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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

211–220 of 286 posts

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#211
post #137
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. Let's examine the Elektrek editor's feed, to understand how "impartial" he is about Tesla: https://x.com/FredLambert

Yup. Btw, do you happen to know, why electrek.co changed their tune in such a way? I was commenting on a similarly negative story by the same site, and said that they are always anti-Tesla. But then somebody pointed out that this wasn't always the case, that they were actually supportive, but then suddenly turned.

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#213
post #39
post #23

I am so tired of people defending Tesla. I’ve wrote off Tesla long time ago but what gets me are the people defending their tech. We all can go see the products and experience them. The tech needs to be at least 100x more error free vs humans. It cannot be on par with human error rate.

We tend to defend companies that push the frontiers of self-driving cars, because the technology has the potential to save lives and make life easier and cheaper for everyone. As engineers, we understand that the technology will go from unsafe, to par-with-humans, to safer-than-humans, but in order for it to get to the latter, it requires much validation and training in an intermediate state, with appropriate safegua…

> I wish others would set aside their partisan tribablism and recognise that Tesla has completely revolutionised the EV market and continues to make significant positive contributions to technology as a whole, all while opening all its patents and opening its Supercharger network to vehicles from competitors.

The problem is, they lost their drive. The competition has caught up - Mercedes Benz has an actually certified Level 4 Autonomous Driving system, on the high-class end pretty much every major manufacturer has something competitive with Tesla, the low budget end has something like the Dacia Spring starting at 12.000€, and the actual long-haul truck (i.e. not the fake "truck" aka Cybertruck) segment has (at least) Volvo, MAN and DAF making full-size trucks.

Where is the actual unique selling point that Tesla has now?

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#214

this is not good but the point is this can be improved much easier than improving human accidents rate. Both are very difficult problems, but one is certainly harder.

That's not really true. There are huge discrepancies in human human driver accident data across different countries, which shows that there are clear practices one could deploy to significantly reduce driving incidents - people just choose to not implement them.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#215
post #155
post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

Good analysis. Just over a month ago, Electrek was posted here claiming that Teslas with humans were crashing 10x more than with humans alone. That was based on a sample size of 9 crashes. In the month following that, they've added one more crash while also increasing the miles driven per month. The headline could just as easily be about the dramatic decline in their crash rate! Or perhaps the data is just too small…

I don't understand your claim.

Previous article: Tesla with human supervisor at wheel: 10x worse than human alone.

Current article: Tesla with remote supervisor: 3-9x worse than human alone.

Given the small sample sizes, this shows a clear trend: Tesla's autopilot stuff (or perhaps vehicle design) is causing a ton of accidents, regardless of whether it's being operated locally by customers or remotely by professionals.

I'd like to see similar studies broken down by vehicle manufacturer.

The ADAS in one of our cars is great, but occasionally beeps when it shouldn't.

The ADAS in our other car cannot be disabled and false positives every 10-20 miles. Every week or so it forces the vehicle out of lane (either left of double yellow line center, or into another car's lane).

If the data on crash rates for those two models were public, I guarantee the latter car would have been recalled by now.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#216
post #150
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical. If someone really wants a Tesla, my guess is that they'll rationalize Musk's actions or least compartmentalize them.

I think Facebook is even more universally thought of as a bad company, and everyone still engages there, too.

There are network effects to social networks that do not apply to choice of vehicle

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#217
post #155
post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

Good analysis. Just over a month ago, Electrek was posted here claiming that Teslas with humans were crashing 10x more than with humans alone. That was based on a sample size of 9 crashes. In the month following that, they've added one more crash while also increasing the miles driven per month. The headline could just as easily be about the dramatic decline in their crash rate! Or perhaps the data is just too small…

The 10x would be 9x if the methodology were the same. 9x->3x is going from reported accidents to inferred true accident rate, as the article points out.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of your arguments are expounded upon in the article itself, and their conclusions still hold, based on the publicly available data. The 3x figure in the title is based on a comparison of the Tesla reports with estimated average human driver miles without an incident, not based on police report data. The comparison with police-report data would lead to a 9x figure instead, which the article presents but quickly di…

I agree with most of your points and your conclusion, but to be fair OP was asserting that human drivers under-report incidents, which I believe. Super minor bumps where the drivers get out, determine there’s barely a scratch, and go on. Or solo low speed collisions with walls in garage or trees. I don’t think it invalidates the conclusion, but it seems like one fair point in an otherwise off-target defense.

Sure, but the 3x comparison is not based on reported incidents, it's based on estimates of incidents that occur. I think it's fair to assume such estimates are based on data about repairs and other such market stats, that don't necessarily depend on reporting. We also have no reason a priori to believe the Tesla reports include every single incident either, especially given their history from FSD incident disclosures.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#219
post #205
post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

I find it interesting the Lemonade insurance just began offering a 50% discount for Tesla with FSD. Insurance companies are known for analytics and don't survive if they use bad data. This points to your comment being correct.

Thats a completely different scenario than fully autonomous driving.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#220
post #155
post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

Good analysis. Just over a month ago, Electrek was posted here claiming that Teslas with humans were crashing 10x more than with humans alone. That was based on a sample size of 9 crashes. In the month following that, they've added one more crash while also increasing the miles driven per month. The headline could just as easily be about the dramatic decline in their crash rate! Or perhaps the data is just too small…

I don’t think statistics work that way. A study of all Teslas and all humans in Austin for 5 months is valid because Electrek ran a ridiculous “study”, and this headline could “just as easily” have presented the flawed Elektrek stork as a legit baseline?
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