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The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

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Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#221

Post by pizza »

vegiraghav wrote: post #185
nojvek wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When everyone working 40 hours they are getting paid a lot more. They can afford high rents and mortgages. Even as a software engineer I struggle with rent and don't leave much for savings. When a robot is doing low skilled jobs and education is insanely expensive like it is now, the gap is inevitable. Capital buys AI allowing one person to do the work of many and reap the rewards of it. America is built on this very…

well robots arent just doing low skilled jobs here. They are on the verge of replacing many white collaar jobs

White collar/services jobs are a lot easier for robots to perform than blue collar ones (Moravec's paradox). The untapped potential of being able to sell "the one company that does every service task with a credit card form factor" will probably make it more profitable to attempt to outcompete the low-hanging fruit: higher-cost (so more likely to "go viral") and easier to implement professional jobs. It might just be AI that makes Marx's accelerationism a household term!

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#222

Post by pzone »

sokoloff wrote: post #215
TheSmiddy wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that giving someone just enough money to live will kill their motivation is insane. If that were true why do people still work 40+ hour weeks when they could be earning enough to live on just 15? Most UBI schemes are initially targeting around 1k per month which is nowhere near enough satisfy the vast majority of people.

It's also worth noting that $1K per month for all US citizens would represent materially more than 100% of the current federal tax. US Citizens: Couldn't find a readily available reliable source, so I'll use residents instead. Should be close enough for this math though I'd imagine this would be more likely a citizen program rather than a resident program. US Residents: ~325 million Federal Tax Revenue 2016 - ~3.27 t…

Well, we're imagining a world where robots have made us vastly richer. (Self-driving cars! 100% automated factories!) Stark increases in inequality will also mean that more of the US' total income is given to the highest earners, i.e. those with the highest tax brackets. So we'd collect quite a lot more in taxes even if we left current rates completely unchanged.

If robots don't end up making society incredibly wealthy and more unequal then there's no point in UBI to begin with. So it doesn't make sense to simply look at current figures.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#223

Post by wycx »

maverick_iceman wrote: post #177
enraged_camel wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They weren't. All of the things the OP listed resulted in dramatic (and often very disruptive and painful) changes for the Middle Class. Personally, I hate the whole "people have been saying this forever" type dismissals. They are "mid-brow", as PG would call it: they look intelligent on the surface by giving the illusion of a broader perspective, but don't actually address the point being brought up and don't add an…

I don't see how they don't address the point being brought up. They explicitly point out past scenarios where these sort of predictions were wrong. I think the peddlers of these predictions are disingenuous and intellectually lazy. If they want others to take them seriously they need to explain why their predictions don't fall under the same criticisms.

I like the idea from the CP Grey video on automation: Better technology did not make more better jobs for horses.

Horses are still around, but the population peaked around the turn of the century (19th-20th).

How good does automation have to get before large portions of the population find themselves in the same position as early 20th century horses.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#224

Post by pizza »

ryanmarsh wrote: post #129
fictioncircle wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's funny how boredom, vice, and the indignity of receiving income without continual labor loom in importance if and only if we're talking about technological unemployment. What of people receiving Social Security, pensions, inherited wealth, royalties from patents and copyrights, rents collected on real estate...? It is largely a desire for a control mechanism where the sheep are inherently dependent on the mecha…

LOL. Millions of young men with housing and food and nothing to do. You just described a standing army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sparta#Economy

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#225

Post by sokoloff »

pzone wrote: post #222
sokoloff wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also worth noting that $1K per month for all US citizens would represent materially more than 100% of the current federal tax. US Citizens: Couldn't find a readily available reliable source, so I'll use residents instead. Should be close enough for this math though I'd imagine this would be more likely a citizen program rather than a resident program. US Residents: ~325 million Federal Tax Revenue 2016 - ~3.27 t…

Well, we're imagining a world where robots have made us vastly richer. (Self-driving cars! 100% automated factories!) Stark increases in inequality will also mean that more of the US' total income is given to the highest earners, i.e. those with the highest tax brackets. So we'd collect quite a lot more in taxes even if we left current rates completely unchanged. If robots don't end up making society incredibly wealt…

Agreed that current figures don't tell the whole story, but it's at least as unwise to not consider the current figures to get a sense of order-of-magnitude.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#226

Post by pizza »

lowpro wrote: post #135
wilkommen wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of money someone can make in our economy as an artist isn't a reflection of how much art we "need." Art in particular is not a commodity that society can just have enough of. And in general, the price something fetches in our economy isn't always a reflection of its value to society. See: salaries of social workers, emergency medical technicians, etc.

Everything, including art, follows supply and demand. Value is the point where they meet. Salaries of social works and EMTs are where the supply of those positions meet the need for those positions in any certain area. Art has a defined supply and demand, where the supply is high and demand is low (probably due to the fact you can buy copies of famous masterpieces for very cheap).

While in theory art would be efficiently transferred from the ideal seller (artist) to ideal buyer (rich #1 fan), in practice the idea that information falls in the right hands automagically is kinda laughable

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#227

Post by [deleted] »

philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

[deleted]

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#228

Post by Shaxberd »

philipkglass wrote: post #43

That threat has many thinkers entertaining the idea of a universal basic income, a guaranteed living wage paid by the government to anyone left out of the workforce. But McAfee believes this would only make the problem worse, because it would eliminate the incentive for entrepreneurship and other activity that could create new jobs as the old ones fade away. Others question the psychological effects of the idea. “A u…

I was going to start the next Apple but $10k a year and the prospect of a leisurely life of 40oz's in the park and generic brand mac n' cheese was enough to kill what overwhelming propensity and drive I had.

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#229

Post by redsummer »

AI makes me want to join the Amish. You learn things to give yourself a future and self-fulfilment. But AI will catch up with your skills eventually. You would need to spend all your time learning if you want to keep ahead, and never have time to put to work what you have learned.

Wouldn't you rather have a community and a meaningful life than be a meat-based beta version of a future AI?

Re: The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet – It’s the End of the Middle Class

#230

Post by pizza »

chadcmulligan wrote: post #201
thomyorkie wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

foglets perhaps will do the trick https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog

one step from gray goo then though https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grey_goo

In the end, it's all in the hands of our friend Sol. If only we could reduce every problem down to a problem of harvesting enough photons from the sun, we'd be set for life (and many more). In a way, DNA is the strongest-possible argument for truly universal UBI...
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