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AI is a horse (2024)

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Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#211

Post by superjan »

aaronharnly wrote: post #162
simonw wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been calling LLMs "electric bicycles for the mind", inspired by that Jobs quote. - some bicycle purists consider electric bicycles to be "cheating" - you get less exercise from an electric bicycle - they can get you places really effectively! - if you don't know how to ride a bicycle an electric bicycle is going to quickly lead you to an accident

To keep torturing the metaphor, LLMs might be more like those electric unicycles (Onewheel, Inmotion, etc) – quite speedy, can get you places, less exercise, and also sometimes suddenly choke and send you flying facefirst into gravel. And some people see you whizzing by and think "oh cool", and others see you whizzing by and think "what a tool."

Maybe more like a fatbike for the mind: pretending to cycle with zero effort and exercise.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#212

Post by jpalepu33 »

This metaphor really captures the current state well. As someone building products with LLMs, the "you have to tell it where to turn" part resonates deeply.

I've found that the key is treating AI like a junior developer who's really fast but needs extremely clear instructions. The same way you'd never tell a junior dev "just build the feature" - you need to:

1. Break down the task into atomic steps 2. Provide explicit examples of expected output 3. Set up validation/testing for every response 4. Have fallback strategies when it inevitably goes off-road

The real productivity gains come when you build proper scaffolding around the "horse" - prompt templates, output validators, retry logic, human-in-the-loop for edge cases. Without that infrastructure, you're just hoping the horse stays on the path.

The "it eats a lot" point is also critical and often overlooked when people calculate ROI. API costs can spiral quickly if you're not careful about prompt engineering and caching strategies.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#213

Post by skapadia »

Eliezer wrote: post #65

"2024 AI was a horse". People really like to imagine that the last 6 months constitute their true observation of the new eternal state of the future.

Exactly. We're headed for a discontinuity, not an inflection point.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#215

Post by EGreg »

simonw wrote: post #74
throw310822 wrote: post #56

Famously Steve Jobs said that the (personal) computer is "like a bicycle for the mind". It's a great metaphor because- besides the idea of lightness and freedom it communicates- it also described the computer as multiplier of the human strength- the bicycle allows one to travel faster and with much less effort, it's true, but ultimately the source of its power is still entirely in the muscles of the cyclist- you don'…

I've been calling LLMs "electric bicycles for the mind", inspired by that Jobs quote. - some bicycle purists consider electric bicycles to be "cheating" - you get less exercise from an electric bicycle - they can get you places really effectively! - if you don't know how to ride a bicycle an electric bicycle is going to quickly lead you to an accident

okay -- how about motorcycles for the mind then? :)

most people don't know how to harness their full potential

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#216

Post by the_af »

dugidugout wrote: post #210
the_af wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm honestly not following your argument here. I'm also not convinced by comparisons between AI and things that aren't AI or even automated. > Will you be even more discouraged if I share that "table flipping" and "sleight of hand" have ruined many tabletop games? What does this have to do with AI or online games? You cannot do either of those in online games. You also cannot shove the other person aside, punch them…

We are likely on different footing as I quite enjoy games of all form. Here is my attempt to formalize my argument: Claim 1: Cheating is endemic to competition across all formats (physical or digital) Claim 2: Despite this, games survive and thrive because people value the competitive spirit itself Claim 3: The appreciation of play isn't destroyed by the existence of cheaters (even "cheaters" who simply surpass human…

I really appreciate your clarifications! I think I actually agree with you, and I lost track of my own argument in all of this.

I'm absolutely not contesting that online play is hugely popular.

I guess I'm trying to understand how widespread and serious the problem of cheaters using AI/computer cheats actually is [1]. Maybe the answer is "not worse than before"; I'm skeptical about this but I admit I have no data to back my skepticism.

[1] I know Counter Strike back in the day was sort of ruined because of cheaters. I know one person who worked on a major anticheat (well-known at the time, not sure today), which I think he tried to sell to Valve but they didn't go with his solution. Also amusingly, he was remote-friends with a Russian hacker who wrote many of the cheats, and they had a friendly rivalry. This is just an ancedote, I'm not sure that it has anything to do with the rest of my comment :D

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#217

Post by ivanstojic »

throw310822 wrote: post #56

Famously Steve Jobs said that the (personal) computer is "like a bicycle for the mind". It's a great metaphor because- besides the idea of lightness and freedom it communicates- it also described the computer as multiplier of the human strength- the bicycle allows one to travel faster and with much less effort, it's true, but ultimately the source of its power is still entirely in the muscles of the cyclist- you don'…

When tractors were invented, there was a notable reduction in human employment in agriculture in the USA. From a research paper (https://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/alolmstead/Recent_P...):

> The lower-bound estimate represents 18 percent of the total reduction in man-hours in U.S. agriculture between 1944 and 1959; the upper-bound estimate, 27 percent

I'm not seeing that with LLMs.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#218

Post by MattGrommes »

esafak wrote: post #202
MattGrommes wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a small correction, the founder of Segway is Dean Kamen who is still alive. It was the then-owner of the company who died.

It would have been cooler if this comment was by the founder :)

Oh boy do I wish I was nearly as cool as Dean Kamen. :)

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#219

Post by dugidugout »

the_af wrote: post #216
dugidugout wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are likely on different footing as I quite enjoy games of all form. Here is my attempt to formalize my argument: Claim 1: Cheating is endemic to competition across all formats (physical or digital) Claim 2: Despite this, games survive and thrive because people value the competitive spirit itself Claim 3: The appreciation of play isn't destroyed by the existence of cheaters (even "cheaters" who simply surpass human…

I really appreciate your clarifications! I think I actually agree with you, and I lost track of my own argument in all of this. I'm absolutely not contesting that online play is hugely popular. I guess I'm trying to understand how widespread and serious the problem of cheaters using AI/computer cheats actually is [1]. Maybe the answer is "not worse than before"; I'm skeptical about this but I admit I have no data to…

Ah! I confused your intent myself!

> I guess I'm trying to understand how widespread and serious the problem of cheaters using AI/computer cheats actually is.

It is undoubtedly more widespread.

> I know Counter Strike back in the day was sort of ruined because of cheaters.

There is truth in this, but this only affected more casual ladder play. Since early CSGO (maybe before as well? I am not of source age) there has been FACEiT and other leagues which asserts strict kernel-level anti-cheat and other heuristics on the players. I do agree this cat and mouse game is on the side of the cat and the best competition is curated in tightly controlled (often gate-kept) spaces.

It is interesting that "better" cheating is often done through mimicking humans closer though, which does have an interesting silver lining. We still very much value a "smart" or "strategic" AI in match-based solitary genres, why not carry this over to FPS or the like. Little Timmy gets to train against an AI expressing "competitive player" without needing to break through the extreme barriers to actually play against someone of this caliber. Quite exciting when put this way.

If better cheats are being forced to actually play the game, I'm not sure the threat is very existential to gaming itself. This is much less abrasive than getting no-scoped in spawn at round start in a CS match.

Re: AI is a horse (2024)

#220

Post by doener »

> It is way slower and less reliable than a train but can go more places

I‘m not able to follow. So AI is a horse in this metaphor, what is a train then? Still a train?

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