Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure 'pariah' was the word you were looking for?
Trying to figure out what word he wanted... prophet?
Expert.
Tesla to raise $1B
221–230 of 334 posts
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
How did they gather comprehensive data like that? Seems like you'd need an employee to watch every employee, recording everything they did.
The line is Body Shop->Paint->Trim->Chassis->Final Vehicle. Final Vehicle is concerned with testing and certification and whatever other finishing touches need to be performed. It also operates the repair department, and the 'yard' with all the defect jobs. Our yard was so packed the company was renting new yards away from the factory. The repairmen who worked in the bays and yard were stone cold experts on the vehic…
Binary search :)
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla aims to have razor thin margins for the thing that they actually produce. So their lack of dealers who supply an automatic mark-up is something that they cite as a strength, not a weakness. The thing that Tesla is producing, however, is really expensive to build right now. The cost curves are great for it to come down, but until they do they are in the ironic business of selling expensive things with thin margi…
> So their lack of dealers who supply an automatic mark-up is something that they cite as a strength, not a weakness. They don't have an automatic mark-up, but car dealers also operate on razor thin margins (the real money is in service and trade ins). However dealers pay their own rent and even spend money advertising. Tesla is on the hook for all of its dealerships, a significant cost that its competitors don't hav…
It also makes it easier to service your car. If you own a Tesla and need warranty service, and you live in middle America, you may have a long drive ahead of you. If you own a Chevy, it's rarely a problem.
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
Arguably the Model 3 is not a high end luxury car either, not priced at $35k. The Bolt is a direct competitor to the Model 3 with first-mover advantage. The only argument against that is one has a badge that says "Chevrolet" and the other says "Tesla". If the Model 3 didn't have the Tesla name, no one would think anything of it. It'd just be yet another compact electric car, yawn, who cares, and then they'd buy the C…
I'd say that the model 3 is comparable (in price also) to the BMW 320i. The Chevrolet Bolt is similar in price, but I think somebody making a comparison between a BMW and a Chevy would be similarly mistaken. BMW and Tesla are luxury car manufacturer. Chevrolet isn't. IMHO, the bolt is overpriced. It's a crossover SUV from a manufacturer that is known for making low cost, high-volume cars. It looks like it is most sim…
The Bolt is not a crossover SUV. It's a compact hatchback car with low ride height.
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#225Uber as a ponzi scheme of ambition 1/ Basic premise was they keep highlighting their entry into larger and larger markets and so investors keep ponying up $ for the ambition. 2/ First, it was taxis 3/ Then, it was taxis + logistics 4/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership 5/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous 6/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous, trucking 7 / Then taxis, logist…
I'm going to second aerovistae. I think there are plenty of glaring differences between Uber and Tesla that make your comparison just amount to throwing shade:
1. First, I haven't heard many people argue that they think Musk's end state isn't viable. That is, Musk has already proven you can build a great electric car, the question is just whether he can solve the production issues and scale up (especially battery production) fast enough before he runs out of money. But if he does get there before he runs out of money, people agree he will have huge moats around his business with his technology, brand desirability and the gigafactory. Contrast this with Uber, where a lot of people think that in the end state (when VC money stops subsidizing every ride) that it will essentially be a commodity business with very poor economic fundamentals.
2. Uber has had story after story of fundamental problems with their corporate culture, while everything I've read about Tesla appears to be almost the exact opposite.
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#226As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…
> A modern car company
Tesla is a battery / energy company.
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
I absolutely love Musk and the idea of Telsa. Hell, I would love to get me a Model S, if I could. But I completely agree with you. I think the Model 3 will end up costing way more that $35k, to turn a profit. The timeline will slip and it won't come out until 2018. The whole solar city deal was premature. I think Musk knows this isn't going to work, at least for a while. I think he knows Telsa is going to have a more…
I think the Model 3 will end up costing way more that $35k, to turn a profit. That's Tesla's biggest risk - they can't deliver profitably at the price point they pre-sold at. The Model 3 is an ambitious car to sell for $35K. Tesla is not a "lean manufacturing" operation; their head counts at the auto plant per car sold are currently quite high. They'll probably get that figured out eventually, but meanwhile, they nee…
> It assumes Government subsidies for solar, which may be going away for political reasons.
Isn't their car operation also vulnerable? Tax credits may be less easy to get rid of, from a political perspective, but I think Trump would be far more interested in promoting cars that run on coal than cars that run on electricity.
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#228As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…
I absolutely love Musk and the idea of Telsa. Hell, I would love to get me a Model S, if I could. But I completely agree with you. I think the Model 3 will end up costing way more that $35k, to turn a profit. The timeline will slip and it won't come out until 2018. The whole solar city deal was premature. I think Musk knows this isn't going to work, at least for a while. I think he knows Telsa is going to have a more…
Chevy Bolt is $37,500 MSRP, and GM likely turns a profit on it (once the R&D investment is recouped), are Tesla's unit economics way worse?
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#229As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…
I test-drove an AP2 car. After a disastrous ride in which it tried to hit two parked cars and a trashcan and wanted to drive off the road entirely, the sales person said, with a straight face, that it was great for stop and go traffic on 101. I'm a bit amazed they can currently sell cars.
That sounds nuts; it seems like a huge liability that they are putting AP2 in the hands of consumers when it can be more dangerous than just the average driver...
Re: Tesla to raise $1B
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
I absolutely love Musk and the idea of Telsa. Hell, I would love to get me a Model S, if I could. But I completely agree with you. I think the Model 3 will end up costing way more that $35k, to turn a profit. The timeline will slip and it won't come out until 2018. The whole solar city deal was premature. I think Musk knows this isn't going to work, at least for a while. I think he knows Telsa is going to have a more…
I think the Model 3 will end up costing way more that $35k, to turn a profit. That's Tesla's biggest risk - they can't deliver profitably at the price point they pre-sold at. The Model 3 is an ambitious car to sell for $35K. Tesla is not a "lean manufacturing" operation; their head counts at the auto plant per car sold are currently quite high. They'll probably get that figured out eventually, but meanwhile, they nee…
> It assumes Government subsidies for solar, which may be going away for political reasons.
Residential solar costs average out at 15c per kWh, post 30% tax credit. If the credit goes away, the 20c per kWh generation cost is still competitive compared to utility's retail rate. The bet is on solar technologies to continue incremental gains in efficiency, pushing the final price per kWh down.
In the commercial and industrial world the cost can be driven down significantly since the installations are larger (4c per kWh is the lowest I've seen), and the one-time installation costs are recouped faster, so that sector is likely to grow with or without tax credits. It's subject to the same efficiency metrics as consumer-grade tech.