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Hard Startups

blog.samaltman.com

221–230 of 331 posts

Re: Hard Startups

#221
post #183
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you mean, when something fit their narrative (here: government research is better) people forget about other attempts? And counter examples in similar domains (here: wifi) are also dismissed? Color me impressed!

Wifi is not a counter example. The underlying technology was invented at CSIRO, the Australian government research agency.

Something must be invented somewhere. All I say is government research is not necessarily "better". It just is.

Re: Hard Startups

#222
Silicon Valley loves to shine its turds. And they love to believe their own stink about how much they're disrupting and changing the world. And yet the most funded startups are just car services and rooms-for-rent and song-sharing-apps and the next social media whatever. When the top 10 SV funded startups are solving really big problems, then I'll start believing this nonsense.

Re: Hard Startups

#223
post #77
post #24

"If you want to start a company working on a better way to build homes, gene editing, artificial general intelligence, a new education system, or carbon sequestration, you may actually be able to get it funded, even if you don’t have a degree or much experience." I encourage anyone to give hard startups a shot, but there are tons of PhDs/Postdocs out there who would make amazing founders -- they should make the leap!…

I'm currently in the research phase for an idea using algae/other plants that sequester CO2 rapidly and continue to have questions, which lead to more questions. Thankfully there is a ton of research that has been done, which makes diving into the topic easy. But having someone to work with that has a PhD/postdoc in this area could help build the idea faster. How can I meet someone with a PhD/postdoc in a specific fi…

Science Twitter

Re: Hard Startups

#224

I find ycombinator to be acting completely ignorant of why and how it succeed. The whole notion that they can apply the techniques for an internet startup to hard things is bizarre. As the internet S curve comes to a close, new organizations should be built. Using ycombinator's name to launch unsuccessful startups is just asking to destroy Bs

So, oh wise one, what should we all be working on?

GAI

Re: Hard Startups

#225
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could present issues if you're speaking to a particularly disagreeable VC, but you're unlikely to convince that person anyway. They've decided they've got an axe to grind and they're going to use you as the grindstone. If you're in a situation where you're having to overcome objections in your pitch, most of the time you've already lost, and you should just move on. The goal for your pitch is to figure out how to…

Understood, thank you. I agree with your points. However, just to clarify, the basis for my original question is whether it is possible to predict VCs' "(dis)agreeableness", based on their domain expertise or lack thereof. I appreciate your opinion and look forward to hearing more thoughts from this community.

That I don't think is likely to be any kind of stable predictor. It has more to do with their personality than their background as near as I can tell.

Re: Hard Startups

#226
Unpopular opinion: Silicon Valley is in the beginning stages of a period of decline. There's lots of great entrepreneurial activity elsewhere, and for building these sorts of "hard startups", the truth is that SF and SV are not the best places to do it. People and rent simply cost too much, and the venture scene lacks depth in these areas.

Re: Hard Startups

#227
post #131

I find these 'Valley Koans' popularised in the last long while to be a little troublesome. Things like 0->1->n Do things that don't scale Andreesen Horowitz bit on 'The Good Ideas That Seem Bad' Paul G's essays. They all have nice little nuggets of wisdom, but what the almost always lack are good examples and concrete evidence. Funny that many HN comments are better researched than a lot of these 'Deep Thoughts'. Sin…

The biggest "deep problem"-type leaps in the past few decades have been due to innovations in technological infrastructure: the advent of the internet, GPS, and smartphone for example. All three innovations benefited from the positive externalities of government funding, as well as routine R&D and large corporations. The entities that collectively solved those hard problems only captured a fraction of the profits/ben…

Second mouse gets the cheese.

Re: Hard Startups

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a few examples of government agencies which can make many parallel bets, on the understanding that most will fail but a few may pay off big. But, by "a few examples", I actually just mean DARPA. I'm sure there are others, not many though. Politics does not work well with "most of these projects failed". It's too easy of a target. Anything that failed, is an easy target for a congressman to take aim at as be…

> I actually just mean DARPA NASA is the obvious next example. They pay for a lot of esoteric stuff that once made they don't actually end up needing - but having paid the startup costs - end up contributing to other fields. I think FEMA also does similar things though at a much less parallel (but a higher volume). Most of the "regulate and promote an industry" (a dumb idea for structuring them but I digress) agencie…

NASA had, at one time, a "cheaper, smaller, faster" strategy, which they then abandoned the first time it resulted in a mission failure. If they had the 90% failure rate of many VC's, betting on lots of 100x but only 10% of the time startups, they would have been shut down.

Re: Hard Startups

#229
post #9

It’s odd (read: motivated by self-interest) that he didn’t make any attempt to establish the failure rate of these startups and the distribution of outcomes for employees. Further, he didn’t even argue for a referendum on equity comp. He’s blatantly peddling the same broken model of “sell them your fugazzi so they can’t tell their talent is being plundered for (founder/investor) economic gain”. It’s downright insulti…

> Don’t fall for their “mission” nonsense. It’s a monstrous lie designed to keep funneling tremendous amounts of money to the people at the top. 100% For some reason, it is so easy to believe in it but the fun part will eventually come in a form of VC asking where is the money. "When someone says "I am not doing it for the money" he (she) is doing it only for the money." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb. My opinion is that it…

> "When someone says "I am not doing it for the money" he (she) is doing it only for the money." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

This is silly. Artists and creatives aren't doing it for the money. Social workers aren't doing it for the money. Teachers aren't doing it for th money ... etc. Passion => irrationality. Or different goals, like sense of purpose vs. money.

Re: Hard Startups

#230
post #11

Something that really bugs me about this is the lack of examples where this succeeds. In my mind, a good one is Intel. To that end, how many microprocessor startups actually ended up succeeding at the same working on some fundamental and challenging things? Also, the thing about hard startups is there is a lot of luck involved. Counter to what the author is saying, you do need a degree or some level of measurable exp…

> Counter to what the author is saying, you do need a degree or some level of measurable expertise to start a hard startup, because not only do you need the expertise, you also need the credibility to get people to work with you and you need that solid team to get funding. Interestingly, this criterion causes Microsoft to be in the "Easy Startup" column. (Facebook too, but that seems more correct.) The Elizabeth Holm…

Elizabeth was doing a degree in a hard field and had the credibility of her supervisor to lean on, plus a whole host of questionable motivations from those who invested in Theranos. Funny enough, the degreeless founder in a hard startup turned out to be a fraud.
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