211–220 of 298 posts
Betting "no" on an outcome, is bettering "yes" on ALL other possible outcomes. There is even an operation for it: https://docs.polymarket.com/advanced/neg-risk
Joe Dart elected president Y/N
Cory Wong elected president Y/N
A no bet on Joe Dart is not a yes bet on Cory Wong.
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My general observation is that people tend to underestimate the likelihood of black swan events (covid, financial crisis) even as it's pretty obvious they're happening. And then when they do accept it, they react too far the other way and assume it's never going to end. I've had success playing the markets in these specific cases. I did fritter away a lot of my gains from the financial crisis thinking I was a genius…
They underestimate the likelihood of black swan because it is very hard for adults to concretely imagine things that have not happened before and then even temporarily fully believe ~"dreams will come true." One of my go-tos on this is the Fukushima nuclear accident. IIUC there were plenty of folks in Japan who knew of the high risk. Perhaps many interested in nuclear energy outside of Japan, too. But the average adu…
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_purpose_of_a_system_is_wha...
Compare and contrast https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/come-on-obviously-the-purpo...
>These are obviously false.
The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. "Years-long stalemate with Russia? Yes, please." -the US. Seems like an overwhelmingly common Scott Alexander L.
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Yes, but I always found that objection a bit silly. It's like pointing out that real cows are obviously not perfect spheres nor do they live in a vacuum. > [...] if prices perfectly reflected available information, there is no profit to gathering information, in which case there would be little reason to trade and markets would eventually collapse.[2] That's a stupid way to formulate this. Markets wouldn't "collapse"…
Maybe not "collapse" in a the sense of going to zero but if there was no profit to trading, then the quant trading industry would not exist, trading profits would collapse. Meanwhile Two Sigma is hiring alpha quants to be AI research scientists at $250k starting salary + bonuses. Even if we're just talking about the HFT/sell-side, there clearly exist various anomalous inefficiencies that can be exploited. Fama's guy…
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Compare and contrast https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/come-on-obviously-the-purpo...
>The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to get stuck in a years-long stalemate with Russia. >These are obviously false. The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. "Years-long stalemate with Russia? Yes, please." -the US. Seems like an overwhelmingly common Scott Alexander L.
Since when does country A decide what the purpose of country B's military is?
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>The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to get stuck in a years-long stalemate with Russia. >These are obviously false. The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. "Years-long stalemate with Russia? Yes, please." -the US. Seems like an overwhelmingly common Scott Alexander L.
> The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. Since when does country A decide what the purpose of country B's military is?
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> The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. Since when does country A decide what the purpose of country B's military is?
Since country A pays for country B's military.
Betting "no" on an outcome, is bettering "yes" on ALL other possible outcomes. There is even an operation for it: https://docs.polymarket.com/advanced/neg-risk