Live data from Hacker News

Thoughts on Bitcoin

blog.samaltman.com

211–213 of 213 posts

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#211
post #204
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is generally nothing anchoring the value of any asset trading above the costs of the inputs required to make it. For example, any real estate with a premium for its "better location," suits by Armani, sunglasses by Gucci carries a similar premium. This applies to gold as well--a huge part of the value is the expectation that others will continue to like shiny things. Nothing anchors their price, or premium, oth…

Unfortunately, it won't. Money supply is a function of many things that an authority needs to control as an adjustment lever for the economy. A currency with a scheduled-deflation is not the solution. There are no problems with our currencies today. This is a solution to a non-existent problem. We have problems in the finance world that Bitcoin does not solve. For example, regulating how money supply can adjusted, or…

I guess the reason I don't give this argument any weight is that it is a theoretical argument about money supply and governance when the decisions to use this currency or not are made by average joes who decide whether it is in their self interest. I understand your argument as essentially saying that this currency will cause a tragedy-of-the-commons problem.

The thing is, I think that acknowledges that its popularity is inevitable--tragedy of the commons can only arise when people see something in their interest that is detrimental to society. But as an average joe, given a variety of assets, some deflationary, some not, storing my wealth in the deflationary one is in my interest.

The government never has to use it. I can always convert a small portion of my increasing-value bitcoin holdings into inflationary fiat at the last minute to pay the bill.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#212
Just like investments in Bitcoin startups are binary, so are investments in Bitcoin itself. Put some USD into it and don't worry too much about it. People waste millions on lottery tickets with much smaller chances of success, so, I'm tired of all these negative articles, just because Bitcoin dropped 20-30% and then almost fully recovered in a day. Sell off if you wish - there are enough people to buy your Bitcoins cheap. And by the way, the tulip craze is an obvious myth.

Re: Thoughts on Bitcoin

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They tried it in Japan, it didn't work. There's a big difference between "trying to make it happen" and "happened despite of them trying to not happen". Deflation/Inflation works fine when governments aren't involved. Point being that if market can predict the inflation and deflation then every contract will account for that. No business will fail because of deflation, because they will purposefully account for the…

Deflation doesn't work period: in the face of falling prices, people will save rather than spend, leading to a vicious cycle. No serious economist would claim otherwise. Deflation wasn't created by the Japanese government; they just didn't do enough to fight it, thinking austerity with its personal sacrifice was the right way to a healthy economy. They were wrong in a big way. Economies must be managed. Arguing wheth…

Austerity? Japan has been running huge deficits.

Austerity is where you leave within your means. When you do it by choice, you're in control. When you are forced to do it because you've been borrowing and spending everything as soon as you get it, it can be a disaster.

Its not frugality that's bad. Reckless behavior that destroys investment in future productivity - that's what's bad.

To verify this, save as much as you can for a decade. Note that you have money to buy what bankrupt individuals must sell at a loss. You are better off BECAUSE of your austerity.

There is no reason to believe that economics works ass backwards for a group than it does for the individuals in the group.

Economics is fractal. Prosperous individuals make a prosperous country and a more prosperous world. Pursuing poverty never will.

Post reply on HN