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Netflix is now worth more than $100B

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Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#221

Post by Johnny555 »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #48
eldavido wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of sophisticated financial people share your thinking. The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. People are cheering for 3% GDP growth in the US. Interest rates are at all-time historical lows, meaning discount rates are lower than they've ever been. These macro trends have added up to an environment where people are willing to pay staggering premiums for even a remote shot at growth. It's affectin…

> The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. Cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Applied neural networks. Automation. Good electric cars. To the point where people are prepaying for something that might be built in a few years. Good cheap batteries.

> Automation

It seems like this is the opposite of growth - as more jobs are automated, fewer people will be able to buy the products that are created by the automation.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#222

Post by [deleted] »

eropple wrote: post #217
toomuchtodo wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren’t their costs going up at least 25-30% because of Meltdown/Spectre mitigation performance penalties? Would they weather another 10-20% price hike on top of that?

25-30% is pretty pessimistic. Maybe on certain services, like a Redis box. On others, like your average web service, it probably won't move the needle much. I'd ballpark around 5%. And that's for people who weren't overprovisioned in the first place, which is most people.

[deleted]

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#223

Post by repsilat »

edpichler wrote: post #143
iamgopal wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How stock price follow it ? In a hypothetical scenario, if company declare not to pay any dividend any time in the future, nobody will invest in it no matter what.

Because the money is on the bank, and it's shareholders property. The shareholders can change the administration council and hire people that will use the accumulated money to make more money, or use it paying dividends. The shareholders are the bosses, and chooses who occupies the administration council. I don't know if my hypothetical example was clear.

If the company is closely held the shareholders may not be able to meaningfully affect the composition of the board of directors, and so may not be able to extract any value from it except in bankruptcy.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#224

Post by brisance »

jonknee wrote: post #137
brucephillips wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There absolutely is. For a company to be valuable, it must return more profit to shareholders than they put in. The P/E ratio indicates how long it will take for this to happen.

Not really, it indicates how long if nothing changes over the long term. Which never happens. Netflix is growing very rapidly which makes P/E all but meaningless for "how long" questions.

The metric that Netflix uses is subscriber count, and all indications is that the subscriber count is not growing at a pace that explains the PE ratio. In fact the growth is declining as evidenced by their guidance for the quarter.

http://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-q4-earnings-report-an...

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#225

Post by chrisper »

These days I prefer Amazon video content. It's also significantly cheaper. 5 bucks instead of 20. Then you add the fact that their Android app is bad and that not even Netflix Originals are available globally, Netflix doesn't seem to be that great.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#226

Post by vlovich123 »

jjeaff wrote: post #204
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What value is being created here, exactly? It's the greatest advance in money laundering ever invented. For that to work the proles need to be conned into participating so there is plenty of transaction volume to hide in.

It's really not a great way to launder money. To keep it off the books, you will need armies of individuals going out and buying it with cash through forums or whatever. Same to convert it back to cash. Otherwise, you are just buying and selling it through exchanged who, in the US, are going to report it on your 1099k. Otherwise, you have to have a seemingly legitimate Enterprise that is accepting Bitcoin on a large…

I started a X business that only sells widget Y for bitcoins. You shuffle all the coins through intermediary wallets that use small payments. The current transaction fee is $20 but regardless of what it is you just scale how much you transfer based on that. Also, if you set up many dummy coinbase accounts, you can use GDAX to exchange it for fiat without fees so you really just need to funnel it into a lot of coinbase accounts that then progressively funnel it to you over time. You can set up a lot of coinbase accounts in a week if you task 50 employees for a week. The rest can probably be automated if you cared enough.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#227

Post by azemetre »

jedberg wrote: post #98
anilshanbhag wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, Amazon also has lot of assets. They have logistics networks across multiple countries, warehouses, data centers, etc. May not be commensurate to their market cap but it does give them a solid moat.

Netflix has assets too. They own a whole bunch of original shows and movies. For comparison, The Big Bang Theory has been worth a couple billion to CBS just in syndication. They also have a worldwide CDN capable of delivering high definition video around the world. And lastly, they have 20 years of movie viewing history. Their prediction models alone are probably worth many billions to the movie studios.

Netflix doesn't even own a studio, they pay others to produce their content.

They don't syndicate their shows, they don't sell much merchandise, and they don't sell their "prediction models" or user data.

Don't get me wrong, Netflix does a lot of things right but the way they manage their entertainment divisions is extremely odd. We have over a 100 years of lessons from Hollywood and paying others to produce your content will always be more expensive than making your own.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#228

Post by puranjay »

anilshanbhag wrote: post #19

The entire stock market feels like its in a bubble. Netflix stock gained more than 25% in the past one month. Their free cash flow (FCF) has been negative every single quarter and will be for many quarters to come. Stocks trade based on discounted cash flow(DCF). Netflix however produces no material return for investors and still majority of the analysts keep putting higher and higher price targets, its like they are…

Everything feels like a bubble to me, from property prices to crypto.

I'm doing fairly well in my career but I'll have to earn literally 3x my current income to afford the mortgage on a decent apartment in my area.

Something feels very wrong about all of this

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#229

Post by puranjay »

chrisper wrote: post #225

These days I prefer Amazon video content. It's also significantly cheaper. 5 bucks instead of 20. Then you add the fact that their Android app is bad and that not even Netflix Originals are available globally, Netflix doesn't seem to be that great.

My biggest problem with Netflix is discovery. I don't want to watch a new show because I don't want to commit myself to 50 episodes. And I don't even know if I'll like the show.

I just want to channel surf, like on TV. Just let me press a button and let me go through a bunch of videos so I can decide which one I like by watching it

Re: Netflix is now worth more than $100B

#230

Post by KhanMahGretsch »

losteric wrote: post #85
eldavido wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of sophisticated financial people share your thinking. The problem is there's no growth to be found anywhere. People are cheering for 3% GDP growth in the US. Interest rates are at all-time historical lows, meaning discount rates are lower than they've ever been. These macro trends have added up to an environment where people are willing to pay staggering premiums for even a remote shot at growth. It's affectin…

To what degree does income inequality, consumer debt, and rapidly rising barriers of entry to high-income fields contribute slowing GDP growth? Is there research and evidence on the subject? I'm just an engineer with basic financial survival skills... but blind intuition suggests fixing those problems is necessary for a sustainable growing economy. "Trickle-down" theory and growing inequality drains economic activity…

I think this is a good, probing comment, and I would invite you to consider one more factor, because it's a major one: government debt and unfunded liabilities. This amounts to trillions in the U.S., a number so large it defies comprehension. A common solution offered is to simply "tax more", but it's clear that gov spending, by and large, bonkers. I'm sure the reasons for this are the same ones that keep that fat-cats plump, but the big-picture IMO is solving the looming debt-crisis; without that, solving the issues you raised could be for naught.

(edit: removed precise amount of US debt because figure is debatable and I don't want to get caught in weeds. It's a $BIG_NUMBER.

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