Master Plan, Part Deux • Hacker News Board

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#221

Post by jasonkolb » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:07 AM UTC

danhak wrote: post #24

jonny_eh wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber's been likely working on self-driving cars, potentially in partnership with Google. What Tesla has as an advantage though, is an assembly line to produce lots of quality cars. In other words, Tesla will likely be ready for the future of transportation before Uber.

Tesla's other advantage is a global fleet that is actively logging millions of real-world miles a day. I don't think that can be understated at this stage.

Google has Waze data. Which I would think serves as a GREAT set of labels for the data that the self driving cars collect.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#222

Post by mahyarm » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:07 AM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #202

JoshTriplett wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities already tend to have limited parking. We might see more parking structures located in cheap out-of-the-way locations rather than near places people want to go. And street parking could go away in favor of consolidated parking structures, freeing up road space for both car traffic (with extra lanes) and foot traffic (widen sidewalks). But I think it'll have an even larger effect on suburban areas. Shopping cent…

Let me spell out the argument more: Instead of 100 people owning 100 cars they drive 5% of the time, they could own 10 summonable cars that drive them around 50% of the time. The first scenario requires 95 parking spots. The second only 5. There is still as much traffic on the roads, and as much transport work being done, but most of the space now needed for parking can be put to other use.

No because you have to account for peak usage and have the capacity for it. There will be car savings, but the math wont be as simple as you say it is.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#223

Post by mark-r » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:10 AM UTC

CaptSpify wrote: post #79

Animats wrote: post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

I've only mildly followed him, but I remember hearing he is extremely aggressive with his timelines. Is he normally so far off on his estimates?

A certain amount of optimism is a necessary prerequisite of being an entrepreneur. Nobody would ever do it if they knew from the start how hard it would be.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#224

Post by pjscott » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:13 AM UTC

suprgeek wrote: post #199

Obscured under " Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning " is the cold hard truth that that learning will be paid for in lives - mostly of Tesla drivers possibly of others. The rates of accidents in manual vs current version of autopilot may work out to be favorable - (and that is still under debate) - but there certainly will be people who will die (and have died) d…

Refusal to do such cold calculation, though it may feel nice, is also paid for in lives. The prices are usually worse, too.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#225

Post by coredog64 » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:13 AM UTC

Vik1ng wrote: post #144

sjtgraham wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Semis spend a large part of their time driving at highway speeds where air resistance is at a maximum. Why would a self-driving cargo vehicle drive at highway speeds? A human truck driver can only drive 11 hours/day, an autonomous vehicle can be on the move 24/7 and so could travel at slower, more efficient speeds while completing trips on similar time scales. > To achieve useful performance an electric semi will n…

A semi travelling a very slow speeds would need his own lane or it would significantly increase the risk of accidents (unless every car on the road is autonomous). Solar on the roof is most likely rather insignificant and will also just add weight.

Use solar on the roof for reefer trailers (similar to 3rd Gen Prius option)?

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#226

Post by lowglow » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:13 AM UTC

Last year I pitched Playa (http://getplaya.com/) at Launch conference and was laughed off stage by Jason Calacanis. My example use of the technology was that your autonomous vehicle would be able to contract itself out as an 'uber', earning you money while you slept. Today Tesla announced that this is part of its plans for the future and everyone is going wild.

We're now going a step further and building a next-gen interface for that autonomous future. ‪#‎Asteria‬.

http://getasteria.com/

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#227

Post by mitul_45 » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:14 AM UTC

Tesla should buy Uber to manager all booking, locating taxis and other stuff. Then it would be badass combination!

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#228

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:15 AM UTC

gozur88 wrote: post #218

suprgeek wrote: post #199

Obscured under " Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning " is the cold hard truth that that learning will be paid for in lives - mostly of Tesla drivers possibly of others. The rates of accidents in manual vs current version of autopilot may work out to be favorable - (and that is still under debate) - but there certainly will be people who will die (and have died) d…

While it's true people are going to die on autopilot, what you need to compare it with is the number of people who would otherwise have caused collisions the autopilot avoided. Statistically if it isn't already safer than the average driver it's very close. There are 1.5 million heart attacks and strokes in the US every year. Self driving cars might end up being safer even if we were all perfect drivers.

[deleted]

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#229

Post by intrasight » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:17 AM UTC

8611m wrote: post #172

rjdagost wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Say what you will about their "antiquated" business practices, but Ford consistently does one thing that Tesla never does: it turns a profit

If this was the only thing that mattered for businesses, we wouldn't have Amazon as Walmart has consistently produced more net profit over Amazon since the last 22 years. 1 1. http://revenuesandprofits.com/amazon-vs-walmart-revenues-and...

As Amazon looses money on every sale, and makes it up with funding from new shareholders, I'm going to call it a Ponzi scheme and not a business.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#230

Post by gkya » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 4:18 AM UTC

thucydides wrote: post #23

> "When used correctly, [partially autonomous driving] is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves" If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. A shift to technologies safer than human-driven ca…

I don't understand, why would you need self driving cars if you don't want to drive? Public transport is here, is cheaper and safer. Also it allows to multitask.