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Russia's economy has entered the death zone

economist.com

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Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#211

Post by drysine »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #200
drysine wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Targeting dual-purpose infrastructure is not the same as targeting civilians. The infra can be repaired, people cannot be resurrected.

When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. Look at the recent terrorist attack in Berlin by far left extremists: blackout of a single district resulted in at least one known direct casualty. How many people will die of hypothermia or inability to get help being…

>When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror.

Not if that city's industry is contributing to the war effort.

>Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths.

You can say that about Western sanctions on Russia too. How many people have died because of a single MRI scanner or cancer drug that couldn't be bought by a Russian hospital?

Was it the "nuclear war without nukes" since the day the West imposed blanket sanctions on Russian economy?

Or did that "nuclear war without nukes" started in 2014-2015 when the Ukraine cut electricity and water supply to Crimea? "It has one goal - terror", right?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#212

Post by ericmay »

benterix wrote: post #201
pseudohadamard wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also possible to run an economy on empty for a long, long time provided there's a war on. Look at Germany, who literally ran the country on empty throughout all of WWII, books like Adam Tooze's "Wages of Destruction" cover this in great detail. There was a saying in the last few years, "enjoy the war, the peace will be terrible", and it was, because once you took the wartime tourniquet off all the toxins flooded…

> can you see anyone giving Putin's kleptocracy a few trillion dollars Unfortunately, if the leaks are true, they might actually be discussing that. "Fortunately" Putin is more bent on having the whole Donbas which Ukraine will not give so I don't believe this happens in the near future - which is bad for Russia as a country.

> Unfortunately, if the leaks are true, they might actually be discussing that.

Which specific leaks are discussing giving Putin a few trillion dollars? Who is the money coming from?

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#213

Post by pandaman »

benterix wrote: post #204
pandaman wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia had been under sanctions since 2014 and in January of 2015 its economy was already "in tatters", as reported by Obama in the State of the Union that year. Then, in March of 2022, great Joe Biden proclaimed that he has turned "ruble into rubble". I am sure the 20 packages of sanctions since then destroyed anything that left and it's really just vacuum in place of Russian economy now... Why end the lies if you c…

Any form of exaggeration is counter-productive. Russian economy is going slowly down, with the main cause being the war or Putin's need to fund it, and in a part also because of sanctions. But it can be low for decades, Russians will never go out on streets about it. But hopefully when Putin dies Russia returns to normal relations with the rest of the world and this bad epoch can end.

Saying the same thing without exaggerating doesn't make it true. Russian economy is growing, it's the rate of growth is going down. As for Russia returning to normal relations with the rest of the world: it's normal already. Russia cooperates with the majority of the world's population in China, India, Brazil etc.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#214

Post by benterix »

pandaman wrote: post #213
benterix wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any form of exaggeration is counter-productive. Russian economy is going slowly down, with the main cause being the war or Putin's need to fund it, and in a part also because of sanctions. But it can be low for decades, Russians will never go out on streets about it. But hopefully when Putin dies Russia returns to normal relations with the rest of the world and this bad epoch can end.

Saying the same thing without exaggerating doesn't make it true. Russian economy is growing, it's the rate of growth is going down. As for Russia returning to normal relations with the rest of the world: it's normal already. Russia cooperates with the majority of the world's population in China, India, Brazil etc.

Or, as Reshetnikov says, Russia's economy will continue to slow down in the first half of 2026. The prices will continue to increase, soldiers will continue to die in thousands. India announced they will not buy Russian oil, so the only major buyer will be China, driving the price even further down.

I have several friends in Russia, and I do wish them well, but it will be difficult to get back to normal as long as Putin is alive.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#215

Post by ivan_gammel »

drysine wrote: post #211
ivan_gammel wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. Look at the recent terrorist attack in Berlin by far left extremists: blackout of a single district resulted in at least one known direct casualty. How many people will die of hypothermia or inability to get help being…

>When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Not if that city's industry is contributing to the war effort. >Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. You can say that about Western sanctions on Russia too. How many people have died because of a single MRI scanner or cancer drug that couldn't be bought…

I really don’t understand your point. Are you questioning the choice of metaphor?

Ukraine cutting supply of electricity and water to Crimea did demonstrate the attitude of the Ukrainian government to people it considered once their citizen. It obviously wasn’t a part of the current chapter of the war.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#216

Post by ericmay »

bulbar wrote: post #203
benterix wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably the parent lives in one of the countries neighboring with Russia and unfortunately Russia is very unfriendly towards its neighbors, invading them when it wants, so you live in constant fear. From that perspective, this is just a variation of "I want to live in peace" expressed in an extreme way.

Many welcomed the Nazis when they invaded Eastern Europe because they relieved them from the Soviets. When literal Nazis are perceived as the better option you can imagine the alternative isn't very shiny.

Part of Russian propaganda over the years has been this view of the "clean Red Army". You see it all over the Internet. "American history books teach it wrong". It was the Soviets, they insist, that fought the good war and good victory over the Nazis and western powers only fought the frail, old German army in the west.

Reality on the ground is much different. While the Soviets did bear the brunt of the Nazi onslaught, what is often overlooked is their own culpability in the war (invading and splitting Poland in partnership with the Nazis, &c) and their evil annexations of peoples and countries that were nearby as part of their own power-grab. In other words, part of the reason they were in the war in the first place is because they joined the Nazis in effectively kicking it off, at least in Europe.

Soviet apologists also tend to forget that the United States and other anglo powers* simultaneously fought the Nazis in the west, took down the Japanese, invaded and liberated Italy, the Philippines, and more, fought and won in North Africa, and did all of this while providing the Soviets with the equipment they needed to stay in the war. Nevermind staging additional campaigns and operations, such as those in China to aid them against Japanese occupation.

* I don't intend to suggest that it was only the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada that fought the good fight because we undoubtedly received heroic contributions from numerous allies and friends during the war.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#217

Post by pandaman »

benterix wrote: post #214
pandaman wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saying the same thing without exaggerating doesn't make it true. Russian economy is growing, it's the rate of growth is going down. As for Russia returning to normal relations with the rest of the world: it's normal already. Russia cooperates with the majority of the world's population in China, India, Brazil etc.

Or, as Reshetnikov says, Russia's economy will continue to slow down in the first half of 2026. The prices will continue to increase, soldiers will continue to die in thousands. India announced they will not buy Russian oil, so the only major buyer will be China, driving the price even further down. I have several friends in Russia, and I do wish them well, but it will be difficult to get back to normal as long as Pu…

> India announced they will not buy Russian oil

I am not sure where did you get this, there is no such announcement publicly available.

> but it will be difficult to get back to normal as long as Putin is alive

There won't be a return to the 1990s-2000s subservient state, which you seem to be calling "normal". Whomever comes to replace Putin is going to be way more nationalist than the guy who spent more than half of his life in the USSR, being a Party member, and working in the field of internationalist politics.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#218

Post by Elixir6419 »

ericmay wrote: post #12
k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

> They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Yes and no. There's a minimum price they need to sell it, and somewhere in between they may not actually make enough between the minimum and sale price to actually fund their military. Nevermind the awesome job you guys are doing blowing up refineries and other industrial facilities. It'll be good when Europe stops importing Russian gas and steps up…

I am genuinely curious where is the historical example where sanctions worked? Korea? Cuba? Their regimes are fine, their people are less so.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#219

Post by O1111OOO »

zombot wrote: post #187
O1111OOO wrote: post #157

I wonder if the end of Russia as a world threat is something that benefits or hurts the US. The US runs a trillion dollar war machine, a multi-trillion dollar military industrial complex. It needs to feed it. It needs enemies. At the very least, it needs a constant threat to justify its existence (even if it has to create those threats). If Russia ceases to be a threat, does the US begin to hassle more countries? Doe…

> even if it has to create those threats The US is great at creating its own threats. In addition, marketing chops are top tier, and Hollywood is always glad to help.

Exactly. The War Machine may very well be too big to fail. It's connected to every facet of life as we know it... (today).

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#220

Post by drysine »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #215
drysine wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>When you knock out primary energy source in a large city instead of attacking military consumers, it has one goal - terror. Not if that city's industry is contributing to the war effort. >Most people suffering from it will be civilians. There will likely be deaths. You can say that about Western sanctions on Russia too. How many people have died because of a single MRI scanner or cancer drug that couldn't be bought…

I really don’t understand your point. Are you questioning the choice of metaphor? Ukraine cutting supply of electricity and water to Crimea did demonstrate the attitude of the Ukrainian government to people it considered once their citizen. It obviously wasn’t a part of the current chapter of the war.

>Are you questioning the choice of metaphor?

Yes, there is nothing like 'nuclear war without nukes' that is happening here. And I was trying to demonstrate that your logic seem to lead to conclusion that the 'nuclear war without nukes' started in 2014.

>to people it considered once their citizen

It is still considering them Ukrainian citizens.

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