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Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

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Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#211

Post by fragmede »

Conscat wrote: post #68
jmull wrote: post #64

> The central promise—that distributed digital fabrication would bring manufacturing back to America, that every city would have micro-factories, that 3D printing would decentralize production—simply didn’t materialize. I never heard that. It didn’t seem like 3D-printing ever showed sings of displacing existing ways of manufacturing at scale, did it? Units per hour and dollars per unit was never its strength. It was…

I was a kid at the time, but adults, magazines, and other children convinced me that 3D printing at home would likely replace a huge number of products. This included extremely optimistic speculation, like printers producing smart phones or houses. Then I dated a boy who used his 3D printer to substitute The Container Store at a higher cost with greater effort and lower quality, and that soured me on the concept.

Just like with vibecoding complains, have you tried the latest models (of 3d printers)? Specifically, Bambu's latest models make the printer a device to just use rather than the project itself. It's the Apple of 3d printing. Previously, you'd spend hours on calibrating and leveling nonsense. Latest models don't have this problem. Open the app on your phone, (doom)scroll until you find something, and just hit print from your phone. You can make it more complicated as desired, but it's not necessary to get something out of your printer.

Which apes vibecoding. ChatGPT 3.5 was laughably bad compared to codex 5.3, but if you're basing your opinion on 3.5's performance, your opinion's out of date.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#212

Post by zahlman »

jmull wrote: post #64

> The central promise—that distributed digital fabrication would bring manufacturing back to America, that every city would have micro-factories, that 3D printing would decentralize production—simply didn’t materialize. I never heard that. It didn’t seem like 3D-printing ever showed sings of displacing existing ways of manufacturing at scale, did it? Units per hour and dollars per unit was never its strength. It was…

> Vibe coding, on the other hand, is competing against hand coding, and for many use cases is considerably more efficient. It’s clearly replacing a lot of hand coding.

It seems like a lot of vibe coders are people who otherwise wouldn't be coding at all.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#213

Post by legulere »

rockskon wrote: post #61
margalabargala wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was something someone said in a comment here, years and years ago (pre AI), which has stuck with me. Paraphrased, "There's basically no business in the Western world that wouldn't come out ahead with a competent software engineer working for $15 an hour". Once agents, or now claws I guess, get another year of development under them they will be everywhere. People will have the novelty of "make me a website. Mak…

It's always a year® away. The amazing AI capability is "just around the corner"©. It will replace jobs soon™. How much longer do we have to put up with people saying this? It's been four years now.

Did you try the new models that came out in the end of last year? -- It's not just progress it's a breakthrough. /s

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#214

Post by gtowey »

zahlman wrote: post #212
jmull wrote: post #64

> The central promise—that distributed digital fabrication would bring manufacturing back to America, that every city would have micro-factories, that 3D printing would decentralize production—simply didn’t materialize. I never heard that. It didn’t seem like 3D-printing ever showed sings of displacing existing ways of manufacturing at scale, did it? Units per hour and dollars per unit was never its strength. It was…

> Vibe coding, on the other hand, is competing against hand coding, and for many use cases is considerably more efficient. It’s clearly replacing a lot of hand coding. It seems like a lot of vibe coders are people who otherwise wouldn't be coding at all.

Yeah, it's like saying that the amateur rocketry guys on youtube are going to replace NASA.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#215

Post by Thanemate »

tetha wrote: post #136
ramathornn wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> BTW, I think a lot of people were/are greatly overestimating the value of coding to business success. Fully agree - We already saw dev prices drop significantly when offshore dev shops spun up. I've had great, and also horrible experiences working with devs that could produce lines of code at a fraction of the price of any senior type dev. The higher paid engineers i've worked with are always worth their salary/hou…

> The higher paid engineers i've worked with are always worth their salary/hourly rate because of the way they approach problems and the solutions they come up with. I'm honestly just happy at the moment, because our two junior admins/platform engineers have made some really good points to me in preparation for their annual reviews. One now completed his own bigger terraform project, with the great praise of "That lo…

It makes sense for junior admins and junior platform engineers to leverage LLM's but I'd be highly skeptical for the future skillset of any junior software engineer who leverages LLM's right off the bat, unless we have already moved that goalpost.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#216

Post by LastTrain »

AntiDyatlov wrote: post #144
LastTrain wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m no fan of vibe coding but I usually find that people who use the term virtue signaling have none and hate those that do.

It's not virtous to make a show of one's virtue, virtue signaling is a baplutely a real thing, and a defect.

Sure, you are correct, but most times the accusation is a bullshit rhetorical move to not have to deal with an ugly truth.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#217

Post by tartoran »

The 3D printer hype bubble wasn't as big as the current AI bubble, I'd even characterize it by enthusiasm rather than call it a hype. However, 3D printers have come a long way, they've become commoditized and affordable. More and more people jump in all the time and the maker movement continues, the niche is growing at a steay rate. I'd be curious to see how this evolves in the next 5 to 10 years.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#218

Post by canxerian »

Participating in the maker movement achieved a few things: it signalled you had intellectual curiosity, that you were a man who could do things with his hands, and that you fixed things, rather than bought new - thereby increasing your green credentials.

Vibe coding does none of the above

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#219

Post by palmotea »

pradn wrote: post #162
jmull wrote: post #64

> The central promise—that distributed digital fabrication would bring manufacturing back to America, that every city would have micro-factories, that 3D printing would decentralize production—simply didn’t materialize. I never heard that. It didn’t seem like 3D-printing ever showed sings of displacing existing ways of manufacturing at scale, did it? Units per hour and dollars per unit was never its strength. It was…

One of the odd things people do with tech is taking someone else's random projections at face value? What does it mean to say "we were promised flying cars", or "every city would have micro-factories, that 3D printing would decentralize production"? The people creating these narratives may a) truly believe it and tried to make it a reality, but failed b) never believed it at all, but failed anyway, c) or be somewhere…

> What does it mean to say "we were promised flying cars"...

I don't know about the other things you mentioned, but I think you have this in the wrong category. "We were promised flying cars" is one half of a construction contrasting utopian promises/hype with dystopian (or at lest underwhelming) outcomes. I think the most common version is:

> They promised us flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.

Translation: tech promised awesome things that would make our life better, but instead we actually got was stuff like the toxicity of social media.

IMHO, this insight is one of the reasons there's so much negativity around AI. People have been around the block enough to have good reason to question tech hype, and they're expecting the next thing to turn out as badly as social media did.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#220

Post by evilfred »

jmull wrote: post #64

> The central promise—that distributed digital fabrication would bring manufacturing back to America, that every city would have micro-factories, that 3D printing would decentralize production—simply didn’t materialize. I never heard that. It didn’t seem like 3D-printing ever showed sings of displacing existing ways of manufacturing at scale, did it? Units per hour and dollars per unit was never its strength. It was…

vibe coding is only "more efficient" if you ignore the massive energy costs involved
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