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Coronavirus and Credibility

paulgraham.com

221–230 of 968 posts

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#221
post #207

Paul is referring to Fox News: https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1246146713523453957?...

while those are most blatant examples. There are plenty of examples from left wing sites too. All those people seem to have simply gone "underground" eg: https://twitter.com/rojospinks?lang=en from the famous 'travel bans dont' work'.

how do you know hes only referring to right wing websites?

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#222
post #10

From what I'm reading, I think there are still a significant minority of people who think this isn't an issue. I've had to learn to just walk away from comments on a variety of media where comments such as 'psychosomatic', 'less dangerous than the flu that kills 50,000 each year', 'patented by the illuminati', 'caused by 5G masts', and so on. I ended up deleting my twitter account as I dared try to engage with one UK…

i've been saying "not more dangerous than the flu" before it started really going to shxt in europe, because to be honest, the epidemic doesn't look that dangerous if you're in general good health, just by looking at the numbers from a distance. The fact that most people seem to not have anything worse than a few days of fever (some having even nothing at all), while at the same time others simply die very quickly to…

To a degree we deal with catastrophic threats aptly without having our responses deadened by past fears never having come to fruition regularly. For example we swim knowing that if we stop moving we will sink and drown, we drive knowing that a slip up we could well die.

We are collectively guilty of many errors in judgement but on the whole we show on average not only are we able to mostly behave competently in complex situations individually we are able collectively to make some systemic changes to decrease mortality over the years.

This gives me hope that we take the correct lesson from this terrible experience and adjust our individual and collective behavior to avoid a re occurrence.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#224
post #207

Paul is referring to Fox News: https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1246146713523453957?...

What about the NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot tweeting in February (https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/122404315585253786...):

As we gear up to celebrate the #LunarNewYear in NYC, I want to assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or certain parts of the city because of #coronavirus.

And then again in March (https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/123429834432909312...):

Despite this development, New Yorkers remain at low risk for contracting #COVID19. As we confront this emerging outbreak, we need to separate facts from fear, and guard against stigma and panic.

Or the NYC Chair of New York City Council Health Committee tweeting (https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1226566648729133056):

In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC's Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of "be strong Wuhan!"

If you are staying away, you are missing out

Or Bill de Blasio tweeting (https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229):

Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc . If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film.

Or does it only count when its Fox News?

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#225
post #207

Paul is referring to Fox News: https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1246146713523453957?...

Are you sure? I saw a different video where media outlets of all types were saying similar things. The infamous deleted "Vox" tweet where they said it would not be a deadly pandemic, for one example. I don't think linking a partisan outlet singling out a partisan outlet from the opposite side of the isle is a good way to treat this issue. PG apparently doesn't either, and didn't name names. Source: https://i.imgur.co…

Many news media companies have been engaging in just that, trying to point out (hypocritically) where their competitors attempted to downplay the threat of the virus. It's not so much a problem with news media being wrong, it's a problem with most of them skewing towards pundit commentary and OP/ED's on the news, rather than just reporting the news.

If the news media blankly reports what is happening, and avoided adding layers of interpretation on top of it, their reputations would be in better shape right now.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#226
post #19
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i've been saying "not more dangerous than the flu" before it started really going to shxt in europe, because to be honest, the epidemic doesn't look that dangerous if you're in general good health, just by looking at the numbers from a distance. The fact that most people seem to not have anything worse than a few days of fever (some having even nothing at all), while at the same time others simply die very quickly to…

Just goes to show that people will continue to ignore an exponential trend until it eats their lunch personally . FWIW, totally aside from that, CDC numbers for the "flu" are actually a combined "flu and pneumonia", and according to the NHS in the UK-- which doesn't bin the same way-- no more than 1/3rds of those deaths are due to the flu. Other estimates have put the flu well under 10% of flu+pneumonia, though with…

If you lose your job, your lunch is being eaten.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#227
post #4

Excellent point Paul! How can we actually do a better job of keeping track of credibility? There are so many talking heads that it is hard to remember who said what and who is or is not credible. You almost would need a Black Mirror style AR credibility score floating in view?

you have to hone your bs meter by making lots of mistakes. incidentally, that's life in a nutshell.

Re: Coronavirus and Credibility

#229
The article seems to be taking a shot at a reasonably easy target.

Almost all the talking heads are late Feb/early March. While it was clear something was happening "over there", and the fear was growing, it wasn't unreasonable at that point to not expect the unprecedented situation we are now in - and these people are not paid to offer nuance.

I'm not sure this easy soapbox judgement is much more constructive than the hacks it pillories.

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