election, and especially not for incumbents. Most of the research in the last century found[2] that spending didn’t affect wins for incumbents and that the impact for challengers was unclear[3]. Even the studies[4] that showed spending having the biggest effect, like one that found a more than 6 percent increase in vote share for incumbents, didn’t demonstrate that money actually causes wins.

In fact, those gains from spending likely translate to less of an advantage today, in a time period where voters are more stridently partisan. There are probably fewer and fewer people who are going to change their vote because they liked your ad.

Yes, money helps you broadcast your message. If your message resonates, you can even win elections (what a concept). But money alone isn't persuasive.

[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2605401

[2] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002764203260415

[3] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2138764?seq=1#metadata_info_tab...

[4] http://www.sas.rochester.edu/psc/clarke/214/Gerber98.pdf

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only there were some precedent we could look to where huge numbers of people were out of work and the government killed two birds with one stone by employing a lot of them on major infrastructure projects. And what if those infrastructure projects, like improvements to roads, bridges and national parks, were largely outside and thus relatively safe even in today's climate of Covid-19. It seems like we might go int…

Yeah, great precedent of big government intervention in the economy: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/526655831 > The Public Works Administration program and housing was primarily designed to provide housing to white middle-class/lower-middle class families. The progressive aspect of it was that some projects were built for African-Americans as well. But it was explicitly segregated. And in many cases, it segregated n…

Sure, there were absolutely problems (though bear in mind you're addressing one program - there was also the TVA, CCC, and a bunch of others I could've told you off the top of my head when I was in US history in high school), but the point is it put unemployed people to work and helped stem the damage to the economy.

It's the best precedent we have for the situation we're in today, and it's silly to act as though it's not useful to draw on it now because it had problems. They're problems that are easily fixable, after all - it's very possible for us to create programs today that have similar positive effects on employment and the economy and just do them without the racism.

It's very easy to find fault with anything in history, but if that's all you try to do, you're going to miss out on a lot of really useful information.

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Berlin got a blackout once in a decade like most American cities get multiple times a year. The Berlin power outage linked above was over thirty hours, and the SF outages you linked were a few hours. To bury that in "(not always duration)" seems misleading to me. That said, the 2019 power cuts were indeed approaching third-world duration and frequency, to the point that homeowners who could afford it applied the us…

> how did we get from SF to "most American cities" 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/07/blacko... https://www.theblackoutreport.co.uk/2020/08/12/chicago-black... https://www.nola.com/news/article_a64debc0-c3dc-11ea-8d5a-57... https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/11/detroit... https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07... ... 2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manha…

To be clear, I agree that most developed countries don't routinely experience rolling blackouts like the one that just happened in California. This includes the USA, unless we count twice in twenty years in the state with the worst grid as "routinely". I don't think it's useful to compare anecdotes, though I'd note again that most of the outages linked above are far shorter than the Berlin outage. Anyone who believes that most American cities experience multiple thirty-hour, 30k-customer outages per year (as the comment I first replied to implied, despite the hedge with "not always duration") is mistaken.

morelisp's later comment linked to SAIDI numbers for the USA and Germany, and by that standard[1] Germany is indeed far better than the USA, about 4.5 nines to our 3.5. Singapore[2] is yet better, about 6 nines. The USA is far worse than the EU average, somewhere around Italian[3] standards. That's an undeniable difference, though I'm not sure all of that is attributable to incompetent American operators (though certainly some is, as PG&E has repeatedly shown).

The grid can't target perfect reliability, since the cost for that would exceed the benefit in almost all applications. It's cheaper to provide backup power for the few exceptions (data centers, medical, etc.). The cost per customer to achieve a certain reliability will be higher with lower population density. The cost for backup power is fixed. So the economically efficient grid reliability should be worse with lower population density, which seems to be what we see empirically--Australia is bad too, for example. I'd guess that much of the difference is simply because the USA has decided that Germany-level reliability isn't cost-effective, in the same way that Germany has decided that Singapore-level reliability isn't cost-effective. I'd guess the World Bank ranking I cited somehow tries to capture that fact and therefore ranks all three countries about the same, though I can't find any details of their methodology.

1. https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/the-smarter-grid...

2. https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/...

3. https://www.occto.or.jp/en/information_disclosure/miscellane... , Tables 45 and 46

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> at the federal level, there are two chambers of Congress and the Executive. Changing anything for the benefit of the masses through electoral politics may never happen again or will be too slow. The last time two times the US had aligned executive and legislative branches were the first two years of the Obama and Trump regimes. So much changes between elections that there's no way we can fix it through electoral po…

> The last time two times the US had aligned executive and legislative branches were the first two years of the Obama and Trump regimes. And Obama managed to pass healthcare reform (ACA, "Obamacare", national Romneycare). If Binden gets in, and the Democrats can control Congress (the Senate is if-y), then I would hope they do something about climate change (carbon pricing?) as it is an existential threat. There's als…

> And Obama managed to pass healthcare reform (ACA, "Obamacare", national Romneycare).

If the best that the Democrats could do while controlling the executive and legislative was pass a Republican health insurance plan, we're in deep trouble. It should be clear by now that neither party passes anything that will materially better the working class and the toiling masses.

> There's also the need about dealing from all the COVID fallout, but that a lot there could be done via the competent running of the government. Infrastructure needs spending and that would entail Congress, so that may be a #3 priority.

All this presumes that the problem is competency. The problem is that none of these things are profitable. In a system that runs on profitablity, there is no room for services that lose money.

If you look through the lens of profit, I argue that the people who are running the government are competent in enriching themselves and those corporations that prop them. Both parties oversee the direct transfer of wealth from the masses to the few. For as much (or little) we pay in taxes, the masses do not benefit as much as the überwealthy do: we do not have a significant safety net, we have no housing, no healthcare, no security. Everything that is required to live costs money. This affects the masses more than it affects the wealthy, because the wealthy can afford anything. I would like to add that Obamacare is insurance and not healthcare, so it still costs the poor a significant portion of the little wealth they have.

Re: California issues first rolling blackouts since 2001

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That was nearly 90 years ago. Did government bureaucrats micro-managing the economy stop being racist in that time? > Redlining was made illegal under federal law - i.e. by the government - in the 70s, not least because the private sector had absolutely no interest in doing anything to stop it. Redlining was invented by the government! The term refers to markings on FHA maps. The FHA massively distorted the mortgag…

Okay, call me naive but would we rather the government have done nothing? I understand racism still exists but you can't act like we haven't made any progress. Could you imagine the protests if segregation or something akin to it started now? I understand horrific actions have been made in the past, I understand there are still bad people in the government. Should we let that prevent us from doing anything to help pe…

> Okay, call me naive but would we rather the government have done nothing? I understand racism still exists but you can't act like we haven't made any progress.

The Black-white income and wealth gaps are as large today as they were in the 1960s: https://images.app.goo.gl/s1YD3sxKeuG289GfA. While the reasons for that are complex, New Deal programs that redlined African Americans, strengthened unions that excluded them, introduced segregation through the WPA into northern cities that hasn’t been segregated before, etc., played a significant role.

I’m not objecting to the government doing things. My objection is to OP’s invocation of the New Deal as the template for action. Last time we tried empowering white central planners to construct housing and infrastructure, they played out their prejudices in their decisionmaking to the detriment of non-white people.

There’s lots of things you can do that aren’t in the New Deal model. For example, if you’re worried about homelessness, instead of having the government build public housing (the New Deal approach) you can give people money to buy housing (the Nixon-Ford Section 8 voucher model). That’s what the government is doing now. It’s just giving people money and stabilizing the economy. (That’s also what every OECD country is doing.) It’s a better approach.

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