Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

aphyr.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

211–220 of 830 posts

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#211

Post by bluefirebrand »

nradov wrote: post #190
MarcelOlsz wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have this misconception that first it was one way, and then , and they'll wake up and suddenly it is another. It's a slow creep. 10 years ago there were 5 of us on a team each responsible for something specific. Now I can do all of that. Teams and companies will downsize. How do you see AI creating more jobs? (I need some hope right now lol).

A few hundred years ago it took a team of 5 plus draft animals plough a field. Now one guy with a tractor can do it. Some teams and companies will downsize. New companies will appear doing things that we can't even imagine yet.

> New companies will appear doing things that we can't even imagine yet.

I read this take a lot but I don't buy it. This isn't guaranteed by any means. And even if it does happen, isn't it just as likely that AI is deployed into those companies too and they don't actually result in any job growth?

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#212

Post by camgunz »

Aerroon wrote: post #178
nehal3m wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectfully, without judgement, your perspective may be wildly skewed because you’re American (going by your post history). I suspect the negative externalities in a society built around cars don’t register with you because to you it is the normal state of the world. As a Dutchman, I grew up in a built world that is based around the human scale and to me your parent’s claim comes across as astonishingly obvious.

I suppose in the Netherlands they use carts and horses to stock up the supermarket? To transport coal to the powerplant (or the wind turbine blades to where the wind turbine will be built)? Surely a bicycle isn't enough for that. You might be only talking about personal cars, but you've got to remember that trucks share the same infrastructure cars use. Modern city wealth wouldn't be possible without engined vehicles…

This is a pretty large amount of words to burn down a straw man.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#213

Post by catapart »

lionkor wrote: post #82
Philpax wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The front page is currently home to the announcement of Qwen 3.6 35B, which has comparable performance to the flagship coding models of a few months ago, and can be run at home by those with a gaming computer or MBP from the last five years. It is happening, but there will always be some lag.

Yes, but every time the capabilities, security, accuracy, or any other quality of LLMs is challenged, the default answer is that we'll essentially have AGI in a quarter or two. It's very tiring to try to argue with people about current quality, when the argument is always to wait and/or pay for a super expensive model.

right on. I certainly empathize with your frustrations about "AGI". but rest assurred, I'm firmly in the camp of "not in my lifetime" and even further in the camp of "not without at least 3 more massive breakthroughs about things we currently do not understand at all". so sorry if it sounded like I was asking "what about when local llms get SUPER GOOD", or something. that's not at all what I meant. All I was asking was - "Claude Code can currently be pointed to a directory and then be chatted with about what it needs to do in that directory to make a full code project. That ability is already available on local machines through a ton of convoluted setup, but it's almost certainly going to be a packaged solution within a year (and possibly within the next few months/weeks/days). So when that packaged solution arrives and the choices are 'use the llm for scaffolding which takes 3 hours of unattended time' or 'build the scaffolding myself which takes 6 hours of deep focus time', what will still be objectionable about choosing the former?"

and, to be clear, it's an earnest question. like I've said elsewhere, I have concerns about over-reliance on the tech, but once it all moves local, a lot of those concerns become much more trivial. so I'm curious if other people have concerns that remain pressing and practical.

ETA: I'm aware that Claude wouldn't take 3 hours to do this, while using its massive warehouses of GPUS. I'm estimating what I think is a reasonable time for a single-gpu device to produce something workable.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#214

Post by prescriptivist »

nehal3m wrote: post #149
prescriptivist wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could say many of the broad and widespread mental issues we have in the US is the result of automobiles leading to suburbanization and thus isolation of people. Yes, you could say that, though I'm not sure who would actually say that seriously.

Respectfully, without judgement, your perspective may be wildly skewed because you’re American (going by your post history). I suspect the negative externalities in a society built around cars don’t register with you because to you it is the normal state of the world. As a Dutchman, I grew up in a built world that is based around the human scale and to me your parent’s claim comes across as astonishingly obvious.

I didn't really say what my perspective is on whether the suburbs are good or bad or cars are good or bad. I think there are plenty of reasonable arguments as to whether they are or not. What I am dubious about is that they are somehow the source of some hand-wavy "widespread" mental health issue in America.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#215

Post by iamnothere »

Earw0rm wrote: post #127
1234letshaveatw wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It's fine if people choose it. It's not fine if that choice denies other people the choice not to. And there seems to be a lot of the latter. For example, when shopping facilities or hospitals are built so as to be, de-facto, only accessible by automobile, that locks people out of the choice to say no thanks.

This is a regional problem. Legislation to require pedestrian accessibility would fix it.

Where I live every new development must build out sidewalks as a condition of permitting.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#216

Post by recursive »

cryptopian wrote: post #200
Aerroon wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose in the Netherlands they use carts and horses to stock up the supermarket? To transport coal to the powerplant (or the wind turbine blades to where the wind turbine will be built)? Surely a bicycle isn't enough for that. You might be only talking about personal cars, but you've got to remember that trucks share the same infrastructure cars use. Modern city wealth wouldn't be possible without engined vehicles…

There's a lot of people in this comment thread interpreting the post's analogy as "ban all cars forever" rather than "consider how to use them as part of a wider societal strategy that makes places better for everyone". You can implement all kinds of transport badly. Trains can suck if they don't take you where you want to go, bicycles suck if wherever you live doesn't provide acceptable parking methods. Cars are gre…

It seems like a hard argument to make that bikes can suck more than cars because of parking. As a bicycle enthusiast, I can provide you with some better reasons. You'll get rained on. You'll get sweaty. The helmet will mess up your fancy hair. You can't go as fast.

Parking is one of the biggest upsides of bikes IMO.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#217

Post by nehal3m »

prescriptivist wrote: post #214
nehal3m wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectfully, without judgement, your perspective may be wildly skewed because you’re American (going by your post history). I suspect the negative externalities in a society built around cars don’t register with you because to you it is the normal state of the world. As a Dutchman, I grew up in a built world that is based around the human scale and to me your parent’s claim comes across as astonishingly obvious.

I didn't really say what my perspective is on whether the suburbs are good or bad or cars are good or bad. I think there are plenty of reasonable arguments as to whether they are or not. What I am dubious about is that they are somehow the source of some hand-wavy "widespread" mental health issue in America.

I wouldn't be surprised if it contributed significantly because of the lack of (access to) third places [0] it breeds, but that is conjecture on my part, so fair enough.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_place

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#218

Post by recursive »

cucumber3732842 wrote: post #153
code_for_monkey wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say that seriously, so there you go, theres two.

It's a turn of phrase. The belief isn't being called unserious. The holders of the belief are. It's the "white collar speak" approved way of saying those people are dumb or otherwise not worthy of consideration. "I don't know anyone who seriously thinks that stone applied to fibrous asphalt is not a fine roofing material" "I do not know anyone who seriously thinks that 4000kcal/day is healthy in normal circumstances"…

I don't know anyone who seriously thinks that one could just say "I don't know anyone who seriously thinks" something, and that would constitute a persuasive argument. :)

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#219

Post by iamnothere »

mynameisbilly wrote: post #179
1234letshaveatw wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't follow, are people then not able to choose to live somewhere that has shopping facilities or hospitals that are built so as not to be only accessible by automobile?

We shouldn't have to completely upend our lives to move to the small handful of major cities that provide the infrastructure to exist comfortably without a car. At least in the US, your options are limited to NYC, Chicago, Boston, and maybe a few others (Seattle/SF). And even then, the hard set default in these major cities is car ownership EXCEPT for NYC.

How is Bumfuck MT, population 250, going to support the infrastructure to live comfortably without a car?

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#220

Post by MarcelOlsz »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #77
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's becoming so ubiquitous, I highly doubt it. At worst I think a manager would just see it as fluff, but not a negative.

I hope the hiring managers I would actually want to work for would see it as a red flag on resumes

Why? It's just the name of the game, everyone gets it. Especially if you're a generalist/frontend type.
Post reply on HN