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Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

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Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#211

Post by JohnMakin »

serf wrote: post #161
JohnMakin wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“just play better poker” like that’s an easy thing to do in a game of chance and incomplete information, with variance having years or decades long tails. not to mention it’s an unsolved game, so “better” poker doesn’t even really have a set definition and depends on tons of variables. and they literally knew what hole cards were coming - that’s vastly more of an edge than playing “better poker” than someone. Besides…

>“just play better poker” like that’s an easy thing to do in a game of chance and incomplete information you just need to beat the table, you don't need to become an over-average pro. that decades long tail you mentioned is for pros chasing profitability in tournaments -- it's a much shorter tail when you're playing fish in setups. being better at poker than the guy at the table who is good at making money isn't a bi…

You're illustrating why the phrase I am nitpicking is silly, and why poker is somehow still profitable even after the boom of 20+ years ago. What is the definition of "beating the table?" Is it winning? Because I promise you, that's a poor definition. You can be playing perfectly great poker and get slaughtered, you can play terrible poker and win. Look at the career of Phil Helmuth, for instance (joke, I'm joking). Playing live poker, you're very unlikely to get a large enough sample size to have a close to 100% confidence you're actually beating the game. You're even less likely to get a large enough sample from a single table/group of players to know either. And like I said up thread - what is "good" or "optimal" or the highest expected value play can change drastically depending on information. Poker is a game of incomplete information, and you can conjure tons of scenarios where folding something like a pair of Aces is correct before the flop, even though many people who have a shallow understanding of the game or haven't studied it deeply would say you should never do that (for instance, in a double or nothing tournament, where half the table cashes and half doesn't, folding AA with a large chip lead to an all in from a certain stack size is the correct play and happens surprisingly often).

Or like, say you're against a "fish" that goes all in preflop with exactly J7 offsuit and nothing else, no matter how big his stack is, because that's their lucky hand or something. You're not playing as profitably as possible if you lack that knowledge, and if you somehow have that knowledge, there are tons of hands you play there that you normally never would and would appear to others without that information as playing "bad."

It's a deeply complex game people try to trivialize. I've been studying for about 20 years and every year that goes by I think I know less than I did the year before. And I'm just talking no limit hold'em right now - there are tons of variants that all have their own areas of study, and that's not even to get into weird live game areas of theory like tells and stuff (which is not as important as people tend to think).

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#212

Post by alexpotato »

QuadmasterXLII wrote: post #25

This scheme doesn’t really make sense. Once you’ve convinced a wealthy person to play at your underground poker table, you’ve already won - just play better poker than them, ultra wealthy fish don’t have time to learn to play perfect poker and you do. Trying to extract slightly more money per hand via x ray tables etc kills the golden goose and doesn’t even necessarily increase total winnings, since it makes you win…

> Once you’ve convinced a wealthy person to play at your underground poker table, you’ve already won - just play better poker than them,

This is why in the book Molly's Game [0], the author mentions explicitly that she didn't want professionals in her game.

This b/c her game was seen as a game between "regular/amateur" players who just happened to be famous and/or have a lot of money. This was also DESPITE poker professionals both asking her to play AND offering to give her a stake of their winnings.

Granted, certain players (e.g. Tobey Maguire) were MUCH better than the other players but it seems that didn't matter as long as poker wasn't their primary source of income.

0 - https://amzn.to/4o05BFi

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#213

Post by Aurornis »

mattmaroon wrote: post #89
ecshafer wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The FBI is going to take time building up the case, flipping people, getting recordings, and trying to get as many people involved to not just stop the games but hopefully take down the entire crime families involved. LA Poker pros will start talking as soon as they suspect something fishy.

They almost certainly already have done much of this if they’re going public now. What makes it to the media in the beginning is only ever the proverbial tip of the iceberg.

> They almost certainly already have done much of this if they’re going public now.

Normally I'd agree, but this administration is known for pushing to release public distractions whenever they can.

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#214

Post by robocat »

binarymax wrote: post #58
JohnMakin wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“just play better poker” like that’s an easy thing to do in a game of chance and incomplete information, with variance having years or decades long tails. not to mention it’s an unsolved game, so “better” poker doesn’t even really have a set definition and depends on tons of variables. and they literally knew what hole cards were coming - that’s vastly more of an edge than playing “better poker” than someone. Besides…

You can spend the time to learn the odds, and play the odds. Most people don't have even that basic skill.

You are ignoring why people play the game: reading people and avoiding being read (lies, misdirection). I would predict your job is technical rather than people oriented. There's plenty of other card games where learning the odds matters, but poker has a bit more depth.

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#215

Post by matwood »

everdrive wrote: post #75

This is probably a very HN comment, but I cannot imagine why people actually like gambling and poker: - high likelihood you lose money - the point of the game is to lie to friends and strangers - you're stuck sitting at a table and following rules for hours - the only victory condition is that you take money from other people

I don't consider poker gambling (that would be something like craps which I also find fun). It is a skill you can build and not necessarily lose money. I also don't consider it lying when everyone at the table agrees to how the game is played. Playing 'good' poker requires folding a lot and it can get boring sitting at a table.

Poker is a lot like business distilled down. The player is managing resources and deciding where to use them while dealing with incomplete information.

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#216

Post by dghlsakjg »

asdfasvea wrote: post #190
jimbokun wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the increased risk of cheating more? Once you're cheating and colluding you are in danger of going to jail, and it's not clear that more cheating makes it more likely to be caught.

How could more cheating avenues not equal a more likelihood of being caught? Car analogy--I never had to take my 1976 Olds Cutlass in because the key fob got out of sync or because the touchscreen got fried or the electronic power steering module shorted or... or .. or More points of failure = more failure.

Is a 76 olds the car to use to make a point about reliability?

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#217

Post by adolph »

everdrive wrote: post #75

This is probably a very HN comment, but I cannot imagine why people actually like gambling and poker: - high likelihood you lose money - the point of the game is to lie to friends and strangers - you're stuck sitting at a table and following rules for hours - the only victory condition is that you take money from other people

  > - high likelihood you lose money
Loss aversion is a cognitive bias that has to be worked on like any other. Poker might be a good method to address it.

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#218

Post by consp »

runjake wrote: post #62
consp wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like near-IR of some sort but media calls everything x-ray since it's what people know. X-Rays would go through cards anyway. But you'd get nice pictures of peoples hands though, and cataracts after a night of play. edit: now I think of it: if the cloth is thin enough you don't even need near-IR. Old fashioned IR camera's (those without any fancy filter) from the '00 showed though some relatively thin opaque sy…

From the photos it looks like regular IR photos to me. Also note you don’t see the bones in the hands at the top of the photo.

Yes, my conclusion as well. Especially with a bright enough IR source. The bones reference was as a bit sarcastic reference if they'd used x-rays but since nobody got seriously ill that did not happen..

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#219

Post by mschuster91 »

skeeter2020 wrote: post #201
jimbokun wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What business would you take your organized crime organization into for maximal returns? Just stick everything in the S&P 500?

I'd get dirt on the sitting president, then leverage him to make decisions with obvious market implication. Examples: give me a day's notice that the federal government is going to invest in a dinky mining company, or tariffs are coming on foreign electronics... except next week are exempt. You gotta believe people on the inside are making fortunes as the markets continue to make big swings up & down.

> You gotta believe people on the inside are making fortunes as the markets continue to make big swings up & down.

Yeah but that's friends of the emperor, not organized crime (although granted, the distinction between these two groups is getting smaller by the day).

Organized crime? That money is literally everywhere. Restaurants, real estate, cars, the stock markets... the only place you'll rarely spot it is, ironically, gambling, way too many chances of getting caught on a paper trail. A lot of it is also invested in art pieces stored in one tax haven/freeport or another, really easy to launder money or evade taxes.

Re: Poker fraud used X-ray tables, high-tech glasses and NBA players

#220

Post by captn3m0 »

jm4 wrote: post #150
everdrive wrote: post #75

This is probably a very HN comment, but I cannot imagine why people actually like gambling and poker: - high likelihood you lose money - the point of the game is to lie to friends and strangers - you're stuck sitting at a table and following rules for hours - the only victory condition is that you take money from other people

Poker is a great game. There are so many aspects to it where you can go down a rabbit hole of strategy to improve your game - there's math, making decisions with incomplete information, deduction, reading people, all kinds of non-verbal communication, etc. Although there's chance involved, it is undoubtedly a skill game. The gambling is one of the unfortunate aspects, but it just doesn't play the same without some mo…

There's also Match Poker, which makes a Team Sport out of Poker and removes all the gambling and chance - https://matchpokerfed.org/match-poker/
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