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Policy on the AI Exponential

darioamodei.com

211–220 of 280 posts

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#211

I know this is likely just for IPO hype but when I read things like this I sometimes wonder if I must be missing something. I use agents everyday and find them really useful and they save me a lot of headache. At the same time I find that if I let it self-direct at a high level at all it generally makes bad choices that cause me headaches later so I can’t really give them autonomy. Enough people seem to believe this…

What did your AI-assisted workflow look like 1 year ago? I can only speak for myself, but I would carefully specify a class or module in great detail and then hand it off to the model to implement, then carefully review the result. How about 2 years ago? Back then, I wouldn't even trust it to write a 5-line function without making some sort of silly mistake. Today, I can leave an agent running by itself for 20 or 30…

https://fortune.com/2026/01/29/100-percent-of-code-at-anthro...

I feel like the problem is there aren’t any great metrics. Boris Cherny probably gets paid like $2 mil per year. So what does it mean that Claude writes 100% of his code? And Claude writes 100% of code for most teams? Has Anthropic started laying people off? If Claude is writing 100% of code doesn’t that mean game over?

It’s both amazing and kind of a useless metric. How do I extrapolate out 100% 2-3 years from now? Super-duper 100%? Infinity infinity?

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Each of the nouns is a “size class” in literature. From small lines poem (haiku, sonnet) to larger story (fable) to very large story (opus) to culture-defining foundational (myth). It’s a fun way to say how many parameters are in the model without revealing a number like 405B or 17B which isn’t really comparable vs other models.

Interesting. Thanks for enlightening. My non-poetic brain thinks we should call then Mini, nothing, Pro, Max, and then version numbers. Exactly like Apple. It'd be so much easier to parse. Maybe the AI companies like having the affectionate names haha

I personally hate the Mini, Nothing, Pro and Max nomenclature. I find it very tacky and the confusing having to remember a "base model" exists without any descriptor.

Apple does make it worse though, they have products like the iPhone Pro Max, which combines two!

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks pretty exponential to me [1]. From a fully independent, non-profit research group. [1] https://metr.org/time-horizons/

Release date seems like a terrible x axis with how much more compute they are using. Not to mention while I like what METR is trying to measure, it is an uber specific metric. And frankly, me just complaining, they’re prompts I feel do most of the work for the AI. I’ve never gotten as detailed instructions as they give the AI for the task

Whilst true, if you had unlimited compute 5 years ago, we wouldn't be anywhere near Mythos level purely because the technology behind the models wasn't refined enough.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#215
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is basically a conspiracy theory I think this is pretty uncharitable, especially when I've provided you with a dataset you can evaluate yourself and an argument you can review for logical inconsistency. I have worked quite hard to locate data that supports your thesis, I can't find it. I've at least gone to the effort of documenting that search. Before you throw around such strong convictions, I suggest you act…

Respectfully, your link is not very convincing. But what’s interesting is that you are commenting on a post where Dario is suggesting that LLMs are so extremely powerful that they can take over, help synthesise bioweapons, help in warfare, help in drug discovery — the whole post here is to try and regulate this. If you believe AI can’t even create positive value let alone discover new things then your problem is some…

> So it is absolutely strange and contrasting to see you believe that LLMs are so weak as to create negative value while the CEO is asking about regulations because AI is too powerful.

You wouldn't ask a chemistry professor to write code. So just because LLMs create negative value for software development doesn't mean that they can't be helpful for bioweapons synthesis, especially considering the range of chemistry and biology sources Anthropic would have fed to its LLM that wouldn't be publicly accessible. The LLM doesn't even need to be particularly accurate so long as the amateur bioweapons researcher takes adequate precautions before following its instructions and does some background research beforehand.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#216
post #147

I have to be honest, I am tired of reading these arrogant, self-absorbed posts from Dario and Anthropic in general. Opening with this lord of the rings reference just feels like they are trying too hard and are untrustworthy. As annoying as their tone is, the real big danger is what they are setting up for. All this fear-mongering around Mythos, the overly aggressive controls on Fable, and these manifestos they keep…

It’s easy to dunk on them because of incentives, but consider for a moment a world in which they have access to internal, non-lobotomized models, have run evals on them and have been genuinely concerned by what they saw.

but consider for a moment a world in which they have access to internal, non-lobotomized models, have run evals on them and have been genuinely concerned by what they saw.

That world arrived with GPT-2: https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/17/openai-text-generator-dang... , https://www.weforum.org/stories/2019/02/amazing-new-ai-churn...

These people have been distinctly unreliable at predicting the robot apocalypse, yet they demand a degree of control that shouldn't be entrusted to a genuine psychic oracle.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very tech-focused message board, populated by mostly tech-insiders, so perhaps a little outside perspective will help people understand. Tech people are following a religious belief system whose utopian promise is the all-powerful computer that will end all suffering. I once read an article in reason magazine from over 30 years ago about how an advanced computer in the future will bring everyone who has eve…

> Tech people are following a religious belief system whose utopian promise is the all-powerful computer that will end all suffering. Uh, I don't really think that's anywhere close to an accurate characterization of most people here. Everyone, including Dario and any researcher at any frontier lab, knows the situation is quite scary and unprecedented. There are problems that will be solved and diseases that will be c…

Idk, I don’t see the same mindset in China. There’s a post floating around here about someone who visited the DeepSeek lab and said they just view it as another technology. Like a commodity. So I tend to think either the big tech ceo’s in America are delusional or malicious, or perhaps 50/50.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#218

I know this is likely just for IPO hype but when I read things like this I sometimes wonder if I must be missing something. I use agents everyday and find them really useful and they save me a lot of headache. At the same time I find that if I let it self-direct at a high level at all it generally makes bad choices that cause me headaches later so I can’t really give them autonomy. Enough people seem to believe this…

This is a very tech-focused message board, populated by mostly tech-insiders, so perhaps a little outside perspective will help people understand. Tech people are following a religious belief system whose utopian promise is the all-powerful computer that will end all suffering. I once read an article in reason magazine from over 30 years ago about how an advanced computer in the future will bring everyone who has eve…

I mean Amodei was hawking the doubling of human lifespan to some boomer investors, I wonder why he chose that audience. They are just afraid of dying like the rest of us plebs but instead of believing in god or other deity, they have turned the AI into one.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tech people are following a religious belief system whose utopian promise is the all-powerful computer that will end all suffering. Uh, I don't really think that's anywhere close to an accurate characterization of most people here. Everyone, including Dario and any researcher at any frontier lab, knows the situation is quite scary and unprecedented. There are problems that will be solved and diseases that will be c…

Idk, I don’t see the same mindset in China. There’s a post floating around here about someone who visited the DeepSeek lab and said they just view it as another technology. Like a commodity. So I tend to think either the big tech ceo’s in America are delusional or malicious, or perhaps 50/50.

The role of the modern American CEO is basically to be a huge grifter, no wonder when I see Amodei or Altman they always remind me Sam Bankman-Fried, who btw has now applied for pardon from Trump.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#220
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, they know their moat is evaporating as the Chinese models continue to catch up, and at a much cheaper price. Also, why has my comment been flagged? It is sitting at positive votes but has suddenly been flagged for no apparent reason?

If you mean https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48481131 , users flagged it. We can only guess why users flag things. Perhaps it was because they thought the comment broke the site guidelines by being snarky and/or fulminatey? I don't think it was an extreme case of that, so I've turned off the flags now.

Thanks big dog
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