211–220 of 426 posts
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If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google
Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
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I would retire. If you have two million euros lying around, that would be life-changing money for me. I'd put everything into VWCE and then live off interest. I think I'd spend a year in Japan just to see what it's like, then travel around a few other countries, and finally settle somewhere back in Europe - buy a small house in the middle of nowhere, renovate it, and then smoke weed and play video games until the end…
That's such a cynical take. If everyone does what you're describing, we will never make progress as a society.
I cannot imagine having untold amounts of money only to do nothing afterwards except consume the stuff put in front of you.
It will probably be a failure, that is why they are rushing it to prevent a greater failure. Microslop and Oracle are already way down from their highs. Only Nvidia as the shovel seller still performs well. People generally hate AI. The IPO price will be inflated and the stock will drop 10% on the first day, like many late stage IPOs in the 2000 bubble. Friends and family like the Kushners will cash out. Trump might…
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That's such a cynical take. If everyone does what you're describing, we will never make progress as a society.
It’s not cynical, but it is overly consumerist. I cannot imagine having untold amounts of money only to do nothing afterwards except consume the stuff put in front of you.
It's enough for a modest retirement.
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If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google
Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario?
I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.
Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history.
Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent.
If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a boring commodity business, like telecom after the bubble? Sure, railroads transformed the US, but that didn't prevent investors from losing a bunch of money first: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47900502
If it's superintelligence, we're most likely either all dead (in which case you helped cause human extinction by investing, congratulations) or else we're living on generous UBI: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/you-have-only-x-years-to-es...
Soon to be part of your portfolio if you hold Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 trackers line QQQ or SPY.
Note that index funds don't hold companies in proportion to their market cap, but in proportion to their free float (shares available to purchase on the market). Both SpaceX and OpenAI's estimated free float are around 4-5% of their shares at IPO. This means that we really are talking about companies in the sub $100M valuation in term of index fund impact (assuming under $2T for each).
Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario?
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But I don't see their models being used that much through api for all the applications that are using api nowadays. Openai is the one with the easiest api to use and the more lax about it.