Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities • Hacker News Board

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#221

Post by jperras » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 5:53 PM UTC

illumin8 wrote: post #196

pkaler wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm standing at my desk in my apartment that I pay $1589/month for. An equivalent apartment in SF or NYC would be $3500 or higher. The problems are two-fold. 1) Vancouver hasn't created a single-family detached home lot since the 1970s. There is an ocean to the west, the US border to the south, Burrard Inlet and mountains to the north. There just isn't any land. The only way to expand is east into the Fraser Valley.…

If property values were tied directly to incomes, as they are in any normal market, and what you are saying is true about salaries being low, the Vancouver market would not be as hot as it is right now. The market is being artificially inflated by foreign buyers. Don't forget that Vancouver is a very attractive destination for wealthy Chinese multi-nationals. This is the same phenomenon that has wealthy Chinese buyin…

> The market is being artificially inflated by foreign buyers.

Citation + data needed?

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#222

Post by Animats » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:00 PM UTC

mkaziz wrote: post #211

dghughes wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This seems to be a direct result of capital flight from China. It's even happening to tiny PEI in the east we have seen a massive surge of Chinese people (to clarify yes from China) investing in and living in the province. Five years ago you could walk down the street and it was typical small town Canada last summer I went to a Starbucks and every single person was Chinese. There are now at least two if not three B…

PEI of Anne of Green Gables fame? Man, now I wish I had visited it earlier ... it's been a life dream of mine to go see it!

Green Gables is available in QuickTime VR.

[1] https://www.tourismpei.com/green-gables-house

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#223

Post by tomjen3 » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:02 PM UTC

imrehg wrote: post #26

lewisl9029 wrote: post #12

As someone who's lived in Vancouver for more than 10 years, then went to Waterloo for school (and lived in Toronto for most of my co-ops/internships), I think we Canadians should be more worried about highly educated millennials fleeing Canada entirely. Everybody I know from school who were offered the option to work in the US have picked up their Canadian degrees and left. To the Canadian tech industry: How are you…

I think that's an issue everywhere in the world. I'm living in Taiwan (not from here originally), and the tech scene is really being hollowed out for years if not decades. The really best, brightest, and most motivated people are already working abroad. "Humiliating" is a strong word, but the more I think about it, the more apt it feels, there should be a lot more reward for the good techies here (there are some left…

Why should there be a reward for staying? The market is screaming "leave" and you don't rich by laughing at what the market says.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#224

Post by rozap » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:04 PM UTC

tdicola wrote: post #2

Get ready Seattleites, we're next. The housing market is already going a bit bonkers with no sign of slowing down.

It's getting bad in Seattle, but there are a couple things Seattle has going for it that Vancouver doesn't. It actually has industry, and more people have jobs that pay living wages. The $15 minimum wage will go a long way for the bottom income bracket.

I grew up in Seattle, moved to Vancouver for school and worked there (software) for a year, and then came back to Seattle because Vancouver just wasn't going to be sustainable for me and my fiance. I'm going to throw numbers around for concrete-ness; I don't mean to offend anyone.

We were renting a 3 bed, 1 bath home with 2 roommates in Vancouver that had last sold in 2011 for $1.6 million that was falling apart. I was working at a very well funded startup (with ~120 people) making $60k CAD. After about 8 months I looked for other jobs (mostly because I just didn't like the work, but the money situation didn't help) in Vancouver, and it was really slim pickings. I interviewed at a few places and really wasn't a fan of what I saw, and was feeling bad about the situation. Then I sent an email to a company (with ~200 people) down in Seattle, and after a really reasonable interview process had an offer for more than twice (2.3x) what I was making in Canada (adjusted for exchange rate i was making 42k USD in Vancouver). My fiance and I talked a lot about it and agreed that the next year was going to be super shitty being apart, because she has a year left of school, but it was going to be a better long term bet. I moved down and it was indeed super shitty, but we're in a better place now going forward. Now we're actually looking at buying a place (because landlords are awful) and it's totally within our budget, when it never would have been possible in Vancouver. She's moving down in less than two months and there are more job prospects for her in Seattle, so the shittiness is almost over, and the future is looking great.

I know it's anecdotal evidence, but the economic differences between Seattle and Vancouver are worlds apart. When a financially stable, educated, white dude like me is having a hard time keeping up in Vancouver, you know it's bad. I can't imagine what it's like for everyone else. It makes sense that people that can leave are leaving, but being able to pick up and leave is a privilege. Vancouver is going to have some very serious problems in 5 or 10 years.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#225

Post by stormqloud » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:08 PM UTC

branchless wrote: post #70

jbarham wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Montreal? Calgary? Edmonton? Halifax? St. John's? Winter.

Montreal is great. I recommend it. Yeah it's a bit cold but it's dry so not damp cold. Would you rather be a bit cold or working like a dog for some US company where your healthcare could vanish overnight because your boss was in a bad mood?

Montreal is great in some ways. In other ways you run into the regular overt hatred of non francophones.

http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news-community/2016/03/16/elderly-p...

""My mom was laying in her bed, she turned over and I noticed she was crying," says Martin. "That's when she told me a nurse had just yelled at her for speaking in English.""

Thats the kind of mean spirited people that work in the "civil service".

Anyone who denies it, hasn't lived in Montreal long enough and needs to get out to Sherbrooke or Drummonville a little more often to see that natives in their full hatred.

Fight Anglophobia.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#226

Post by ygmelnikova » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:08 PM UTC

I've lived in Vancouver for over 50 years, and have been in tech here since the early 80s. The demand to live 'in the city' is what's driving up prices. We operate out of Maple Ridge, about 50 minutes by train to downtown Vancouver. Purchased a house last year with an acre of riverfront property for $337,00 USD. If you're willing to take an hour and 10 minute train, you can live in Mission where we recently purchased 2 acres of commercial/residential property with a 1600 sq foot commercial building for under $215,000 USD. You could buy a small detached house there for under $180,000 usd

90% of our work is performed remotely for US companies paying in US dollars. We typically charge $90/hr USD and have no problem finding projects.

We could live in the city, but why?

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#227

Post by jb613 » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:09 PM UTC

pkaler wrote: post #194

illumin8 wrote: post #180

This seems to be a direct result of capital flight from China. Wealthy chinese who are able to get their money out (through corruption, money laundering, or otherwise) are looking for somewhere safe to park their money for the inevitable decline in value of the yuan. China can only artificially peg their money to the dollar for so long, until they run out of dollars, and they are drawing down their reserves at a reco…

I'm standing at my desk in my apartment that I pay $1589/month for. An equivalent apartment in SF or NYC would be $3500 or higher. The problems are two-fold. 1) Vancouver hasn't created a single-family detached home lot since the 1970s. There is an ocean to the west, the US border to the south, Burrard Inlet and mountains to the north. There just isn't any land. The only way to expand is east into the Fraser Valley.…

> "A tech company that can't afford to pay an employee to rent a $1589/month apartment is not a tech company."

Tech companies don't have to be in Vancouver. The fundamental component that a tech company requires is talent. There's relatively little distinguishing talent in Vancouver that can't be found in several other comparable jurisdictions within Canada. A tech company that pays higher wages simply because the employee lives in a high-cost jurisdiction is a tech company that is less competitive.

That's the from the company view, now to address to your personal view:

> "I'm standing at my desk in my apartment that I pay $1589/month for."

and:

> "The single-family detached home is dead. Live in a condo. Everyone gets a view. Everyone gets sunshine. Everyone gets services. Everyone gets a park a block away. "

Yikes! That rent adds up to $381,000 over 20 years. You can easily find single-family detached homes for that price in places like Waterloo, Ottawa, or Montreal suburbs and in 20 years have it paid off and own an asset while Vancouver renter will have no asset and more rent to pay. Those 3 locations have comparable tech job prospects as Vancouver with a whole lot more sunshine in the winter.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#228

Post by ido » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:11 PM UTC

J-dawg wrote: post #207

JPKab wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a suspicion how this works: As an American, when I was early in my career, and had a baby and wife to support, being underpaid was super painful. Medical care, for instance, was expensive. Being able to be easily and quickly fired without a typical European justification process is another factor. You can find yourself unemployed at any time, with any justification. It all lit a fire under me to demand better…

I think you're overestimating European social support systems a bit. Here in the UK, you can be fired quite easily until you've been in a job for 2 years. After that, you can still be made redundant. IBM are currently laying off a lot of people and only paying them the legal minimum settlement (1 week's pay for every year worked). Our unemployment benefits are very low. Most professional people wouldn't even bother c…

Continental Europe (Germany, Austria, the Nordic countries, etc) is a lot more socialist than the UK.

The UK seems to be somewhere in between the US and continental Europe.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#229

Post by sospep » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:11 PM UTC

emodendroket wrote: post #203

illumin8 wrote: post #180

This seems to be a direct result of capital flight from China. Wealthy chinese who are able to get their money out (through corruption, money laundering, or otherwise) are looking for somewhere safe to park their money for the inevitable decline in value of the yuan. China can only artificially peg their money to the dollar for so long, until they run out of dollars, and they are drawing down their reserves at a reco…

I mean, yes, but who says cities have to allow Chinese investment to dominate the market rather than the people who live in these cities? Maybe that is the best political choice, but it is a political choice and we all pretend it's a neutral and inexorable natural law.

> who says cities have to allow Chinese investment to dominate the market rather than the people who live in these cities?

Vancouver's dirty little secret is that the real estate market IS the economy.

If restrictions were placed on foreign investment and this RE bubble burst, the city/region would be in for a world of hurt.

If you know what $30 oil is doing to our neighboring provinces, you would get an idea of what the future holds for Vancouver without it's "foreign investment" fix.

Re: Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

#230

Post by nacho2sweet » Wed, Mar 16, 2016, 6:14 PM UTC

Real-estate has been fucked up here since 2000, and no one has ever done anything about it. Our condo market was a money market for years. People would pay other people to camp out for pre-sales a week in advance in tents and a new development would be sold out opening day. It would be flipped 5 times before it was even built.

The "affordable housing" initiatives here mostly seem to be for homeless people or those on fixed incomes. There is a big resentment from middle class or the "working poor" here now. But young people don't vote or they vote on social issues that seem nice when they are 20 but not on something that is going to effect them when they are 28-40. People who own houses love it but know it is fucked up. My mom is an example basically, and just banked her retirement selling her downtown condo. Lots of you are talking about tech wages because that effects you, but I have lots of friends that grew up that are in the 40k-50k range that would at least like a shitty condo in east van. I wish we could go back to 10 years ago about DINKWAD jokes, but the Double Income No Kids With a Dogs can't even afford detached houses here anymore. It's $2-million for a tear down crack shack. It is fucking crazy. $2-million is a lot of money. $2-million used to be a beautiful water view mansion, and not that long ago.

Everyone should read this article as well: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/the-real-...

This is just one shady fucked up thing they know about. There is so much more to it. I really wish the Frontline about shady money laundering didn't get canned. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/06/why-did-fro...

At the same time we keep saying the "Chinese money laundering!" yea it is illegal to them. But we also don't live under laws that only allow us to move $50k a year out of the country. We have to imagine living under that ourselves I guess.