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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#211

Post by jeffbee »

iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #137
patmorgan23 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the alternatives, and do other countries labor statistics agencies use them?

Alternative is to build something better. Just about anything is better than the current survey system. What I would propose is something akin to "derived real-data unemployment system". All this data exists now, but is distributed. It can be stitched together, but if one was so inclined. No, it doesn't mean I am wrong.

"BLS CPS is worse than a hypothetical better thing" is tautological, void, and without meaning.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#212

Post by asdff »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #205
indymike wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Actual evidence of kompromats? Epstein.

I'm not following the file disclosures in particular detail; I haven't yet heard any disclosures from the files that are evidence of kompromat. What are you thinking of?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/trump-jeffrey-epstein-ghisla...

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#213

Post by twodave »

kittikitti wrote: post #77

People in Florida, when I tell them about my background working with data, often scoff and claim that the data can be changed to spread lies. They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus. This is prevalent across all of America, especially after DOGE, who encourage fraud so the data supports their political interests. I think the reliability problem is very bad…

I really don’t like people bashing my state, especially when they’re repeating made-up bullshit. Do you just believe anything negative you read as long as it fits your views?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#214

Post by gambiting »

WarmWash wrote: post #40
gambiting wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. My immediate thought is - why is it a race. Like holy shit imagine if we could actually work together instead of having this mentality of "if we work hard the other countries won't catch that". As someone who grew up in the golden age of globalization and rise of the information superhighway, the way coun…

I think when Europe failed to handle Ukraine on their own, the optics started looking pretty bad.

I honestly don't even understand what you mean by that. Europe has accepted an extraordinary number of refugees from Ukraine giving them immediate and full rights to live and work within its territory, keeps donating billions of dollars worth of goods to keep Ukraine going, provides training to Ukrainian military personal and ramped up its military production specifically to bolster Ukraine.

How has Europe failed here? Did you expect Poland to start shooting missiles towards Moscow, or something else?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#215

Post by svnt »

jeffbee wrote: post #200
svnt wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a reasonable position, however the assumption that it is the administration that is gaming them vs other motivated parties is open for discussion.

It is in fact not at all reasonable. They are saying that the BLS stats can't be trusted because they totally misunderstand the survey methodology. That isn't a reason!

I’d counter that if we were doing a good job gathering data that these structural biases could be compensated for with more conservative initial numbers.

At some point a lack of decision to take compensating action becomes faking the numbers.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#216

Post by giardini »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

mark_l_watson says"The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they can while the 'grabbing is still good.' "

(1)This is normal human behavior usually described as "capitalism". It has been well-studied & the literature awaits you, e.g., The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 by Scottish economist Adam Smith. Go ahead: if you read the entire tome you may be the first man to do so. Perhaps you could write a usefully shortened version or versions of it.

mark_l_watson says"Without this immoral looting, our government could do a better job of protecting US citizens as our empire collapses."

(2)the behavior isn't immoral, as you will find by merely educating yourself [see (1)].

(3)There was/is no [US]"empire". And certainly none in the sense of the Persian, Mongol, Roman, incan, Spanish, British, French, or even, God forbid, Belgian empire, all of which were true empires.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#217

Post by [deleted] »

actionablefiber wrote: post #170
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

It's increasingly a pet theory of mine that the uncontrolled concentration of wealth into the hands of the richest, their subsequent existential ennui, and their disconnect from reality owing to media consolidation and algorithmic content feeds have basically created a world where the superrich are in a "post-game" mentality. There are no further material comforts to obtain. They just want to feel anything at all and…

[deleted]

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#218

Post by abirch »

mentalgear wrote: post #111
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

Exactly: The 0.01% Elite bleeding out the planet and their biggest worries are: 1. How do I keep my doomsday bunker servants in line? 2. Or is a ticket to Mars the better option?

Mars isn't a good option due to lack of magnetosphere.

Personally if you want to propagate life by shooting containers of RNA at different extraterrestrial plants.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#219

Post by tick_tock_tick »

kittikitti wrote: post #77

People in Florida, when I tell them about my background working with data, often scoff and claim that the data can be changed to spread lies. They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus. This is prevalent across all of America, especially after DOGE, who encourage fraud so the data supports their political interests. I think the reliability problem is very bad…

If you start all your conversations with a blatant lie that is incredibly easy to prove as such why are you surprised people scoff at you?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#220

Post by nico_h »

culi wrote: post #62
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

The very plot of rainbow 6, a 1998 Tom Clancy novel, except the preppers are actually helping the catastrophes along.

And, if I’m not misremembering, of Silo as well.

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