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Why I don't think AGI is imminent

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Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#211

Post by deafpolygon »

hshdhdhj4444 wrote: post #204
hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

If AGI is already here actions would be so greatly accelerated humans wouldn’t have time to respond. Remember that weather balloon the US found a few years ago that for days was on the news as a Chinese spy balloon? Well whether it was a spy balloon or a weather balloon but the first hint of its existence could have triggered a nuclear war that could have already been the end of the world as we know it because AGI wi…

AGI is not a death sentence for humanity. It all depends on who leverages the tool. And in any case, AGI won’t be here for decades to come.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#212

Post by koakuma-chan »

hshdhdhj4444 wrote: post #204
hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

If AGI is already here actions would be so greatly accelerated humans wouldn’t have time to respond. Remember that weather balloon the US found a few years ago that for days was on the news as a Chinese spy balloon? Well whether it was a spy balloon or a weather balloon but the first hint of its existence could have triggered a nuclear war that could have already been the end of the world as we know it because AGI wi…

Sounds fun let's do it.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#213

Post by graemep »

materielle wrote: post #93
hackyhacky wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cultural changes take time. It took decades for the internet to move from nerdy curiosity to an essential part of everyone's life. The writing is on the wall. Even if there's no new advances in technology, the current state is upending jobs, education, media, etc

I really think corporations are overplaying their hand if they think they can transform society once again in the next 10 years. Rapid de industrialization followed by the internet and social media almost broke our society. Also, I don’t think people necessarily realize how close we were to the cliff in 2007. I think another transformation now would rip society apart rather than take us to the great beyond.

You are assuming that the change can only happen in the west.

The rest of the world has mostly been experiencing industrialisation, and was only indirectly affected by the great crash.

If there is a transformation in the rest of the world the west cannot escape it.

A lot of people in the west seem to have their heads in the sand, very much like when Japan and China tried to ignore the west.

China is the world's second biggest economy by nominal GDP, India the fourth. We have a globalised economy where everything is interlinked.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#214

Post by causal »

ryanSrich wrote: post #82
causal wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opus is the very best and I still throw away most of what it produces. If I did not carefully vet its work I would degrade my code bases so quickly. To accurately measure the value of AI you must include the negative in your sum.

I would and have done the same with Jr. devs. It's not an argument against it being AGI.

I'm countering the basis of your original claim; "there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6". This is simply not true.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#215

Post by timeattack »

znnajdla wrote: post #207
waterTanuki wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you working for 3x less the time compounding monthly ? Are you making 3x the money compounding monthly ? No? Then what's the point?

Yes and yes.

Okay, teach me how, then? I would also like to work 3× less and make 3× more.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#216

Post by causal »

ryanSrich wrote: post #83
loloquwowndueo wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Lolwut. I keep having to correct Claude at trivial code organization tasks. The code it writes is correct; it’s just ham-fisted and violates DRY in unholy ways. And I’m not even a great coder…

This is entirely solvable with skills, memory, context, and further prompting. All of which can be done in a way that's reliable and repeatable. You wouldn't expect a Jr. dev to be the best at keeping things dry either.

> there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6.

> You wouldn't expect a Jr. dev to be the best at keeping things dry either.

So a junior dev is better than almost all humans at everything?

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#217

Post by tsukurimashou »

hi_hi wrote: post #63

Here's a thought. Lets all arbitrarily agree AGI is here. I can't even be bothered discussing what the definition of AGI is. It's just here, accept it. Or vice versa. Now what....? Whats happening right now that should make me care that AGI is here (or not). Whats the magic thing thats happening with AGI that wasn't happening before? Right, so, not much has changed from 1-2 years ago that I can tell. The job markets…

AGI is a pipe dream and will never exist

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#218

Post by jobs_throwaway »

esafak wrote: post #78
hi_hi wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that was the intent of the comment, more that true AGI should be so useful and transformative that it unlocks enough value and efficiencies to boost GDP. Much like the Industrial Revolution or harnessing electricity, instead of a fancy chatbot.

Increased productivity is not equivalent to intelligence.

Not equivalent, but I do think a necessary byproduct of actual AGI is that it will be able to solve actual problems in the real world in a way that generates positive value on a large enough scale that it will show up in GDP

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#219

Post by vrighter »

NiloCK wrote: post #61

> The transformer architectures powering current LLMs are strictly feed-forward. This is true in a specific contextual sense (each token that an LLM produces is from a feed-forward pass). But untrue for more than a year with reasoning models, who feed their produced tokens back as inputs, and whose tuning effectively rewards it for doing this skillfully. Heck, it was untrue before that as well, any time an LLM respon…

That doesn't mean it is not strictly feedforward.

You run it again, with a bigger input. If it needs to do a loop to figure out what the next token should be (Ex. The result is: X), it will fail. Adding that token to the input and running it again is too late. It has already been emitted. The loop needs to occur while "thinking" not after you have already blurted out a result whether or not you have sufficient information to do so.

Re: Why I don't think AGI is imminent

#220

Post by loloquwowndueo »

ryanSrich wrote: post #83
loloquwowndueo wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6. Lolwut. I keep having to correct Claude at trivial code organization tasks. The code it writes is correct; it’s just ham-fisted and violates DRY in unholy ways. And I’m not even a great coder…

This is entirely solvable with skills, memory, context, and further prompting. All of which can be done in a way that's reliable and repeatable. You wouldn't expect a Jr. dev to be the best at keeping things dry either.

Yea the “you’re holding it wrong” argument. Never takes long to pop up.

> You wouldn't expect a Jr. dev to be the best at keeping things dry either.

Did you read the comment I replied to? The premise was

> there is almost nothing that a human is better at than Opus 4.6.

So which is it? Is Claude the junior dev “better at” most things than a human or not? Sorry, you can’t play your argument both ways.

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