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Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

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Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#211

Post by bdangubic »

legitster wrote: post #191
WheatMillington wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6 months ago you could accurately say there's "no precedent for them to continue rising". You may be saying the same thing 6 months from now.

It could be true that the market can continue to grow well past 15% above fundamentals for the indefinite future. But the more it goes up, the more improbable it becomes. If you've flipped heads three times in a row, you're right that I would look foolish saying the next one can't be heads. But at the same time you cannot keep flipping heads forever.

true on all accounts but comment like OP made is ridiculous. to say “for sure XYZ will happen to the market by this date” is childish/funny/insane. to say “eventually” there will be a correction is similar cause of course there will be. so all this talk about bubble and other shit is just nonsense all around

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#212

Post by mrandish »

I know little about the details puts/shorts etc but just curious... does Burry doing media about his position (after he's got it), potentially help increase the odds of his bet working in a self-fulfilling way or is it neutral for his bet.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#213

Post by kristianp »

prodigycorp wrote: post #4

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

> Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair

I've googled "becky with the good hair" [1] and I still have no idea what that sentence means.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorry_(Beyonc%C3%A9_song)

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#214

Post by stephenitis »

brokencode wrote: post #185
dviney wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well his 10 year performance is 255%. Which does not include his bet in 2005-08. Buffett has only done 154% in that time. So rumours of his demise are greatly exaggerated.

That doesn’t change the fact that he keeps making these doomsday predictions that don’t come true. Also, his returns aren’t really impressive compared to VTI, which has had an annualized return of 14.04% over the past 10 years according to Vanguard. That works out to 372% total returns in that period. It’s easy to make money when even the broadest US index fund is up by that much.

That could be part of his strategy no?

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#215

Post by UltraSane »

willis936 wrote: post #206
UltraSane wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"People are opposed to Israel due to its ongoing mass murder (and rape) campaign." But the same people tend to completely ignore or outright support Hamas doing the exact same thing.

Because one is actively sponsored by their own nation while the other is not. Their tax dollars are being spent for those atrocities. Or is that not something people should quibble about?

Again, thanks for proving my point.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#216

Post by hyperadvanced »

Gud wrote: post #123
IAmBroom wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions, so there's that.

Has he or are you just repeating a funny joke?

He has. He’s notably been burned a few times, one of the worst of which was 2021 TSLA. Iirc he was early but not wrong, with the 2022 collapse of all things ARKK related crashing and burning.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#217

Post by themafia »

astrange wrote: post #112
themafia wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions. Is there someone with a better record then?

Recessions can be avoided if you know about them ahead of time, so if you ever successfully predicted one your central bank isn't good enough.

Is there a way to predict when central banks aren't "good enough" then?

Point is, for a 100% positive case rate, I have to tolerate a 22% false positive rate. What exactly is the complaint here? Was this line of logic meant to make people who make these predictions look stupid or foolish somehow? To me, it mostly fails to.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#218

Post by prodigycorp »

kristianp wrote: post #213
prodigycorp wrote: post #4

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

> Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair I've googled "becky with the good hair" [1] and I still have no idea what that sentence means. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sorry_(Beyonc%C3%A9_song)

It goes a lot better if you don't think about it. But this is HN, I'll explain the logic.

I split Becky into two: IBM is Vanilla Becky. Palantir is Becky with the good hair. But don't get it twisted, they are both Becky. Don't fall for Becky.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#219

Post by JKCalhoun »

toss1 wrote: post #67
JKCalhoun wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask an LLM how to short specific stocks.

Um, please do not suggest people ask that. If you are having to ask an LLM how to do it, I strongly suggest NOT starting with shorting. Ask about Put options, which is what Burry is doing here — not even Burry is shorting for this situation. I'm no expert trader, but the potential losses for shorting are unlimited. You borrow X shares of a stock, and will have to repay your loan in that stock, whatever it costs. If t…

Thanks. Too late to either edit or delete my own comment.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#220

Post by ethbr1 »

worik wrote: post #106
ericmcer wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will it be another "correction" where it pulls back ~10% before going up another 15%? The powers that be have too much invested in the market continuing to move up, you are basically betting that Trump, a bunch of billionaires and the FED are going to let the market crash to curb inflation and income inequality. That feels like a bad bet to me.

> going to let the market crash By their very nature the markets can overwhelm any desire to "[not] let the market crash]"

Yes and no. Compounding market effects can. First order effects? There's a lot of firepower to blunt those.

Especially when the person in the White House is scared about losing the midterms.

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