> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job,
But she won't, will she? Her employer will do the incorporating. With very different objectives.
What will our economic future look like?
211–220 of 394 posts
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
In a market with perfect competition, perhaps. Healthcare is far closer to a monopoly. Since people can't decide not to be sick, it means you can pocket the cost-saving.
>it means you can pocket the cost-saving Right up until a competing hospital that charges substantially less for "close enough it doesn't matter" quality of service opens up in the same area? Or right up until an equivalent specialist sets up shop in the strip mall across the street from you, brings the GP in house and can see people in one visit. Oh, those things don't happen you say? From do-gooders regulating righ…
healthcare is one of the most highly regulated and state-controlled industries on the planet. surely that has nothing to do with it though. must be those damn capitalists!
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#213If it's anything like that web page, I'd say the future looks... slow.
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#214I like how the least optimistic scenario is simply LLMs not making a difference, instead of the very real possibility of them damaging education, destroying people’s attention spans and their ability to learn, eroding trust within societies, increasing the wealth inequality and leading to class wars. I believe the net effect of LLMs is, at this point, firmly negative, and it’s going to take years until they start mak…
Altman, Amodei, Pinchai etc can get together and just put a self imposed ban on themselves and ask the us government to sanction any entity/state attempting to use/release a Recursive Self improving model until the risks are well understood. This does not mean they can't keep developing it. But it would mean they do not release them to the general public or the public domain. The US government can continue to use and…
Would also mean their labs most be fully airgapped and made safe from all known covert channels, no matter how ridiculously theoretical. In fact, their meat proxies, who may be brainwashed into acting on the AI's behalf, must also be kept in extreme isolation. And to make sure that nobody will get close we will need to figure out a way to warn people. Probably start out with a series of signs...
This place is a message... and part of a system of messages... pay attention to it!
This is not a place of honor... no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here... nothing valued is here.
What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us. This mesage is a warning about danger.
The danger is in a particular location... it increases toward a center...
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#215> The result: the nurse’s job changes > As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. Except what actually happens is that the patient contact time stays the same, but then the added productivity is used to justify fewer on-staff nurses.
Self-checkout will free up cashiers to focus on high-quality customer service!
Yes, I too have noticed an increased high quality customer service.
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#216> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…
I know this is just an example, but I'm going to say this every time the subject comes up: since human lives are the cost of making the wrong decisions, AI can't be allowed to be a decision maker of any kind in healthcare. If my blood pressure crashes because my nurse is caring for 15 patients at once and didn't notice that the AI decided to pause my norepinephrine, I won't consider "the AI did it" to be any acceptab…
> human lives are the cost of making the wrong decisions ...
True.
> ... AI can't be allowed to be a decision maker
Non sequitur.
Part 2 only follows from the Part 1 if you can demonstrate that AI makes more errors, or more severe errors, than humans in the identical situation.
And for those situations, I agree with you.
But there are already many situations where the AI is making fewer errors than humans, and for those situations, it would be unethical to exclude AI (see Part 1).
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
Being able to fly at all is a much better passenger experience than not having that choice in the first place. And I'll bet that flying first class today is far better than 50 years ago.
>And I'll bet that flying first class today is far better than 50 years ago. I wasn't flying first class 50 years ago, but everything I can see now leads me to believe that this isn't even slightly true. There might be a high def flatscreen in front of me in first class today, but I'm not getting more attention than someone would've gotten back then, I'm not in a less crowded airport while I'm boarding, and the secur…
Economy are seats getting smaller, but also modern airplanes are much fuel efficient.
"Between 1950 and 2018, efficiency per passenger grew from 0.4 to 8.2 RPK per kg of CO2"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_aircraft
https://www.explore.com/1762212/reason-why-plane-experience-...
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#218> As the nurse incorporates AI into her job, the nurse is able to oversee and accomplish more. She can spend more time talking with patients and helping them understand diagnoses. Productivity increases. This feels economically naïve.. If AI lets one nurse do the work that previously required two, the default pressure in a cost-driven system is not "great, now nurses can spend twice as long with patients" It is "grea…
Exactly. If their productivity fantasies are real, the precarious (and already very anti-worker) balance between capital and labor immediately disintegrates. Serious solutions to this would look like nationalizing tech companies, mandating shorter work weeks, seizing the assets of the oligarchs and redistributing them. Not... letting the invisible hand of the market sort it all out.
youre comment is getting to the real economic future: nursing unions will not sit back and let this happen. if the "productivity fantasies" (well said) are real this will get ugly. the competent nurses where i live are in strong unions
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know this is just an example, but I'm going to say this every time the subject comes up: since human lives are the cost of making the wrong decisions, AI can't be allowed to be a decision maker of any kind in healthcare. If my blood pressure crashes because my nurse is caring for 15 patients at once and didn't notice that the AI decided to pause my norepinephrine, I won't consider "the AI did it" to be any acceptab…
> human lives are the cost of making the wrong decisions ... True. > ... AI can't be allowed to be a decision maker Non sequitur. Part 2 only follows from the Part 1 if you can demonstrate that AI makes more errors, or more severe errors, than humans in the identical situation. And for those situations, I agree with you. But there are already many situations where the AI is making fewer errors than humans, and for th…
Since AI can't be held liable for mistakes, it's immaterial whether the AI makes fewer mistakes than humans.
Re: What will our economic future look like?
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
I once saw a receipt for a cross-country train ride in the late 1950s and was shocked at the price. It was significantly slower and more expensive than a similar plane ticket today.
That tends to be true now as well for a variety of reasons. I'd be more interested in the cost then between both modes of travel.
Yes, in the USA Amtrak tends to be quite a bit more expensive than the equivalent trip by air. And far slower. Maybe excluding some of the east coast commuter routes.