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The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

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Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#221

Post by thekyle »

clouddrover wrote: post #53
dabeeeenster wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a Nissan leaf. When I talk to people about it, it amazes me how many people think anyone can use the Tesla network. Noone other than Tesla cars can!

And Teslas can use non-Tesla charging networks. Tesla should standardize on CCS plugs where it makes sense to (like they've done in Europe) and open their chargers up to other EVs. Tesla was recently denied a government subsidy in New York because they're not offering CCS charging, which is fair enough. If they're not going to make it available to all EVs then the utility of the infrastructure is limited and they sho…

Glad to hear about New York. We don't need more taxpayer money funding proprietary systems.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#222

Post by thekyle »

nardi wrote: post #57
sjwright wrote: post #10

The electric car industry hasn't remotely boomed. Electric cars are still deeply strangled by two key factors: industry inertia and the cost/supply of lithium batteries. Once those two factors are solved (and a build-up of lithium mines is key to that) electric cars will go from being a niche within a niche to utterly dominating the market very, very quickly. Within the next decade we might see companies like Hyundai…

> In my opinion Tesla needs to prepare to be in the budget space. They need to partner with an external manufacturer to sell a product with normal door handles that competes with Hyundai and Toyota. Because once the cost of batteries falls, I predict a substantial slice of their market will simply disappear to the economy manufacturers. I suspect that many people who love Telsa really just love the idea of electric v…

I know this comment was made in jest but it's completely correct. When the iPhone launched it was the smartphone market. It had 100% market share.

Apple didn't build products for the budget market and as a result they lost about 90% of their global market share to Android.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#223

Post by clouddrover »

ianai wrote: post #212
clouddrover wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, Toyota's still number one: https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expe... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/toyotas-a... Toyota has the most flexible production and the most reliable cars. Toyota isn't the biggest selling brand by accident.

I agree with both of you, cheekily. I genuinely can’t wait for Toyota to do a full BEV. I realize they say mainstream BEVs are a pipe dream still, but I think it’ll happen eventually.

Toyota announced their BEV plans a couple of months ago:

https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/28419929.html

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#224

Post by sliken »

sjwright wrote: post #218
Theodores wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> normal door handles The business plan always was to start at the high end with the Roadster, then the deluxe sedan and then the affordable Model 3. The Model 3 has cheaper door handles than the Model S. Tesla is about building car factories rather than cars. Once you have the robots doing as they are told then you can make whatever you want. If you had to recycle a Lamborghini and a Dacia Sandero then you would pro…

All true, but I still disagree that the Model 3 is affordable. It's still in the luxury space in terms of pricing.

Assume 12-15k miles a year and a 6-8 year useful life total cost to own and you might be surprised. People debate the details but even compared to a toyota camry or honda accord the model 3 is pretty affordable.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#225

Post by lancewiggs »

Retric wrote: post #21
sjwright wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course EVs are booming in relative terms. Things boom all the time in relative terms. That's not remarkable. The pure EV market will eventually dominate vehicle sales in most segments, and most of the rest will be PHEV. Have EVs even hit 1% of worldwide vehicle sales yet? Call me back when it passes 10% and we'll talk about an EV boom.

We are well past that 1%. Global EV Sales In May 2019: Over 179,000 At 2.3% Market Share https://insideevs.com/news/357198/global-ev-sales-in-may-201... The current trend is under 4 years until EV’s are 10% of global car sales. It’s likely adoption will slow down at some point, but 50% of all new car sales being EV could happen within 10 years. Though it would take much longer for EV’s to represent 1/2 of all cars on…

2.3% - at 60% annual growth would be ~100% in 8 years. Exponential growth is always unintuitive, but I'd expect many people in this community to understand it.

Next questions What is the sustainable growth rate? Higher than 60%? Lower?

And are we going to, in 10 years, see more EVs sold (for much less each) than ICE vehicles are sold today? The answer is we'd better, as we have to get those ICE vehicles off the road.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#226

Post by nrev »

There’s so much energy waste in electric cars from the greater number of times energy must be transferred specifically where it’s changing form. I don’t really see how this can be minimized or changed enough to make and electric car world (or even hybrid electric) scalable in a way that isn’t problematically energy-inefficient. So, I’m at least a little tired of the idea that electric cars are such a groundbreaking solution.

I have nothing against them/people who use them but I’m not convinced that it’s the solution to the looming crisis/possibly explosive break up in our love affair with crude oil. Plus, I’m a little afraid that here in the US we’re about a minute away from destroying Appalachia even moreso—I.e. due to particularly destructive coal mining practices and mountain topping, etc. So I’m apprehensive about increased strain on the power grid. (And I’m not keen on nuclear power either). But I welcome some kind of paradigm shift/future work that reveals I am wrong in this regard. It would be awesome if someone re-engineered and improved some aspects of these things rendering them more effective and less destructive.

(Edited at 2:24EST for typos)

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#227

Post by benj111 »

sjwright wrote: post #215
benj111 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"low cost Indian scooters" Would those actually be included in these figures?

I don't know, but they should be. Not doing so would be contemptuous for people of lower socio-economic means.

But if you include indian scooters, why not include pedelecs, or hover boards? And going the other way electric buses, and electric trains? Its useful to know the total number of electric people movers, its also useful to know how many electric cars there are. There is no moral component to that.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#228

Post by opsroller »

thekyle wrote: post #221
clouddrover wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Teslas can use non-Tesla charging networks. Tesla should standardize on CCS plugs where it makes sense to (like they've done in Europe) and open their chargers up to other EVs. Tesla was recently denied a government subsidy in New York because they're not offering CCS charging, which is fair enough. If they're not going to make it available to all EVs then the utility of the infrastructure is limited and they sho…

Glad to hear about New York. We don't need more taxpayer money funding proprietary systems.

Umm, Tesla open sourced all of their IP.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#229

Post by opsroller »

wongarsu wrote: post #144
cletus wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the constraints of what the power grid can support in terms of mass EV rollout? What about the charging infrastructure itself? The first point in particular doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves. As an example some places (try to) ban crypto mining because the extra power load effectively makes power more expensive for everyone. The residential grid is built with a particular established demand for…

The power grid is built to handle peak demand. Residential charging is likely to peak at night, when domestic demand is at its lowest. If natural charging patterns are not advantageous enough it's fairly straight forward to install smart meters that charge a different electricity price depending on time of day. The options range from simple off-peak pricing already offered in many places all the way up to live updati…

Hmm, if only there was a company who could help balance demand. https://www.tesla.com/megapack

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#230

Post by opsroller »

benj111 wrote: post #145
cletus wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the constraints of what the power grid can support in terms of mass EV rollout? What about the charging infrastructure itself? The first point in particular doesn't seem to get the attention it deserves. As an example some places (try to) ban crypto mining because the extra power load effectively makes power more expensive for everyone. The residential grid is built with a particular established demand for…

It seems like EVs would add 25% to electricity demand. The big question is how you deal with the peaks. Ideally all cars would be able to charge overnight, so you could potentially spread that demand over 12 hours or more. https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDes...

Hmm, if only there was a company who could help balance demand. https://www.tesla.com/megapack
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