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Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

normaltech.ai

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Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#211

Post by tracerbulletx »

Brendinooo wrote: post #163
JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

>e.g. front-end web development It's kind of funny that you say this, because I am a frontend developer and I tend to see the state of the art as being very good at doing the boring behind-the-scenes plumbing that I don't care about, and not great at doing the kind of bespoke design work that my day job's clients want. I'm not saying that either of us are definitively right or wrong, and I agree that having a more ge…

Yeah everyone thinks its great at the things they don't personally know that much about or appreciate and I think it's kind of embarrassing to proclaim its going to do someone else's speciality great but not theirs and just reveals an underlying ignorance.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#213

Post by vanuatu »

aurareturn wrote: post #151
poidos wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat.

Exactly. I see software engineering going the way of accounting or lawyer. Every business needs an accountant and a lawyer on hand. In the past, hiring one software engineer to build custom software for your small or midsized business was not worth it. What can one software engineer build? Maybe an MVP in a year? No chance it was worth it for the vast majority of businesses. Outside of corporations or tech companies,…

It's even better than accounting or lawyers, because good software engineers can build incredible businesses from scratch instead of being tied to the number of businesses that exist

SWEs are more leveraged than ever and we've seen comp drastically rise for top performers

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#214

Post by 5701652400 »

DarkVanilla wrote: post #164

My wife was replaced by A.I. She was a programmer. Her company openly build an agent for the purpose of replacing her (and a few others), and they got rid of her about a month after it started working.

damn. hope you guys are ok. what was aftermath? did she get a new job? is it in still in software?

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#215

Post by vanuatu »

euwuw wrote: post #156
aurareturn wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. I see software engineering going the way of accounting or lawyer. Every business needs an accountant and a lawyer on hand. In the past, hiring one software engineer to build custom software for your small or midsized business was not worth it. What can one software engineer build? Maybe an MVP in a year? No chance it was worth it for the vast majority of businesses. Outside of corporations or tech companies,…

“ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ” No they won’t. Productivity does not determine the wage rate.

curious as to why

most top swe comp comes from equity in the company, which benefits from productivity

not only that but the leveraged nature of swe means top performers are in perpetual shortage and low performers contribute negative productivity

anecdotally weve seen comp rise as the best candidates have multiple competing offers as well as the freedom to start their own business

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#216

Post by hiq »

lelanthran wrote: post #51
simianwords wrote: post #26

Just look and see what Cloud did for software engineers? It pushed us one level higher and lowered the demand for "db experts" and "low level systems people". The only ones who remained were the strong ones who were hired into the cloud companies. The rest moved up and changed careers. Why would anyone think the same thing won't apply here? If you are still a Typescript bunny who fiddles with some newly learned React…

> Why would anyone think the same thing won't apply here? Because there's nothing to "move up into" other than "spec, optionally design". Because the jobs that had "spec, design but don't code" already existed for decades, and pay less than half what the "design + code" person earned.

Not sure what you mean by spec and design, but around me, that's always been paid more than simply coding. If you have a clean technical spec that's detailed enough, the code naturally flows and is often left to more junior engineers, with more senior folks reviewing the code but rarely writing it.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#217

Post by eks391 »

DarkVanilla wrote: post #164

My wife was replaced by A.I. She was a programmer. Her company openly build an agent for the purpose of replacing her (and a few others), and they got rid of her about a month after it started working.

Dang. I bet the morale of the peers still working there is poor.

My team got a new boss 18mo ago. He had obvious favoritism, and his favorite person happened to be the only person who wasn't a team player. He also over the course of the 18mo, figured out a way to fire every remote worker, no matter how good their past performance was (one even has won several awards above our bosses level; our boss always gives recognition only to that one toxic person). So no replacements via AI, but folks have been feeling really unvalued, much how I would expect an AI replacement to be. Everyone in my supervisor's team, including my supervisor (who is high functioning autistic, and frequently made fun of by our boss), have been applying for jobs elsewhere. I hope for their mental health that they are successful. I did bring up problems with HR a couple times, and even found in the work policies rules that were being violated by him, and that's when I've learned that, at least here, they are just words, and I needed to get out because I was painting a target on my back. Several others also raised concerns, and most of them are the same ones who have since found work elsewhere.

In other news, I've got a job lined up that I will be going to very soon, and I'm excited for that!

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#218

Post by 5701652400 »

zaik wrote: post #75
kiviuq wrote: post #70

> There is great anxiety about AI replacing jobs. It's always the business owner who replaces workers. Let's not anthropomorphize a bunch of graphics cards

If the bunch of graphics cards becomes truly more efficient, business owners who want to hire humans will not be able to compete.

they would not be able to compete with grapic cards either.

what are they providing? to whom? if economy collapses (everybody looses jobs). nobody can pay for whatever he is offering in his business. and neither is he would be able to buy even cards or electricity himself. if economy goes to a halt (Mad Max scenario or if it is socialist collapse, Soviet style). there is no "business" even conceptially anymore.

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#219

Post by s_dev »

JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

>Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly.

Jervons Paradox

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

#220

Post by vanuatu »

rkozik1989 wrote: post #138
JimDabell wrote: post #65

We have been aggressively and enthusiastically automating away software engineering for the entire history of the computer industry. Every time we do so, we are able to build bigger, better things more quickly. When this happens, our work becomes more valuable and expectations rise to match. The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far. AI hasn’t replaced software engineers because every time we becom…

"The world’s appetite for software has been insatiable so far." Yeah, I don't that does not necessarily mean everyone is looking for the latest and greatest. Many businesses are still reliant on technologies like custom spreadsheets and Microsoft Access because they do exactly what they want them to do, have a fixed rate, and rarely require any additional modifications/maintenance. Once you step outside of the bubble…

that kind of implies theres a ton of room for progress right?

imagine if we got new shit that worked better

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