as a two-sided marketplace, etsy got a wrong balance between vendors and buyers... Last time I did read they speaking about making a lot of money offering vendors' services... They abandoned the crowdsource, the crowd abandoned them..
Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
221–230 of 276 posts
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
The way I read his comment was a difference between perceived value and actual value. Market share is equivalent to perceived value, not actual value. So the comment was remarking that the drop in share price could be the result of inflated expectations becoming more realistic rather than a loss of actual value of the company. The biggest difference between perceived and actual value that I'm aware of is the tulip ma…
What are you talking about? The value to the people is what they will pay for it. If nobody is buying it at a certain price, then there is nobody that feels it has value at or above that price. There is no 'real value' of something vs its market value.
I think the distinction being made is the value of the stock vs the value of the company, which is not always perfectly in sync. That's why, at any given time, a stock can be undervalued or overvalued. For example, I think you'd be hard pressed to state that the value of a stock right before a company announces unexpected losses is representative of the actual value of the company. The perceived value, prior to the announcement, is too high.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#223"over-hyped gimmicky thing trendy with hipsters out-of-touch with reality starts to fail over short period of time" not surprised one bit. i echo the sentiment of other commenters who give other examples. this is only surprising if you are also out of touch with reality
Who said anybody was surprised?
Presumably anyone who invested in etsy 9 months ago was surprised.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their lock-in is their network effects. Airbnb has a huge selection of locations in many major cities around the world. Uber has an incredible number of drivers and riders on the system globally at all times of the day. Competitors will have a very hard time replicating that.
airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.
VRBO and HomeAway tend to be better for higher-end properties. People that spend a lot of money want to talk to the owners prior to booking and VRBO/HomeAway facilitates that. People that own high end properties want to talk to the renters too. They also have custom rental agreements baked in to the booking process. I rent a 6BR and everyone wants to get a better deal. That's part of the dance. I tend to favor last minute / higher yield since I have a solid product and an automated home.
AirBnB prevents pre-booking contact because their model is different. They make money on bookings, mostly from the consumer. For HomeAway I pay them ~$1600/yr and get featured placement and no booking fees. That is actually a small marketing expense for my property so the consumer can actually pay quite a bit less by booking my property on VRBO instead of AirBnB which charges the consumer 6-12%.
AirBnB has the problem of being seen as the platform for renting shared space. I think they will do a good job branding as a place for entire home rentals but that may take some time with the older crowd. They have a good renter review system which doesn't exist on VRBO. They are prioritizing hosts that respond quickly because they know that in order to take real share from hotels/resorts and HomeAway/VRBO they will need to provide a better booking experience and also excel at last minute bookings. HA/VRBO doesn't have a lot of checks in place to ensure the consumer receives adequate service and this is mostly due to their chosen business model.
I don't know how this will shake out in full but as an owner, you should be on both. Expedia bought HomeAway so I think that is huge for them because they could launch a really compelling reward platform and provide owners more distribution. I would bet AirBnB would get scooped up by someone as well or finance a strategic acquisition of their own.
Once business travel falls to AirBnb/HA/VRBO due to incentivized rewards programs, hotels will be extremely scared, esp since most are franchises who are losing power. This hasn't happened yet. They're telling the story that AirBnB/VRBO has simply provided more room-nights that wouldn't have happened without them but I don't buy it.
Regardless, there is plenty of space for two heavyweights and I'm bullish on both.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#225I'm not surprised at all. Etsy used to be user based and hand made. Now it's just another market place. They still act like they try to enforce "non-mass-produced" but there are countless examples of the opposite being true. Places where people have directly reported instances of this and the problem is still present. I think the problem is that they stopped caring about their user base and, therefore, became less ub…
Lost 76% of its value... And still valued at nearly a billion dollars.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just saying, Box's main target is enterprise market and they definitely charge a hefty amount from their customers. They have beat analyst expectations for both revenue growth and profit (well, less loss) for every quarter since IPO, it's just a tough market.
I still can't fathom how monetizing what are basically just shared network drives, a feature already built into windows, is a successful venture. Hire an IT guy and have him setup network shares, done. But obviously there seems to be some need I'm overlooking, considering the revenue these companies are making.
User friendly packaging sometimes makes all the difference. Apple's empire is built on user friendly packaging.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#227As they always say, this time is different. My opinion is that the tech sector has greatly expanded since 2000, not just in amount of investment available, but also types of business tech companies are actually in. So maybe there is a web/ad bubble and it might pop, but how much that affects individual company is more nuanced. Unsophisticated investors might still lump Google/Twitter/Tesla/AMD into the same "tech sec…
i have been thinking about this a lot. Peter Theil talks a lot about paypal when they were burning cash, but they had finally started to get the business fundamentals together. He calculated, i am approximating but it was close to, 80% of the companies worth came after 20 years.
My thinking is that public markets are shitty, so almost all of the value capture takes place way before a company is worth it, it stays private a long time, goes public, then slowly grows for 5 years fails to adapt and dies. Look at google. They know search is about to change majorly, they have already spun into a meta-architecture. Doing things quickly, capturing that value, and then adapting is the only way to survive. If you do adapt enough to survive, you are a conpletely different conpany than when you started. If you dont, all the value has been captured by provate markets, the company gets sluggish, and isnt that profitable for "retail investors".
Amazon sort of the one exception. They saw the world how it is now over 10+ years ago, and are still competing and incrsting in growth because thats how you win.
You have to own all the infrastructure, so you dont have to work as hard.
Either way, uber is more like ebay than like lyft. Sectors have subsectors because everything is close to winner take all.
You analyze by looking at what the smart people are doung.
Stripe = infrastructure Aws = end to end automated everything Google is organizing as a think tank/incubator
Ycombinator is funding smart crazy people who move fast.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
My thoughts exactly! Etsy seems like a perfect business for someone like eBay to snap up. Though I could see Amazon having an interest, too.
I understand the product-fit, but what incremental value does Etsy bring to either of those companies?
Neither of them have marketplaces for custom made goods (for the most part at least compared to etsy) and both are in competition with each other to expand their marketplaces to as far as they can go.
Seems like it would be a good fit to me. I'm not sure how it ultimately gets integrated it (maybe it doesn't?).
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
My thoughts exactly! Etsy seems like a perfect business for someone like eBay to snap up. Though I could see Amazon having an interest, too.
I understand the product-fit, but what incremental value does Etsy bring to either of those companies?
Brand, and cultural relevance?
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#230The lockup agreement expired. Looks like employees and executives are selling up big time. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/etsy-shares-fall-after-expi...
That's crazy. The employees owners just gutted the value of their own company.
It could well be that the employees did that after management made decisions that they feel gutted the value of the company anyway.