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We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

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Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#221

Post by JamisonM »

yters wrote: post #216
JamisonM wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the real point is that your original claim was a small sample that you were extrapolating wildly from turns out to be 10x smaller than you claimed. Furthermore you are focusing on a tiny portion of available data instead of all that is available. Given that New York State has 4,000+ deaths your "model" would indicate that 1MM residents have COVID-19? So if it rips through the remaining 19MM residents in the c…

It seems that 'all available' would diminish the signal of Iceland's good stat. What we really want is 'all good stats'. I think only South Korea is the other country with extensive testing. According to my model NYC should only have a max of 13.5k deaths, without any mitigation. Based on the Greg Mortimer stat, this bumps up to 41k for NYC.

It doesn't seem to pass just a basic level of consistency with present experience to believe that with no mitigation New York would only have 13.5k deaths when they already have 5.5k+ (and we know many more that have not and maybe will never be confirmed).

Even the idea of 41k at this point beggars belief, they are already well over capacity with some mitigation and the bodies are literally piling up.

I find it hard to wrap my head around the logic here.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#222

Post by vonmoltke »

yters wrote: post #216
JamisonM wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the real point is that your original claim was a small sample that you were extrapolating wildly from turns out to be 10x smaller than you claimed. Furthermore you are focusing on a tiny portion of available data instead of all that is available. Given that New York State has 4,000+ deaths your "model" would indicate that 1MM residents have COVID-19? So if it rips through the remaining 19MM residents in the c…

It seems that 'all available' would diminish the signal of Iceland's good stat. What we really want is 'all good stats'. I think only South Korea is the other country with extensive testing. According to my model NYC should only have a max of 13.5k deaths, without any mitigation. Based on the Greg Mortimer stat, this bumps up to 41k for NYC.

> I think only South Korea is the other country with extensive testing.

South Korea has tested a tiny fraction of their total population, because the testing is largely targeted via contact tracing.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#223

Post by benchtobedside »

mhandley wrote: post #195

Is the 1M/day figure for individual tests? When the expected number of positives is low, can't you run group tests? Mix the first samples from 16 patients together and test them as a batch. If the result is negative, all 16 are negative. Otherwise re-run the second samples. Depending on how many samples you take from each patient, you can binary search, or just run 16 individual tests on the second samples. By doing…

You can indeed, this was addressed earlier in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22810002

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#224

Post by yters »

vonmoltke wrote: post #222
yters wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that 'all available' would diminish the signal of Iceland's good stat. What we really want is 'all good stats'. I think only South Korea is the other country with extensive testing. According to my model NYC should only have a max of 13.5k deaths, without any mitigation. Based on the Greg Mortimer stat, this bumps up to 41k for NYC.

> I think only South Korea is the other country with extensive testing. South Korea has tested a tiny fraction of their total population, because the testing is largely targeted via contact tracing.

It isn't about proportion of population, but whether they are only testing people already admitted at the hospital, which will drive the estimate up, or testing the wider population, driving the estimate down. SK is doing the latter through contact tracing.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#225

Post by yters »

JamisonM wrote: post #221
yters wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that 'all available' would diminish the signal of Iceland's good stat. What we really want is 'all good stats'. I think only South Korea is the other country with extensive testing. According to my model NYC should only have a max of 13.5k deaths, without any mitigation. Based on the Greg Mortimer stat, this bumps up to 41k for NYC.

It doesn't seem to pass just a basic level of consistency with present experience to believe that with no mitigation New York would only have 13.5k deaths when they already have 5.5k+ (and we know many more that have not and maybe will never be confirmed). Even the idea of 41k at this point beggars belief, they are already well over capacity with some mitigation and the bodies are literally piling up. I find it hard…

My thought is since this is a new virus it will spread faster, and hit peak sooner. Also, those who are most affected are a small portion of the whole population, which will again imply faster time to peak.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#226

Post by ced »

bequanna wrote: post #200
ced wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what if there are two (or more?) positive samples? It's an interesting problem.

If the initial test size is 64 and contains a positive, split into two groups of 32 and test each. Continue splitting and testing when a positive is encountered.

Yeah, but this version is not necessarily optimal. If you have 4 positive samples, then you will test 2+2+1+1+1+1 = 8, instead of 4 in the naive case.

It feels like a problem for information theory.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#227

Post by bequanna »

ced wrote: post #226
bequanna wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the initial test size is 64 and contains a positive, split into two groups of 32 and test each. Continue splitting and testing when a positive is encountered.

Yeah, but this version is not necessarily optimal. If you have 4 positive samples, then you will test 2+2+1+1+1+1 = 8, instead of 4 in the naive case. It feels like a problem for information theory.

I didn’t say it was optimal, but it is a huge improvement on doing 64 tests for 64 samples.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#228

Post by robomartin »

mrkurt wrote: post #104
robomartin wrote: post #77

We are seeing example after example of the power of entrepreneurship and private enterprise. I hope we remember this going forward and weave it into our national culture deeper and wider than it already is.

What we're seeing is how agile a small, functional, and motivated group can be. Private enterprise as whole is every bit as f'd up as the government.

> Private enterprise as whole is every bit as f'd up as the government.

This is wrong. What's the basis for this comment/idea?

I have founded and run multiple companies. I have worked for small, medium and large (8,000 employee) companies in various capacities. In a 30+ year career I could not name even one company that I would say fits your assertion at all. I am sure they exist. Yet, I am also sure they are an insignificant percentage of the total.

There's a key difference between private enterprise and government: Failure kills.

Again, except for corner cases or companies that exist due to government money (I don't include these in "private enterprise") entrepreneurship, private industry, capitalism if you will, is a survival of the fittest contest. Like it or not, this is reality.

Government operates with completely different metrics. Failure, for the most part, has no real consequences. A simple example of this is the "high speed" train project here in CA. I've lost track at this point. I think the last time I looked they were at $100BN and the whole thing is a massive smelly pile of manure. Nobody, except for taxpayers, will pay for the consequences of that failure...sadly, one of many at the hands of government.

This crisis is highlighting just how messed up things are under government control. Last night my son, who is in university pursuing a degree in CS, said "Dad, do you know COBOL?". When I asked why, he said New Jersey is trying to hire a bunch of COBOL programmers because their payment systems are badly broken, the code is done in COBOL and it is in need of fixing so they can pay people the aid funds the federal government is providing. I mean, this is typical, sad and ridiculous.

No, private enterprise is a universe away from almost anything government touches. The only service I can identify in government that lives (or dies) by similar metrics is the military. They have real and non-trivial consequences for incompetence. Death. And that means they can't run like a state payment system that's 40 years old and grossly outdated. I am sure the military have issues as well, yet, for the most part, given their mission, could not survive in the long run if they did not operate at a certain level of competency.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#229

Post by thoraway1010 »

Ididntdothis wrote: post #118
thoraway1010 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

actually, scaling a website is much easier than scaling a medical service. If you can't be bothered to take some basic steps for web site scaling (google page speed + a CDN) then the idea that you will carefully and successfully navigate to a 1 million tests per day moderate to high complexity medical test seems like it will be a stretch no? That said, a 100% support MUCh higher test capacity, both this and IGg IGm (…

"If you can't be bothered to take some basic steps for web site scaling (google page speed + a CDN) then the idea that you will carefully and successfully navigate to a 1 million tests per day moderate to high complexity medical test seems like it will be a stretch no? " Their priorities may be on other things than websites.

From experience, the clients who can't get some things right struggle to get many things right.

Seriously.

Someone has a great idea and is able to attract good people to work with them? Then even though item X is the focus, you see quality in items Y -> Z. It naturally seems to happen.

I'd love to know WHY this is the case.

Re: We’re working on 1M Covid-19 testing capacity per day

#230

Post by dang »

meheleventyone wrote: post #152

I’d like to point out that schools are not open in the normal sense in Iceland. All the older kids school is stopped and Universities are shut. Our youngest is three and is in her leikskoli on alternate days so they can maintain small group sizes with no contact between them. Our eldest is six and only in school for a few hours in the morning, skips a bunch of more risky activities and is again segregated from other…

(We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22808230)
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