Live data from Hacker News

US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

211–220 of 1001 posts

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. No way they’re opening the Strait of Hormuz until the US/Israel gets the fuck out of Iran.

They’re not in Iran. Both countries have announced an end to offensive operations in the past half hour or so.

I thought it was only for two weeks? Unless I'm missing some big news.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#213

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Do you have a source for this being the 10 points which form the basis of negotiations, rather than something released to the media to shape those negotiations?

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't buy it. The only way this could be more humiliating for the US is if Trump agreed to do a public apology from Tehran. No way the Gulf countries and Israel would even entertain the thought.

I wonder how badly damaged the Gulf countries as Israel were in the past few days. I have the impression a lot of the damage caused by Iran is being hidden and downplayed.

None of the targets have anything remotely resembling free press. So yes, the real effects were censored.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#215
post #202

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

They also got to keep their new Ayatollah and continue with their religious government. An escalation of the war would have certainly ended with a complete regime change. Which would have been very expensive in life (Iranians) and money (Americans).

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#216

What is even the point of all the flip flopping if there’s ongoing talks? I feel like the doesn’t put any real pressure on Iran, but I may be uninformed.

I am guessing that the Oman's share Homruz fees will also shared with Trump businesses (via loss making investments, or another plane etc)

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#217
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?

The old government is largely dead. The new one has a carrot and a stick in front of them.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#218

Better article with text: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/trump-iran-w... > Israel will also agree to the two-week ceasefire, Axios reported, citing an Israeli official, adding that the ceasefire would enter effect as soon as the blockade of the strait of Hormuz ceased There’s the catch.

Yes, seems a bit of a gap between US and Iranian opinions on the state of the strait. US says "open it", while Iran has for some time claimed it is open - only subject to conditions. Then, as you mention, the Israelis talk of an end to the blockade.

I foresee a possible relaxation of conditions on the strait by Iran while keeping their hand on the lever providing substantial leverage during any actual negotiations. I also note that it seems the US are considering Iranian demands - not the other way around. Even with that, Trumps' toughest negotiations may be with the Israelis.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#219
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?

> why would the US concede?

Because it has no way of achieving its objectives.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#220
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?

Because it doesn’t have a choice. There is no path to winning this war, just ways of making larger and more complex versions of the Iraq occupation.
Post reply on HN