Sweden brings back military conscription • Hacker News Board

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#221

Post by ptaipale » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:45 PM UTC

pm90 wrote: post #140

cjslep wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would be interested in the Winter War between Finland and Soviet Russia in 1939. Finland absolutely outperformed the Red Army to such an extreme that it convinced Hitler invading Soviet Russia was not going to be a problem at all. Nothing more entertaining in my mind than Finns chucking logs into tank treads to disable an entire armored division. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

It wouldn't pan out that well today though. I don't see how Sweden could ever stand up to a modernized Russian military without external assistance. But they would probably fare better than Ukraine.

It's not that Sweden or Finland could alone stop Russia from conquering their territory. It's that they would make it costly to achieve, and much, much costlier to maintain.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#222

Post by alkonaut » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:45 PM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #6

How do you motivate a conscript? When I was in the British Army, which is volunteer only, commanding a basic training troop if someone was wanted to give up we could say to them 'if this isn't for you then you can go home' (of course we did coach and mentor people to help them, I mean in cases where people just give up and stop soldiering when an exercise gets tough). They usually worked extremely hard to get into th…

It's a difficult problem. I did it in '97 which was one of the last years in which all (men at that time) were required to do it, and more than half actually did. We were many who hated it. The budget wasn't enough to train that many, leading to lots of down time and low excercise budgets. Pay was ~$10 per day iirc. I envied those who could go to university instead.

Fun fact I got the same model of heavy iron sight carbine that my dad used in 1970 (not all units were equipped with the newer ones in 97 - ironic considering we now probably have 5 guns per soldier...). The basic training was good and I don't regret doing it even though I hated it.

I'm thinking this is a necessary move if we need a large fraction of the population trained. If the pay is half decent and the selection is small enough that volunteers are enough - then it's only a pseudo conscript system imho.

> you should fix that.

I think there are people who would be very interested in solutions

I think very high minimum wages, low unemployment and free higher educations doesn't help - the military is having a hard time competing for people coming out of school.

I think this particular system will work because attracting just a few thousand should be possible if the pay isn't silly and the training gets a reputation for being good even for people who don't pursue a career in the military.

One key is making it an attractive career. That idea has been utterly ruined by the turmoil of recent years, now no one trusts that they can have a long term career in the military. Who knows what size the military is in 10 years ? Can be 10x smaller. Or bigger. We were too quick to scale it back. A stable organization is key.

Another idea is to let people 18-25 choose when they want to do it. Having an opportunity to do a conscript year when you happen to be between jobs etc would be perfect. I wasn't really ready when I was 18.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#223

Post by gspetr » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:46 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #48

thedevil wrote: post #13

I'm not sure why Sweden would be concerned. I read Russian news/propaganda occasionally. Over the last few years, Russian news/propaganda prepared Russian minds for interfering in Ukraine. And the propaganda includes arguments to justify a military buildup. And it seems to be preparing Russian minds for a possible invasion of Baltic states one day. But I don't think I've even seen Sweden mentioned in Russian news/pro…

Lots of countries weren't a target when Germany decided to annex most of Europe. Neutrality worked for a lot of countries in WWI, but Germany was like "well screw you". Ukraine never asked to be invaded by Russia.

Germany wanted resources and territory, "living space for the aryan race". Russia has more than enough of both.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#224

Post by eveningcoffee » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:48 PM UTC

anticodon wrote: post #175

BurningFrog wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A credible deterrent in 2020 is not 200k dudes with guns. It's air and naval power. Expensive and complex hi tech death machines. Of course, a 10m country will never have a really credible defense against nuclear super power Russia by itself.

Why would Russia want to invade Sweden? This is political fearmongering and bullshit.

Russia has attacked other nations next too its borders, if Sweden can not project any acceptable military strength then Russia may potentially target Sweden with limited territory takeover (its strategically located islands for example) or just threaten to use force to support its political motivations. Why? Because they can.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#225

Post by h4nkoslo » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:49 PM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #6

How do you motivate a conscript? When I was in the British Army, which is volunteer only, commanding a basic training troop if someone was wanted to give up we could say to them 'if this isn't for you then you can go home' (of course we did coach and mentor people to help them, I mean in cases where people just give up and stop soldiering when an exercise gets tough). They usually worked extremely hard to get into th…

The traditional answer is various ways of forced community-building (collective punishment & reward, forming in/outgroups, etc) as a way of building loyalty to their individual unit.

Also note that in modern militaries, the ratio of behind-the-lines support troops to front-line trigger pullers is absurdly high. Depending on the country, you can end up with conscripts e.g. running the vehicle pool and doing logistics while the core infantry is essential volunteer.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#226

Post by ocschwar » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:51 PM UTC

mynameishere wrote: post #213

ocschwar wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As others have pointed out, if the nation state you live in does not have a secure hold on its territory, then you can either lose some of your freedom to conscription, or lose a whole lot more in foreign occupation.

So, will the new Swedish conscripts be securing any territory?

What do you think they'll be doing?>

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#227

Post by ptaipale » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:52 PM UTC

gspetr wrote: post #209

anticodon wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would Russia want to invade Sweden? This is political fearmongering and bullshit.

That's what keeps puzzling me. Everyone throws the word "Russia" around without providing any kind of reason as to why it would invade any of those countries in the first place. Do they have Russian military bases of strategic importance? No. Do they have population that is ethnically Russian? No.

It's not just what the neighbours have. It's what Russia is and has.

Do they have a leader who is disconnected from regular life, poses in absurd settings and gets his information from intelligence agencies? Check.

Do they have a political system that has an internally dysfunctional economy and that needs external enemies to keep people from looking at what happens domestically? Check.

Do they repress internal opposition? Check.

Do they despise democracy? Check.

Do they have a media that is spreading propaganda about neighbours and is controlled by the government? Check.

Do they think in terms of "spheres of influence"? Check.

There are enough parallels to Stalin's USSR to make neighbours worried.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#228

Post by mrob » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:52 PM UTC

ptaipale wrote: post #217

mrob wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conscription is slavery, and many conscripts will consider themselves to have a moral obligation to resist slavery. If you give them access to the whole military machine you greatly increase the opportunities for sabotage. With the traditional rifles in trenches style each individual conscript has very limited chance to fight back, and you can always call them traitors and murder them if they try.

Conscription is a form of taxation. Many say taxation is slavery, but the argument doesn't hold very well.

False, because taxes can be paid with money from any source. Conscription can only be paid with labor from your own body.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#229

Post by ptaipale » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:54 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #164

BurningFrog wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A credible deterrent in 2020 is not 200k dudes with guns. It's air and naval power. Expensive and complex hi tech death machines. Of course, a 10m country will never have a really credible defense against nuclear super power Russia by itself.

>A credible deterrent in 2020 is not 200k dudes with guns. Modern weapons are of course necessary, but in the end wars are fought and won by soldiers on the ground with rifles in their hands. Modern combined arms operations require the effective coordination of all aspects; air, sea, and land.

I wonder why you'r downvoted, because even if one were to disagree, yours would be a legitimate position civilly expressed.

I happen to agree: you can win battles with air power and armored forces, but you can't keep an area without feet on the ground, hands carrying rifles, and if you can't keep an area, you won't win the war.

Re: Sweden brings back military conscription

#230

Post by tornadoboy55 » Thu, Mar 02, 2017, 6:55 PM UTC

phicoh wrote: post #179

pilsetnieks wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You literally cannot use conscripts for anything of "operators and maintainers of the hi-tech death machines, sigint operatives, radar operators, tank crews, missile forces, officers." First of all, most of them take at least a year to get up to speed, if not more, and they have to maintain their competence. You cannot just release a conscript after his year long stint, and call him up ten years later - the ten year…

This anecdotal, but it was suggested that after the Dutch government suspended conscription, the military lost easy access to lots of highly educated people. There is quite a large group of people with a university degree who can very quickly pick up the theory behind complex systems. The same group group will not sign up voluntarily.

They will sign up voluntarily for a military that is decently funded (having to shout 'pew pew' in training because your training rounds have ran out is ridiculous.. and yes this is real). Plus a wage that would be semi-competitive with the civilian sector.