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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#211

Post by [deleted] »

PaulHoule wrote: post #173
ipaddr wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The insiders ruin a market like this. Unlike in sports/stocks there are no rules / punishment for insider trading.

Yeah there are all those stupid things like "what color of Gatorade will they pour over players at the end of the game" that are ultimately about some arbitrary decision an individual or small group. Probably a whole sports game is fair to bet on because it involves so many sub-events but people gamble on things that make no sense to be gambling on.

[deleted]

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#212

Post by Balgair »

Waterluvian wrote: post #43
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

I think the idea behind a prediction market is pretty interesting, especially from an economics dataset point-of-view. And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?" But we're in an era of less and less responsible government oversight, so the whole thing naturally gets ruined if there's no guardrails to prevent peoeple without souls or…

Friend of a friend does announcing online.

Like, you pay him a little (So, he got a gig to announce the opening of loot boxes at some show. I think it was Fortnite loot boxes. I guess it gives you the total value of the loot box spree you opened. So, 2 people buy a bunch of loot boxes, then open them up, then whoever has the higher value wins and takes both of the people's total haul.

Sounds like a strange thing to have to announce, but sure the guy says you pay and I'll say.

No, it was gambling for the watchers on polymarket [0]. People were betting on who would have the higher value. 'Like a lot of people' he said.

That's High Card. "A lot of" people were betting on games of High Card, essentially.

You know, shuffle a deck, draw 2 cards, whoever has the higher value one wins. Repeat.

It is the most Degenerate form of gambling out there. There is no skill, no human factor, no nothing. Just pure random numbers.

My lord, what a plague we have unleashed. We'll be dealing with this for decades.

[0] no idea if polymarket and the like do things this quickly, but he said they were gambling somehow with another site off of Twitch and then waved his phone, implying you can access it that easily.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#213

Post by twodave »

tclancy wrote: post #138
twodave wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putting aside this is sort of a knee-jerk reaction, if this was actually implemented you’d just see the role of the CEO change to basically be a highly-paid fall-guy. People in those positions today would vacate them for quieter roles behind the scenes, and corporations would put greater effort forth to hide their decision making processes. I don’t think it would be a better system.

>you’d just see the role of the CEO change to basically be a highly-paid fall-guy. That seems to be assuming a world where CEOs actually face meaningful consequences and that feels like a good start.

"Meaningful consequences" in this case means "throwing a CEO in jail until they de-anonymize their platform," which sounds ripe for abuse to me.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#215

Post by civvv »

iamacyborg wrote: post #197
civvv wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>(why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) The type of person at the top of a hierarchical system is always a direct reflection of its play rules. In late-stage internet capitalism you win by being the most unhinged and un-emphatic. Today's young adults grew up on twitter, 4chan, video game gambling and with influencers telling them that the only thing that matters is material wealth and status. This culture h…

> late-stage internet capitalism This isn't a thing. Capitalism is just capitalism.

I don't know. Certainly the underlying mechanisms of capitalism remain the same, but it does not hurt to clarify the context that it exists within. The world is very different today, than say the 1960's, but the "rules" were the same. Capitalism has been accelerated a lot by the rise of information technology, specifically the internet, and today it is a whole different beast with unique "opportunities" and consequences.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#216

Post by heavyset_go »

echoangle wrote: post #47
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

It’s not even close to being the worst thing in my opinion. There are people driven into suicide by blackmailing them over social media and people selling murder for hire on the Darknet. Some death threats are pretty harmless compared to that, assuming that nothing actually happens (which is pretty likely in my opinion).

> people selling murder for hire on the Darknet.

It's always a honeypot, no one besides local junkies and people with personal beefs will do a murder for hire that a working person can afford.

There are people who are dumb enough to go to prison after paying like $1k-$10k for a "murder", like after a flight and hotel how much are you expecting your would-be assassin to make?

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#218

Post by WarmWash »

bhouston wrote: post #94

An additional complication is that both Iran and Israel are engaging in heavy censorship of news articles, obstensively to prevent the opposing side from getting intelligence/feedback on their missile strikes/other activities, but it is also definitely to control the narrative: https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/ This could definitely affect key polymarket bets in the near term. I expect over the…

The effect of this is that those markets should dry up as the information quality is so poor. So bad that even insiders are taking risk by betting on an outcome.

Unlike the regular markets though, which are dominated by smart money, these markets are dominated by degen gamblers and idiots, so I guess they just shrug it off.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#219

Post by Forgeties79 »

iamacyborg wrote: post #197
civvv wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>(why do all billionaires seem devoid of ethics?) The type of person at the top of a hierarchical system is always a direct reflection of its play rules. In late-stage internet capitalism you win by being the most unhinged and un-emphatic. Today's young adults grew up on twitter, 4chan, video game gambling and with influencers telling them that the only thing that matters is material wealth and status. This culture h…

> late-stage internet capitalism This isn't a thing. Capitalism is just capitalism.

Pretty sure every single economist would disagree with you
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