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‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
221–230 of 289 posts
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're not wrong about that, but I don't think it disproves my point at all. What value exactly are you going to get from predicting recessions within a two year window?
A lot of people don’t even have 3-4 month expense savings in case they lose their jobs. Knowing a recession is coming at some point in next 4 years would help them.
What can people do to prepare for a recession in the next 6 years?
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Of course this is going to end terribly. It is basically guaranteed to do so unless the business cycle has stopped for good (unlikely). The question in my mind is who the scapegoat is going to be, and how much denial there's going to be if the real effects of slowing growth start becoming apparent.
With any luck (sorry), the crash happens just prior to Election Day.
Not likely. All the new jobs and lower taxes will keep it boosted for a long time.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're not wrong about that, but I don't think it disproves my point at all. What value exactly are you going to get from predicting recessions within a two year window?
A lot of people don’t even have 3-4 month expense savings in case they lose their jobs. Knowing a recession is coming at some point in next 4 years would help them.
A pretty significant portion of those people lack savings for reasons other than choice (and I'd wager a significant portion of those who do lack savings because they just can't be bothered probably won't bother if there maybe might be a recession eventually, probably perpetually convincing themselves they can just put money into savings later)
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#225An article from 2005 with the same prediction: http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_... The recession didn't happen until 2-3 years after that, making me question the utility of such predictions. "A recession will happen - eventually" is about as useful as predicting your own eventual demise.
The S&P on roughly that date was 1268. In the depths of the recession, it reached as low as 684.
684 was at the close.
The intraday low was 666.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#226Assuming there's a recession coming what is a good investment strategy?
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#227The difference is that a powerful group of people is enacting policies that have triggered recession/depression in the past and no good historical precedent/academic support for working. It's seems kind of crazy to me we're ignoring that part. We're starting trade wars on multiple fronts, exiting or weakening multilateral alliances (and simultaneous giving an advantage to our global adversaries), and weakening the ba…
>Of course this is going to end terribly. It is basically guaranteed to do so unless the business cycle has stopped for good (unlikely). The question in my mind is who the scapegoat is going to be, and how much denial there's going to be if the real effects of slowing growth start becoming apparent.
> The question in my mind is who the scapegoat is going to be
Step 1 - do dumb and harmful things to increase your popularity among ignorant supporters
Step 2 - blame the innocent for the inevitable crisis
Step 3 - use the crisis you created to justify more dumb and harmful things
Step 4 - multiple crises cascade into catastrophe
Step 5 - use the catastrophe to justify emergency powers, suspend due process, arrest political opponents, mobilize local militias to "restore law and order"
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#228The difference is that a powerful group of people is enacting policies that have triggered recession/depression in the past and no good historical precedent/academic support for working. It's seems kind of crazy to me we're ignoring that part. We're starting trade wars on multiple fronts, exiting or weakening multilateral alliances (and simultaneous giving an advantage to our global adversaries), and weakening the ba…
>Of course this is going to end terribly. It is basically guaranteed to do so unless the business cycle has stopped for good (unlikely). The question in my mind is who the scapegoat is going to be, and how much denial there's going to be if the real effects of slowing growth start becoming apparent.
It will be the fault of the party not in power. The autocrat will demand that his opponent in the general be locked up for it...
and so it goes.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of people don’t even have 3-4 month expense savings in case they lose their jobs. Knowing a recession is coming at some point in next 4 years would help them.
What can people do to prepare for a recession in the next 6 years?
Without knowing anyone's individual situation it's hard to answer, but at the very least you should have 3-6 months expenses in a money market / savings account. You don't want to be in situation where you are forced to liquidate assets at below market prices.
Re: ‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention
#230Why do central banks still want to drive down long-term interest rates?