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Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

blog.danieldavies.com

211–220 of 228 posts

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> stock options did become nearly universal in tech compensation Although I've noticed that options have been replaced more and more these days with RSU's (plain old grants) because options have a tendency to go "underwater", suggesting that they weren't all that great to begin with.

> options have been replaced more and more these days with RSU's (plain old grants) RSUs are also much-less liquid and tightly controllable by companies than actual stock. That has made them attractive to management and insiders.

>> RSUs are also much-less liquid

Every time I got an RSU I could just sign into my RSU account and press a single button which sold them all, put a portion of the proceeds aside for taxes, and deposited the rest as cash directly into my bank account within 1-2 business days.

How are options more liquid than that?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#212
post #207
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What behavioral incentive do lotto tickets give the buyer? Options/stock work for both parties because of alignment.

I'm kind of getting at the fact that people tend to optimistically overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This is true for lottery tickets, and stock options (every startup is definitely going to the moon). From the company's perspective, options/equity are great for creating alignment. From an employee perspective, employees need to understand that they are making a bet and have limited control over the o…

I agree with that aspect, but I still think there's a difference. You can't effect the outcome of lotto ticket. To some extent, you can with stock. The incentive probably helps the company more than it helps the individual, but that's the nice part of the feedback again.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, turning it around doesn't work because it's cause and effect. "Present the facts and all the people will cheer and support stop using coal" -> correct "If not it means stopping using coal is a bad idea?" -> incorrect, because people are against switching to renewables because of lies, not because of facts

> incorrect, because people are against switching to renewables because of lies, not because of facts Do you really think that if you presented the truth to a MAGA follower that believes climate change is a communist scam that they will just see reason and support your position just because you presented them with the facts?

No, but what else is there to do?

If, despite best attempts for me to communicate facts to them within our common language, they still can not recognize basic truth or fact from their subjective truth? I don't really see that a problem for the speaker, but a problem for the listener.

That's no way that the opposite expectation can scale as a society. Otherwise we would all need to validate everyone else's words constantly with primary source documents. There must be some level of trust in order to communicate efficiently, surely.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil and coolant? No, someone has lied to you. EVs do not need either changed.

They need coolant for the battery and motor which degrades, and they need oil for the gearbox. I guess you're in the US, where "lifetime oil" is a thing. Expect the gearbox to be scrap once it's a little outside the warranty period.

Based on your attitude I now can't tell if you're being led astray or if you're actively attempting to lead others astray. Here's a set of guidelines for that vehicle, which do not remotely align with your claims:

https://www.wilsonkia.com/service/service-tips/kia-niro-main...

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you, this makes sense out of the gate, and I appreciate you sharing! I'm not seeing you calculate any repair costs for your vehicle. Or depreciation overall, especially not replacement. What year do you expect to replace your vehicle? What would you replace it with? How much would you get for trading in your vehicle if you buy a new car now? I think you're missing pretty large parts of the math - what happens i…

Repair costs are pretty minimal. I just spent £120 on some bearings that I intend to replace while I'm off for the Easter holidays which isn't bad. I don't much care about the depreciation on a 30-year-old vehicle that I bought outright for considerably less than the price of a single car payment for something new. I doubt I'd get anything for trading it in, and I'd probably get about £100-£150 if I scrapped it, or s…

I get you, I really do. I love being able to repair my own things, I'm comfortable in a shop, and I used to have this attitude.

But man, these ships sailed a long time ago. You don't get anything out of being a stick in the mud except undervaluing your time.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Don't you think they need serviced or something?

I've owned my Tesla for 6 years and 50,000 miles. The only service it's needed beyond tires, wiper blades, and wiper fluid is a replacement of the low-voltage battery last year, which was under $200. If you're paying $300/year to service your EV, either you drive a LOT or you're getting ripped off. There's nothing in an EV that requires $300/year in service. There's no oil changes, no transmission fluid. Brake pads w…

The person you're replying to is just not having a conversation in good faith.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Repair costs are pretty minimal. I just spent £120 on some bearings that I intend to replace while I'm off for the Easter holidays which isn't bad. I don't much care about the depreciation on a 30-year-old vehicle that I bought outright for considerably less than the price of a single car payment for something new. I doubt I'd get anything for trading it in, and I'd probably get about £100-£150 if I scrapped it, or s…

I get you, I really do. I love being able to repair my own things, I'm comfortable in a shop, and I used to have this attitude. But man, these ships sailed a long time ago. You don't get anything out of being a stick in the mud except undervaluing your time.

and national security.

Also, given enough hardware, home, or at least local area, repairs save both time and money in practice.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've owned my Tesla for 6 years and 50,000 miles. The only service it's needed beyond tires, wiper blades, and wiper fluid is a replacement of the low-voltage battery last year, which was under $200. If you're paying $300/year to service your EV, either you drive a LOT or you're getting ripped off. There's nothing in an EV that requires $300/year in service. There's no oil changes, no transmission fluid. Brake pads w…

> no oil changes, no transmission fluid There is. You think those gears run completely dry? > Brake pads will last forever since regen should be doing at least 90% of your braking. Turns out they don't. Maybe if you are driving slowly in a completely flat part of the world they will. In an ICE-powered car, engine braking does most of the work anyway. Incidentally, a set of brake pads lasts me two or three years, even…

> There is. You think those gears run completely dry?

Sure, there's a fixed gear reduction that is lubricated, but it doesn't need frequent changing. It's a sealed unit. No moisture or debris from the outside gets in. As a result, it lasts an exceptionally long time, likely even the life of the car.

> Turns out they don't. Maybe if you are driving slowly in a completely flat part of the world they will.

I drive in Portland, which is anything but flat. I rarely use the foot brake.

> In an ICE-powered car, engine braking does most of the work anyway.

Absolutely not, especially in modern automatics which coast exceptionally well.

Another commenter said you're arguing in bad faith, and at this point, I'm highly inclined to believe them. You really just have no idea what you're talking about. Somebody has sold you lies, and the disappointing thing is, you bought the lies and even argue against people with first-hand experience.

You really just don't have a clue.

If you don't want an EV because an EV doesn't fit your lifestyle, that's fine. You mentioned pulling heavy trailers frequently. EVs absolutely suck balls at that. Sure, they've got tons of torque and certainly have the power to pull a trailer, but their range goes into the toilet. So an EV doesn't work for you, and that's okay, but that doesn't mean you have to believe in lies and spread them.

For fuck's sake, the brake pad thing is very widely known and accepted. I have no idea how you got convinced that brake pads in EVs don't last. Yes, they're heavy cars, but regen braking is huge. EVs actually typically have brake problems from the brakes being underused.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The average rank and file employee at any BigTech company knows only a minuscule more than the general public. They know the clients, the contracts, hiring, cost cutting way before the general public does. The problem is that many BigTech is sum of many units which might not be correlated, but for say Nvidia or Apple I would assume the employees would be a good people to take the stock advice from.

And this is again an obviously naive assumption. Your average developer at Apple has no idea how many iPhones Apple sold in China. Nor do Nvidia employees they know how many GPUs NVidia sold. Your random Amazon developer didn’t know Jassy was going to announce at the earnings call that Amazon was going to announce that they were going to spend more this year on Capex for AI related hardware than they’d free cash flow…

> Your average developer at Apple has no idea how many iPhones Apple sold in China.

But if anyone is connected to few friends across team, they would know they are hiring for China sales team(or dependent team like internal tooling for sales etc.) aggressively or firing them.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is again an obviously naive assumption. Your average developer at Apple has no idea how many iPhones Apple sold in China. Nor do Nvidia employees they know how many GPUs NVidia sold. Your random Amazon developer didn’t know Jassy was going to announce at the earnings call that Amazon was going to announce that they were going to spend more this year on Capex for AI related hardware than they’d free cash flow…

> Your average developer at Apple has no idea how many iPhones Apple sold in China. But if anyone is connected to few friends across team, they would know they are hiring for China sales team(or dependent team like internal tooling for sales etc.) aggressively or firing them.

As large as any big tech company is and as a silo’d few employees have friends across teams. Besides that, at every tech company, all information like that is a need to know and isn’t shared with “friends” - especially information that can move markets.
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