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No, the scammers running those are voting for them.
Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
211–220 of 256 posts
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#212What a waste of time and energy
Agreed, instead of focusing on the rampant fraud happening under their watch they are focusing on consensual behaviour between adults.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gambling works and is normal in most of the world. No idea why the USA is puritanical about this. It's like the oldest business on the planet.
Er, I agree it's incredibly old, but also has been treated as societal ill and subject to regulation for its entire history.
Should cannabis and other currently illegal substances remain as such?
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#214I think in 10 years we'll see the rise of online sports betting, including in prediction markets form, as a new opioids epidemic.
For some amount of people they use it recreationally to blow off some steam, but theres a segment of the population that ruins their lives on it.
In some sense it may be worse than opioids because a husband (its always the guy) can ruin their families finances in secret before the wife's credit card gets declines & she pulls on the threads to find six figures of hidden debt from it and realize they are about to lose their home.
In some ways, historically having gambling located in specific geographic areas that were not within most peoples daily travel routine ensured safer use.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stocks are linked to entities that perform economic activity, i.e. make a profit, and share that profit. i.e. everyone can win. Predictions markets are just bets: one person wins, one loses.
Options (especially 0DTE options) are a lot like sports betting.
And GameStop would probably like a minute (or maybe not) to discuss the tenuous connection between some underlying economic valuations and stock price.
Yes, the stock market is underpinned by real economic activity. But, be real, there's a lot of essentially betting involved too.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#216I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight, but in practice they seem few and far between. Most markets I've seen devolve into one or more of: betting on unimportant events (e.g. sports games), insider trading, or poorly written ambiguous resolution criteria. It's just hard for me to imagine that, on net, these markets will offer more societal good than the harm we've seen from spo…
Getting inside traders to publicize their knowledge for a price is like half of the point of prediction markets
Does polymarket then have a full profile of its users to be able to distinguish insider trades vs noise?
Genuine question as I haven’t used the site and everything I know about them are comments and some articles.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
But I thought the Supreme Court said online sports betting was interstate commerce and out of the domain of state legislation. Or did I get that completely wrong?
No, the SC said the federal government can't outright ban sports betting. The logic was that a ban interferes with states right to legalize sports betting. (To be clear, it is still an nonsensical decision though. Congress does still have the power to regular gambling under the interstate commerce clause, just not outright ban it)
Why is this nonsensical? Gambling is not necessarily inter-state?
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#218For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
the argument that prediction models are sports betting is not much different than the argument that stocks are sports betting. Who's to say that capitalism isn't a competitive sport? I mean consider that people have agents making trades for them. It is basically a video game at this point.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#219For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
I'm not a fan of sports betting, but surely you can see how betting on a game is not the same thing as betting on a war? People generally don't die because of a sports game (although it happens rarely).
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#220I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight, but in practice they seem few and far between. Most markets I've seen devolve into one or more of: betting on unimportant events (e.g. sports games), insider trading, or poorly written ambiguous resolution criteria. It's just hard for me to imagine that, on net, these markets will offer more societal good than the harm we've seen from spo…
> I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight I could imagine that there's very little insight to be gained when some 23 year old has so little hope for his financial future that he's spending some of what he earned last night delivering food for uber eats on making a completely uninformed bet on a geopolitical situation involving a country he couldn't even find on a map just in cas…
ThAt's one of the interesting(?) aspects of prediction markets. Some meaningful percentage of people in the market need to be bringing some useful insight. If everyone is just making random guesses, the market isn't very useful (other than, perhaps, financially to the lucky).