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Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

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Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#221

Post by lsiunsuex »

Symbiote wrote: post #213
lsiunsuex wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the growl / sound / smell. The ability to modify, upgrade, "wrench on a car on the weekend" the ability to get beat on the track 1 weekend, drop a couple grand on new parts the next, then go back and beat them the following weekend. car shows and seeing a super charged mustang or camaro or twin turbos or something completely different someone came up with an idea for and built. the same way us programmers tinker and…

> the growl / sound / smell. (I'll be pleased when none of these (or the pollution) is within a city, but that's not my main point.) > Playing with 240 volts of batteries (or whatever it is, lol) (if there's anything to play with) - not so much I'm thinking, lol... An engineer friend spends all his spare time tweaking an electric motorcycle. There's a lot to control in software, and although there are far fewer compo…

> An engineer friend spends all his spare time tweaking an electric motorcycle. There's a lot to control in software

While an electric motorcycle might have a fairly simple ECU, something like my Mustang is a bit more complex. While software and hardware to modify the ECU coding yourself is available, as well as the training for it, most in the community highly advise against DIY and paying a pro (which most of us do) to do it for you. $200 to let someone who "knows" what their doing vs 1 wrong value and you blow a rod or crack the block...

> Maybe he could ask why you feel so safe with flammable liquids and toxic combustion products.

It would probably turn into the same discussion I have with friends as to why I'm more comfortable doing electrical work in a house, vs doing plumbing work. I've accepted the risk that if I get electrocuted, it's just me being screwed, vs if I screw up a plumbing solder, I can flood an entire house. With gasoline, I know what precautions to take and avoid an explosion. Vs the voltage / amperage on a tesla style battery pack, yeah, check it with a volt meter and make sure everything is grounded properly - but accidents will still occur.

There are precautions to take on both sides; there's new education on both sides; etc... More than anything, maybe it just falls to nostalgia; working on cars with dad made me work on cars when I got older. I'm not opposed to electric cars - I quite welcome them as a fact - I have a step son who wants to be a diesel engineer mechanic and I told him, may all well find classes for electric motors and get into that / get a head start (hes 15). As dad got me into cars, maybe my step son gets me into electric motors...

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#222

Post by mrguyorama »

floatrock wrote: post #92
mrguyorama wrote: post #73

As an idealist I'm glad to see the world transition away from fossil fuels in any capacity. As a "Car Guy" however, there is a small sadness that I won't really get to experience much of the internal combustion engine. I feel like I was born a decade too late and a lot too poor. Similar to some techies who feel the missed the early internet.

Why the sadness? As a "Car Guy" I'm thrilled about electric! Instant torque and acceleration, way more responsive than ICE. Just the other month there was the story where an electric shattered all the previous Pikes Peak records: https://www.teslarati.com/vw-id-r-electric-vehicle-pikes-pea... I mean, yeah, it doesn't have the same growl, but if you want raw performance, I'll take my spaceship whirl over rube goldberg…

Well seeing as being a hobbyist mechanic and a hobbyist electrician aren't even in the same ballpark, it's not hard to see how interest in the internal combustion engine does not transfer.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#223

Post by mrguyorama »

ska wrote: post #199
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You may not be able to drive your ICE car to the track though, might have to trailer it. Owning vehicle you have to trailer to the track is kind of like owning guns and using them to hunt in England. Yeah you can do it but all the red tape and cost results in practically only the landed gentry being able to justify such a costly hobby. That's really not the same.

I don't think that's a fair comparison. A lot of track vehicles used today are dedicated, and not necessarily expensive. Fundamentally there are difficult compromises to make a vehicle behave well on the street and track, after all - you can often be cheaper overall to have a daily driver and a track car/bike, and make fewer compromises. Also spend less of your time changing tires :)

Owning a trailer to move the vehicle means owning the storage for said vehicle, and a second vehicle that can tow. These are not minimal expenses where I can usually find work

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#224

Post by rootusrootus »

philipkglass wrote: post #202
rootusrootus wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Prius gets around 55 mpg, which with gas at 3.25/gal and electricity at 0.11/kWh means a Chevy Bolt, for example, costs just a little over half what the electric does, per mile. The electric also has a significantly higher capital cost and depreciation rate. I wouldn't be at all surprised if over, say, five years, the Prius has a cheaper TCO.

This is sensitive to local costs of both fuel and electricity. In my part of Washington state I last paid $3.43 per gallon of gasoline but residential electricity is about 6.5 cents per kWh. It looks like in Denmark electricity prices were 0.30 EUR (0.35 USD) per kWh in the second half of 2017, while gasoline prices are currently 12.26 DKK per liter (7.15 USD per US gallon).

Definitely it varies by location. The US national average price for fuel right now is 2.90, and the average cost per kWh for electricity is 0.12. Makes the running cost for the ICE vs EV even closer than my original numbers.

I kinda leave the European prices out of the discussion because what they pay tends to be extremely distorted by local taxes.

Based on a quick bit of TCO research, best I can tell is that without subsidies, EVs tend to have a TCO significantly higher than an efficient ICE vehicle. The market is young, obviously, and lots of EVs are aimed at people willing to pay a premium. A Model S, for example, has a TCO over five years of nearly 70 grand (!!). But, a Chevy Spark EV has a TCO of more like 20 grand, which is really showing how cheap they were due to GM dumping them at a loss and the big tax credit. A Prius is around 30K or so, for comparison.

I want an electric, and will get one as soon as there is something in the right price range with the characteristics I'm interested in (sporty, decent looking, sufficient range, reliable, good ergonomics). The Model 3 isn't too bad but it's more than I want to spend on a first-run car, and I won't buy any car with a single touchscreen as the sole interface.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#225

Post by pedrocr »

bluGill wrote: post #184
cptaj wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely agree with you about infrastructure. Its definitely coming and will cover most use cases. But I do wonder how we're gonna cover that last mile. Adding hundreds of miles of range to an ICE car is hilariously simple, just a couple of plastic containers in the trunk and you're good to go. Can't add extra batteries like that. Energy density is not a truism. Maybe portable ICE generators, sort of like hybrid…

There are power lines to most places already. The utility replaces/upgrades them on a schedule (IIRC the expected lifespan for overhead lines last for 17 years, underground for 15). Which is to say the infrastructure is mostly there, and just needs updates that would happen anyway.

This seems so clear and yet we get the "how are we going to build this huge charging network" all over the place. If the situation was reversed we'd consider it preposterous to think we could build a network of gas stations that get their fuel driven in by trucks. The current network is far crazier than just adding a bunch of outlets that use the existing and extremely robust electricity grid that's already in place.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#226

Post by ska »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #204
ska wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's a fair comparison. A lot of track vehicles used today are dedicated, and not necessarily expensive. Fundamentally there are difficult compromises to make a vehicle behave well on the street and track, after all - you can often be cheaper overall to have a daily driver and a track car/bike, and make fewer compromises. Also spend less of your time changing tires :)

Most automotive enthusiasts don't have track vehicles, most have street-able vehicles they take to the track (or whatever their preferred event is). This is even more true for 4x4s and drag racing. Saying "well having a vehicle you trailer to the event is cheaper" assumes a baseline amount of money being spent that is more than most people have to dedicate to the hobby. That cuts out the entire low end of the hobby.

I agree it cuts out the very low end, but there are a ton of people left that have either dedicated or nearly dedicated (e.g. road legal but never really used for anything else).

The lowest end of the hobby will change, obviously. Not convinced it will completely go away. I think my point was it isn't a crazy bump in expense to have a vehicle you play with only on the track, though it may not be the same vehicle.

And yes, it means you can't easily drive your hobby car out to a drag strip to see what it will do. Or a bunch of other things. But it doesn't mean there is no hobby to be had - at least I hope so.

4x4 is interesting, i hadn't considered but suspect that will be under more pressure than track days.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#227

Post by pedrocr »

jimmaswell wrote: post #97
NeedMoreTea wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, now I take the opposite view. Denmark may have some fairly onerous taxes, but that seems to be more than made up for by the quality of life, healthcare, education and so on. I have two good friends who moved from UK to Denmark, both high earners with families, neither would consider returning to the UK for a millisecond. As UK austerity continues and Brexit nears I'm thinking of it myself. The USA's ridiculously…

Is a tax a subsidy if you personally find it too low? I find it completely worthwhile "subsidizing" personal vehicles. Everything else just feels oppressive in comparison (barring scenarios like bicycling being faster than the gridlock in Manhattan). Quality of life seems much better to me not being forced into transit or having to bike everywhere, so it makes sense to me for the government to invest in it. How big w…

> 98 Ford Escort ZX2 to a Jeep Grand Cherokee and the handling is just as good if not better

Unless the Escort was broken this seems too rose tinted a view. Large SUVs like that may be comfortable but they definitely don't handle well.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#228

Post by frockington »

josu wrote: post #10

There is a long list of countries that decided to ban fossil fuel burning cars in the upcoming years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_foss... Personally, I don't think the ban will ever be enforced. It will create the right incentives and most car sales will be electric, but there will still be fossil fuel burning car sales.

There is an easy way out too: "We believe mandating the purchase of a new car may be difficult for some families and may inadvertently discriminate against the poor". Add some buzzwords like "singe mother", "working through college", and "recently laid off" and it'll be one of the easiest regulations to walk out of, assuming anyone remembers in 2030

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#229

Post by atombender »

tom_ wrote: post #220
atombender wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP is using US gallons, though.

Are you sure? There are cars that are that efficient, but as an average ? In real life?

I'm sure that they were using US gallons. Whether this is data is accurate is another matter.

According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), Europe averaged 46 MPG (US gallons, "normalized to CAFE test cycles") in 2015 [1], compared to something like 37 MPG in the US.

This NY Times article [2] summarizes the report, with some nice graphs.

[1] https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/201...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/03/climate/us-fu...

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#230

Post by zepearl »

IB885588 wrote: post #128
IB885588 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the Life cycle analysis I've seen (don't have the sources handy) have shown that the vast majority of an ICE's car's impact is from the fuel that is burned and not from production, usually around 80% driving and less than 20% production.

If you look at page 29 of this LCA by Audi, you can see that they show an ICE car's impact at about 20% manufacturing, 80% usage, and around 1% recycling at the end of life: https://www.audi.com/content/dam/com/EN/corporate-responsibi...

Mmmhh, Audi is Volkswagen (and Audi's cars were involved as well in the emissions scandal), so I'm kind of sceptic about their credibility (meaning "let's not forget too quickly").

As they have as well a direct interest in saying "buying new/our cars isn't that harmful as you think", their doc makes me even more sceptic... :)

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