A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating • Hacker News Board

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#221

Post by TylerE » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 3:45 AM UTC

wmeredith wrote: post #196

ethbro wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$10k premium + accelerated depreciation And in 3 years, I'll have all those features on my used Toyota. ;)

And if you buy a used luxury sedan, you can have all that stuff now. Go pick up a 2006 Lexus LS430 with 150,000 Mike's on it for $10,000; they were $70k new and have all those whizbang safety features and it's a Toyota Avalon underneath. You can put 400,000 miles on them if you treat them right. You can do the same thing with the big German luxury sedans, but upkeep will be more. Those aren't Toyotas underneath. It's…

You couldn't be more wrong.

Built on a totally different platform than the Avalon (The Avalon is even FWD)

No pre-collision braking (A partial system was included on some Japanese models, but none on the US model)

No blindspot monitoring

So, hardly "all that stuff".

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#222

Post by ams6110 » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 3:46 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #27

aianus wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it so dumb to buy a used car off the lot? I bought an Audi off lease last year. It's still under warranty, free maintenance (until 80k km), low mileage (37k km), fully loaded with options, and I saved $20k vs a new one.

> Why is it so dumb to buy a used car off the lot? It's not. The parent doesn't appear to understand the used car market in the US. Most people are not buying their used cars for $6,000 off of craigslist, that's a good way to end up with a pile of junk. It's a bad idea to buy a mid-value or higher used car outside the CPO or remaining original warranty programs if you can help it, ideally from a dealer.

Not my experience at all. Do a little research on which brands and models are reliable. Find a nicely maintained example of one of those offered by a private seller. It's going to be way cheaper than a dealer in my experience.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#223

Post by kalleboo » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 3:47 AM UTC

LeifCarrotson wrote: post #193

gutnor wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brand new flat or house built today in Madrid, Spain are fitted at best with a 20A connection. The standing charge alone is more than what I pay for electricity (standing charge and consumption) in a 2 bed flat in London. The vast majority of flat and house I have seen in Spain have 15A or 20A. That includes city, and country houses. It is a cost cutting measure rather than an infrastructure limitation (people chose…

Seriously, 20A? How do you even run an air conditioner on that, much less an entire house? 200A (at 240V split phase) is standard here in the Midwestern US. It's easy and cheap to get more if you want a better connection, such as for an EV or a home shop with welders and large motors.

> How do you even run an air conditioner on that, much less an entire house?

My guess is "they don't". A quick web search reveals less than 50% market penetration in homes of air conditioners.

That said I live in an apartment with 30A 100V service, and I've run 3 air conditioners at the same time no problem.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#224

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 3:53 AM UTC

grzm wrote: post #215

KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can the price of gas can be at or near cost, when the difference between two stations across the road from each other can be easily 20%?

Can you provide a concrete example? I can't recall ever seeing such a disparity in the US having lived in the midwest, northwest, and east coast. Perhaps you're in a different location?

[deleted]

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#225

Post by KKKKkkkk1 » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 3:56 AM UTC

grzm wrote: post #215

KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can the price of gas can be at or near cost, when the difference between two stations across the road from each other can be easily 20%?

Can you provide a concrete example? I can't recall ever seeing such a disparity in the US having lived in the midwest, northwest, and east coast. Perhaps you're in a different location?

Burlingame CA, California Dr @ Broadway. A & A Gas has regular at $2.72, while Chevron is at $3.20.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#226

Post by grzm » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 3:58 AM UTC

KKKKkkkk1 wrote: post #225

grzm wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide a concrete example? I can't recall ever seeing such a disparity in the US having lived in the midwest, northwest, and east coast. Perhaps you're in a different location?

Burlingame CA, California Dr @ Broadway. A & A Gas has regular at $2.72, while Chevron is at $3.20.

Wow. I wonder what economic factors are at play here.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#227

Post by alexanderstears » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 4:01 AM UTC

wmeredith wrote: post #196

ethbro wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$10k premium + accelerated depreciation And in 3 years, I'll have all those features on my used Toyota. ;)

And if you buy a used luxury sedan, you can have all that stuff now. Go pick up a 2006 Lexus LS430 with 150,000 Mike's on it for $10,000; they were $70k new and have all those whizbang safety features and it's a Toyota Avalon underneath. You can put 400,000 miles on them if you treat them right. You can do the same thing with the big German luxury sedans, but upkeep will be more. Those aren't Toyotas underneath. It's…

Not going to pile on the Avalon comment.

But the LS430s aren't really comparable to the current gen Toyota safety systems. The LS430s have dynamic cruise control but they won't bring the car to a complete stop, the dynamic cruise control in the 01-03s is a little weird (and I think it has some reliability problems). And the dynamic cruise control is bundled with the Ultra Luxury package which has a lot of stuff to break (an extra A/C unit for the rear, air suspension, and double thick glass that can fog internally if it cracks).

The Modern Luxury trim cars have the dynamic cruise control without the air suspension, a/c unit, and a few other gizmos but they're really rare.

And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it, but the 01-03 LS430 is probably the best used car value in America. You can get a decent one for 5k (they'll ask for 7k but tell them to pound sand) and they're unbelievably nice. They're not Avalons, but they drive like every Toyota ever just with more poise and fluidity.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#228

Post by mysterypie » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 4:01 AM UTC

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #134

rawrmaan wrote: post #17

Interesting that this has nothing to do with ride sharing (or at least the article doesn't cite that as a reason). I think autonomy and ride sharing will drive used cars nearer to the value of scrap metal within the next 5 years.

Your comment displays the incredible social and economic compartmentalization between the Silicon Valley/tech hubs of the country and everywhere else. Uber is not a viable alternative to vehicle ownership for the majority of places in the country, particularly in poorer and more rural areas, and likely never will be. When you've got to drive 20 miles to reach town, ordering an Uber doubles the time required to get th…

80% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas of at least 2500 people, and 71% live in places of 50,000 or more[1]. So most people don't need to drive 20 miles to reach town.

You're right that Silicon Valley lives in a cocoon, but more than a few occasions where I thought a SV idea or trend was stupid, unaffordable, and unneeded, it turned out that a few years later the entire world had adopted it. I remember thinking who the hell needs a smartphone and who'd pay for that. Then 6 or 7 years later I saw beggars in a third-world country with smartphones. Beggars.

I'm not ready to say that autonomous cars and ride sharing will be the norm in 5 years, but just because there are poor and rural people in middle America doesn't mean it won't happen.

[1] https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rural-2010.htm...

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#229

Post by alexanderstears » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 4:01 AM UTC

TylerE wrote: post #221

wmeredith wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if you buy a used luxury sedan, you can have all that stuff now. Go pick up a 2006 Lexus LS430 with 150,000 Mike's on it for $10,000; they were $70k new and have all those whizbang safety features and it's a Toyota Avalon underneath. You can put 400,000 miles on them if you treat them right. You can do the same thing with the big German luxury sedans, but upkeep will be more. Those aren't Toyotas underneath. It's…

You couldn't be more wrong. Built on a totally different platform than the Avalon (The Avalon is even FWD) No pre-collision braking (A partial system was included on some Japanese models, but none on the US model) No blindspot monitoring So, hardly "all that stuff".

Here's an easy way to be more wrong:

The LS430 is basically a Toyota Cavalier.

Or - the LS430 is basically a Toyota Century.

Re: A glut has used-car depreciation accelerating

#230

Post by maherbeg » Wed, Aug 23, 2017, 4:03 AM UTC

Hasz wrote: post #178

grecy wrote: post #32

With many countries tabling laws to outlaw the sale of diesel and gasoline cars around 2030, this is going to accelerate extremely quickly. In 5 years (2022), everyone will know it will be illegal to buy a gasoline car in just under 8 years. I think there will be very little demand for the regular old gas powered car. (excepting maybe exotics, or "pleasure drives", which much be a tiny fraction of overall sales) That…

Liquid cancer? C'mon, that's a bit extreme. Getting down to the point, can you imagine the political fallout from crushing the value of a gas car? It's a truck sized political landmine, and no party is willing to touch that thing with a hundred foot stick. Gas still has significant advantages that electric has yet to match. Worst gas has 53x the specific energy of the best Li-ion, and even with a hundred % efficient…

I think you might be a bit off here on the extent to which the average driver will be needing gasoline.

Tesla's have less than 10% battery degradation after 8 years so far.

What will happen is people will buy an electric car as a second car. They'll get comfortable charging every night and then buy a Chevy volt like car that usually won't need gas but can range extender as needed. A large portion of those users will realize you don't even need the range extender most of the time.