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US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

bbc.com

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Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#211

Post by swat535 »

mostafah wrote: post #89

I’m an Iranian in my 40s, and the regime and Western countries have been negotiating for most of my life. I remember being in high school when the first nuclear talks began, and ever since, it has been a never-ending series of talks, understandings, and plans without any real conclusion. I remember there were cases when they talked for weeks, and their main achievement was agreement on the time and place of the next…

Iranian here as well. This war was a complete disaster, US bombed our kids, our homes and killed more than 3000 people.

I’ll be the first one in line to spit on IRGC. I had my cousin sent to Evin for six months after the Mahsa uprising. She was tortured and will never live a normal life again. But I’m glad IRGC defended the land and didn’t let US and Israel turn it into another Syria.

I think that internal Iranian issues should only be dealt with from within. I’m not going to celebrate the West attempting to interfere in our affairs.

Right now half the country supports the IRGC and this war increased the number of hardliners in the “Majles”. Just look at the new IRGC commanders in charge.

If the West genuinely was interested in helping the Iranian people, they would start by taking away the sanctions that our suffocating our people.

In short, I agree with your central argument, which ironically coincides with the regime’s talking points: “dialogue with the West is useless.”

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#212

Post by bulbar »

sanid wrote: post #99
petilon wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? Trump Claims Strait Will be ‘Permanently Toll Free’ Under Agreement With Iran (NYT headline).

Iranians have said they cannot charge a "toll" according to international law, but they can charge a "fee". Charging a fee for maintanance, environment or security is fine, so it will be just a different branding to the "toll". Personally I think they should charge an environmental fee with the amount of traffic going through there. https://www.dawn.com/news/2007544/cannot-impose-tolls-on-str...

They will never charge such a fee, they will however charge a fee and name it "environmental fee".

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#213

Post by defrost »

gyanchawdhary wrote: post #87
woodruffw wrote: post #7

Are the terms of the deal public yet? If they're essentially a return to the status quo ante bellum, that would be a pretty embarrassing conclusion for the US (and would presumably further harden any belief within Iran that the only permanent regime-preserving solution involves accelerating the process of obtaining nuclear weapons).

[flagged]

The US, under Trump, has moved from a state in which

  * regular checks kept HEU processing in Iran under agreed limits, 
  * tunnels were traversed and inertially mapped,
  * leaders were known, and communicated with
to a state in which

  * tunnels have been expanded, unmapped
  * locations of and numbers of HEU caches are no longer known,
  * "leadership" has devolved into a mosaic of cells such that, at best, one or two people know where all HEU caches are, more probably no single person knows where the caches are.
In this later, current state it's far more probable that one or more rogue cells may take their HEU caches and attempt to maximise damage to the US and or Israel.

The DoD under Trump has literally made a poor situation far far worse and greatly increased the likelihood of rogue nuclear weapons.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#214

Post by tristanj »

kelnos wrote: post #199
tristanj wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Name the civilian use for Iran's 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium. There isn't one. No power reactor uses it (those run on 3-5%), no research reactor needs it (~20% max), and it sits 98-99% of the way enriched weapons-grade. Iran has enough fissile material for multiple bombs with under two weeks of further enrichment. There is no civilian use for this material. Iran enriched this material, under a mountain, in violati…

Did that 2025 assessment conclude that Iran was building toward a nuclear weapon, or didn't it?

The 2025 unclassified report does not assess that, but the 2024 one did. Money quote:

Iran has greatly expanded its nuclear program, reduced IAEA monitoring, and undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.

Also, that 2025 unclassified report was released before the June 2025 enrichment numbers I shared; these numbers would have influenced the report, and you dodged the question:

What's your justification for Iran producing 440kg of highly enriched 60% material, in secret deep under a mountain in violation of IAEA agreements, if not for a nuclear weapons program?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#215

Post by mostafah »

swat535 wrote: post #211
mostafah wrote: post #89

I’m an Iranian in my 40s, and the regime and Western countries have been negotiating for most of my life. I remember being in high school when the first nuclear talks began, and ever since, it has been a never-ending series of talks, understandings, and plans without any real conclusion. I remember there were cases when they talked for weeks, and their main achievement was agreement on the time and place of the next…

Iranian here as well. This war was a complete disaster, US bombed our kids, our homes and killed more than 3000 people. I’ll be the first one in line to spit on IRGC. I had my cousin sent to Evin for six months after the Mahsa uprising. She was tortured and will never live a normal life again. But I’m glad IRGC defended the land and didn’t let US and Israel turn it into another Syria. I think that internal Iranian is…

> Right now half the country supports the IRGC

Where the hell did you get that number from?

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#216

Post by orwin »

firesteelrain wrote: post #43

I don’t know how this is worse for the US or the World. Iran’s leadership and military was decapitated. It’s in the best interest of US, Europe and Israel and the Middle East. The nuclear program had a huge setback. What are the counter arguments to these facts if we really end up in peace with Iran along with the bad actors gone too?

The president/head of the civilian government in Iran was ousted, probably by the IRGC. The IRGC took control of the mullahs a week after the war started. They already had power over them, but the fact us that without the war, the supreme guide election would have been a difficult power struggle with political concessions. It wasn't thanks to Trump, reinforcing the IRGC control of Iran's religious life.

The Iranian regime will be more repressive and more extreme.

The only good point about that is that it makes the regime weaker to domestic insurrections.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#217

Post by riazrizvi »

Gud wrote: post #209
riazrizvi wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After 400 years of Ottoman rule, we the Brits took that region because we won WWI. We gave some to different Arab groups, and some to the Israelis. The muslim religious head of Jerusalem wrote fan mail to Hitler advocating for the Final Solution. The hostility toward Jews had been whipped up for years and the general unwillingness of the neighboring regions to agree to the lines that the UK delegated to the UN is why…

Why the fuck does the colonial power dictate who “gets” land? The land was stolen from the local farmers and fishermen and given to Europeans.

For the same reason all land ownership across the world and across the ages and across all animal species has been determined.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#218

Post by croisillon »

drnick1 wrote: post #185
defrost wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chronologically wrong. During the time of JCPOA (original, between Iran and the P5+1) inspectors had access to where they wanted to go (sometimes with friction, sure) and were able to place tamper resistant / tamper revealing instrumentation, air filters, and spectrometers - effectively creating a data record that could place a stochastic cap on {enrichment level, volume}. After Trump ripped up that agreement during…

The JCPOA was a huge mistake. Even assuming that it truthfully capped enrichment and prevented the development of an atomic bomb, at the same time it enriched the nation and therefore allowed Iran to finance terrorism and ballistic missiles.

and now Iran is getting fresh €250 banknotes, impressive gambit sir

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#219

Post by Gud »

riazrizvi wrote: post #217
Gud wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why the fuck does the colonial power dictate who “gets” land? The land was stolen from the local farmers and fishermen and given to Europeans.

For the same reason all land ownership across the world and across the ages and across all animal species has been determined.

So you believe might makes right?

I don’t.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#220

Post by benterix »

epolanski wrote: post #27
woodruffw wrote: post #7

Are the terms of the deal public yet? If they're essentially a return to the status quo ante bellum, that would be a pretty embarrassing conclusion for the US (and would presumably further harden any belief within Iran that the only permanent regime-preserving solution involves accelerating the process of obtaining nuclear weapons).

The conclusion has long been embarassing unless we live under a rock. The US president has been played like a fool by the Israelis and Iran has inflicted a humiliating defeat to the US and its allies by leveraging cheap asymmetric warfare.

> the US and its allies

Which allies?

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