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Heat pump sales rise across Europe

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Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#211

Post by dunk010 »

wattso wrote: post #105
crote wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that you need to roll out a drilling rig plus crew at all is going to be a large part of that cost. For it to become interesting for the average homeowner the price is probably going to have to drop by something like 75% - but that basically kills any margins for clever new innovations...

What I was trying to get at with the ground rod example is it’s entirely possible that you wouldn’t have to roll out a drilling rig and crew. To zoom about a bit, the main risk for heat pumps is really ugly winter peaks but besides that, ASHPs are perfect 90+% of the time. So the main role I see for GSHPs is backing up ASHPs to shave that peak, and once you scale back their role like that it seems like there’s a lot…

> really ugly winter peaks

The problem is those peaks are at the exact same time you need the heat.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#212

Post by dunk010 »

mono442 wrote: post #12
jakozaur wrote: post #8

A heat pump could win as the best HVAC technology, though a better drilling for ground-sourced ones. Just a shallow drilling (up to 100m) that works in retrofit mode, such as drilling from the basement, would be a great upgrade: - No outdoor unit that looks awful in many settings - works well, even in the coldest winter, without a spike in electricity usage, COP 5 - very reliable with long durability - super quiet, n…

It's usually so much more expensive than an air source heat pump that makes it completely not worth it.

Air-source heat pumps give their worst performance when you need heat the most. Ground source doesn't vary year-round.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#213

Post by pojzon »

rsynnott wrote: post #198
pojzon wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting looking at how EV sales plumented.

... They didn't. Globally, and in the EU and China, they're rising fairly healthily (the EU did have a ~flat year in 2024, but 2025 and so far '26 have resumed growth). They're down a little in the US, but the US is a particularly awkward market for them (preference for large cars, and domestic manufacturers are rather behind the curve).

Yup 0.6% in 2025 in Europe for sure makes a difference.

The moment subsidiary for EVs is removed, sales will plument like in US. And those will be removed as EU is going through energy and resources crisis.

EVs make sense only in China, where goverment has a working brain and invests heavly in nuclear power plants.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#214

Post by gucci-on-fleek »

heathrow83829 wrote: post #202
gucci-on-fleek wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Whatever you do: do NOT use a water softener before the tank. I'm curious why not? I can't immediately think of a reason why that would be bad, but I admittedly know hardly anything about plumbing.

water softeners in general are pretty bad. they're not great for your health, they're terrible for your soil. and the benefits to pipes and appliances are marginal at best. i completely shut down my water softener.

> the benefits to pipes and appliances are marginal at best

It probably depends on how hard your tap water is. My tap water is really hard. because it all comes from a river fed via glacial runoff in the mountains, so a water softener makes a huge difference, to the point where the water even feels different in the shower. But if your water source is naturally softer, then I can see that it would make less of a difference.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#215

Post by rsynnott »

pojzon wrote: post #213
rsynnott wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... They didn't. Globally, and in the EU and China, they're rising fairly healthily (the EU did have a ~flat year in 2024, but 2025 and so far '26 have resumed growth). They're down a little in the US, but the US is a particularly awkward market for them (preference for large cars, and domestic manufacturers are rather behind the curve).

Yup 0.6% in 2025 in Europe for sure makes a difference. The moment subsidiary for EVs is removed, sales will plument like in US. And those will be removed as EU is going through energy and resources crisis. EVs make sense only in China, where goverment has a working brain and invests heavly in nuclear power plants.

... Where are you getting that figure? BEV sales grew by about 30% in Europe last year.

> And those will be removed as EU is going through energy and resources crisis.

... Which is making petrol cars more expensive to run. Right as EVs are starting to get cheaper than petrol cars. In Ireland, say, an id.Polo starts at at 20k EUR, after a 3500 euro subsidy. A _normal_ Polo starts at 25k. Even without the subsidy, the EV version is still cheaper.

And petrol is 1.90eur/litre right now and rising. A Polo does about 20km/l, so 950eur/10,000km. The id.Polo does 13.3 kWh/100km, that is 0.133kWh per km. On a normal 24 hour tariff of 30c/kwh, that's 399eur/10,000km. If you're okay with charging it between 2am and 4am, and are on a smart meter plan with cheap early-morning energy (you probably should be if you have a BEV) it's more like 100eur/10,000km. If you have solar panels, it's likely approximately free.

(If you want to get a bit weird, some providers offer free electricity on weekends in exchange for more expensive energy during the week, so if that fits your usage pattern... Some European countries, though not Ireland, have providers who'll offer tariffs based on spot price plus a margin, so in some cases you can even get paid for charging it, as spot prices can go negative! That said, if you want to do any of the seriously esoteric stuff, you're probably looking for something with more range than the base id.Polo.)

So given that, if you have space for a charger at home... why are you buying the petrol version? I think 2026 will actually be a bit of a bumper year for EVs; they're finally beginning to get to the price level where they're cheaper than the equiv petrol car _even if you ignore running costs_.

And this is Ireland, which has about the highest electricity costs in Europe.

(This isn't just the Polo, btw; VW EVs generally come in a bit cheaper than the equivalent petrol version after subsidies, though the id.Polo may be the only one that's cheaper even _without_ subsidies right now. Which broadly makes sense as it's the newest.)

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#216

Post by wattso »

dunk010 wrote: post #211
wattso wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I was trying to get at with the ground rod example is it’s entirely possible that you wouldn’t have to roll out a drilling rig and crew. To zoom about a bit, the main risk for heat pumps is really ugly winter peaks but besides that, ASHPs are perfect 90+% of the time. So the main role I see for GSHPs is backing up ASHPs to shave that peak, and once you scale back their role like that it seems like there’s a lot…

> really ugly winter peaks The problem is those peaks are at the exact same time you need the heat.

Yes that’s precisely what I’m talking about. The role I’m envisioning for GSHPs is as backup to ASHPs to reduce those peaks.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#217

Post by EdwardDiego »

cassepipe wrote: post #60

I think there's one big issue for massive electrification and insulation of buildings: renting. As a renter, I have no incentives to invest thousands in my home's betterment because I will have lost those when I am gone. As an owner, I have no incentives to make my apartment/house better because I don't live in it and I don't pay the energy bills. Something has to be done about that if we want to combat climate chang…

> As an owner, I have no incentives to make my apartment/house better because I don't live in it and I don't pay the energy bills.

In a rental market with more supply than demand, having more efficient / cheaper heating is an advantage to attract tenants - but this kind of market in residential housing is typically rare these days.

Which is why governments need to enforce this by regulation, e.g., in my country landlords are required to meet insulation / heating / ventilation standards that often end up with their rental housing being better insulated and heated than the homes that the landlords live in themselves.

https://www.tenancy.govt.nz/healthy-homes/

If you own an older home and are renting it out, you'll often find that the heating capacity is too low for the modern standards, and in that case, a heat-pump is usually the most cost effective solution.

What also makes these standards work is that a lot of banks offer cheap loans for energy efficiency upgrades: for example https://www.anz.co.nz/personal/home-loans-mortgages/loan-typ...

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#218

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

masklinn wrote: post #190
tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most split A/Cs can also heat. "Heat pump" can mean many things, from essentially "split A/C" (air-air heat pumps) to ground-source heat pumps, using floor heating for the output, warm water production from the heat pump, etc.

Split ACs which can heat but are not billed as heat pumps will very often use resistive heaters.

The ones I saw all promised heat output significantly higher than the electrical input in heating mode, so I'm sure they were actually heat pumps.

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#219

Post by cenamus »

magicalhippo wrote: post #162
cenamus wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, recently saw some numbers for air-to-air vs air-to-groundwater, and it break even after more than 25 years, with more than twice the initial cost

> more than twice the initial cost Here in Norway you can get a decent air-to-air minisplit installed for $2k. I've not heard of anyone who paid less than 10x that for an air-to-ground or water-to-ground system, drilling 500-1000 feet is expensive.

Sorry, I actually meant air-water vs. water-water for my comment, makes less sense this way...

Re: Heat pump sales rise across Europe

#220

Post by noplacelikehome »

spiffotron wrote: post #179
pandora-health wrote: post #38

I run daily comparisons between a gas boiler and a heat pump in the UK. Given that gas is cheaper than electricity, a well-installed and well-controlled gas boiler can still be cheaper to run. Heat pump running costs can drop drastically when combined with solar and battery storage, but that requires a much greater upfront investment. https://x.com/AO7186252340513 https://bsky.app/profile/showpiece.bsky.social

I have always wondered if a heat pump is even worth it if you don't have solar, all well and good the government giving massive discounts on heatpumps but not for a combined heatpump/solar install which would probably actually push most people towards it

IMO we don’t place enough emphasis on the gain in comfort: my home is a solid 21°C at all times since we replaced our aging gas boiler. The larger radiators, lower water temperature and “always on” operation have removed the temperature swings.

Heat loss in our home is high (single skin brick), but our bills over the course of the year are on a par with having the heating running for 12h a day. They are substantially more expensive during the winter when temperatures drop below 5°C, but that isn’t noticeable when averaging the bills out over the year.

Got to do our roof in the next couple of years so solar is a natural next step for us.

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