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OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

the-decoder.com

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Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#211

Post by ben_w »

SJC_Hacker wrote: post #92
techblueberry wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think my theory into contagion would be that There’s been lots of talk about these companies starting to rack up debt, and I think AI is so tied into the US GDP that things like - If the stock market crashes, there’s lots of talk about how wealth and debt are interlinked. Could the crash be general enough to start calls on debt backed by stocks. My recollection in 2008 was that we didn’t learn about how bad it was…

> Combine this with the fact that AI is like what - 30% of the US economy? Magnificent 7 are 60%? Nowhere close. US GDP is like $30 trillion. Open AI revenue is ~$4 billion. All the other AI companies revenue might amount to $10 billion at most, and that is being generous. $10 billion/ $30 trillaion is not even 1%. You are forgetting all those "boring" sectors that form the basis of economies like agriculture and ene…

Small quibble, doesn't challenge your overall point, but as I understand it their revenue is somewhat higher than you say.

The Open AI revenue was ~$4 billion for the first half of the year; Anthropic recently reported a rate (which isn't total revenue, I know) equivalent to about $10 billion/year; NVIDIA's sales are supposed to be up 78% this quarter due to AI sales, reaching $39.33 billion, so plausibly ($39.33/1.78)*0.78 ~= $17 billion from AI in that quarter (rate, again yes I know, of $68 billion/year). So I can believe AI is order-of $100 billion/year economically… to US businesses with customers almost everywhere important except possibly China.

But just to re-iterate, this doesn't change your point. Even 100 B / 30 T is only one third of a percent.

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#212

Post by jibal »

gpjt wrote: post #68

To be fair to the OpenAI team, if read in context the situation is at worst ambiguous. The deleted tweet that the article is about said "GPT-5 just found solutions to 10 (!) previously unsolved Erdös problems, and made progress on 11 others. These have all been open for decades." If it had been posted stand-alone then I would certainly agree that it was misleading, but it was not. It was a quote-tweet of this: https:…

That's being disingenuous, not fair.

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#213

Post by Timsky »

signatoremo wrote: post #207
Timsky wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I meant that it obviously fits your needs but not mine

> No, it does not. It only produces a highly convincing counterfeit. How could you say that with high confidence when you admitted it might be useful for others?

Because this is precisely what the word counterfeit means, an imitation that deceives you. The functionality of counterfeit can be from 0% to 100%, depending on your luck. If you accidentally bought a fake iPhone, it can still make calls. Chat output is something that looks like a literature review, some collection of summaries of relevant papers. But the problem is that a review is not just text compression. It is also about rejecting low-quality research, considering the historical context, identifying contradictions, etc. No machine can do that analysis for you, yet. I have quite a confidence in that.

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#215

Post by malfist »

throwaway-0001 wrote: post #186
derektank wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The harms associated with someone creating a deep fake of you are real but they're pretty insignificant compared to the harms associated with being sex trafficked or being exposed to an STI or being unable to find traditional employment after working in the industry.

You couldn’t just photoshop that before ai came out? What if you get a model that is 99% similar to your “target” - what we do with that?

Sure, someone skilled could spend an hour or so photoshoping someone nude. But any teenager can do that to a classmate in 30 seconds with ai

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#216

Post by cindyllm »

throwaway-0001 wrote: post #186
derektank wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The harms associated with someone creating a deep fake of you are real but they're pretty insignificant compared to the harms associated with being sex trafficked or being exposed to an STI or being unable to find traditional employment after working in the industry.

You couldn’t just photoshop that before ai came out? What if you get a model that is 99% similar to your “target” - what we do with that?

[dead]

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#217

Post by rhetocj23 »

georgemcbay wrote: post #143
andrewflnr wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, the exact stuff Google used to be good at.

Pretty much, though Google got bad at these things well before LLMs really came on to the scene, and we can all debate which project manager was responsible and the month and year things took a downward turn, but the IMO obvious catalyst was that "Barely Good Enough" search creates more ad impressions, especially when virtually all of the bad results you are serving are links to sites that also serve Google managed a…

Apple is the only firm that seems to do a good job in preventing itself from falling prey to what leads to the demise of every corp in history.

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#218

Post by rhetocj23 »

dawnerd wrote: post #15
kif wrote: post #9

This honestly doesn’t surprise me. We have reached a point where it’s becoming clearer and clearer that AGI is nowhere to be seen, whereas advances in LLM ability to ‘reason’ have slowed down to (almost?) a halt.

But if you ask an AI hype person they’ll say we’re almost there we just need a bit more gigawatts of compute!

I hate to say this but I think the LLM story is going to go the same way as Teslas stock - everyone knows its completely detached from fundamentals and driven by momentum and hype but nobody wants to do the right thing.

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#219

Post by rhetocj23 »

the_duke wrote: post #31
Topfi wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the dot com bubble a far better proxy? Notably, todays spending is both higher and more concentrated in a few companies that a large part of the population has exposure to (most dot com companies weren't publicly traded and far smaller vs MSFT, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, NVDA making up most investment today) by way of pension funds, ETFs, etc.?

Sure, but all of the above have solid businesses that rake in lots of money, revenue based on AI is a small percentage for them. An AI bust would take the stock price down a good deal, but the stock gains have been relatively moderate. Year on year: Microsoft +14%, Meta +24%, Google +40, Oracle +60%, ... And a notable chunk of those gains have indirectly come from the dollar devaluing. Nvidia would be hit much harder…

The problem is do you know much 14% etc is? We are talking about valuations in the trillions my friend!

Re: OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

#220

Post by kenjackson »

“Mathematician Thomas Bloom, who runs erdosproblems.com, pushed back right away. He called the statements "a dramatic misinterpretation," clarifying that "open" on his site just means he personally doesn't know the solution - not that the problem is actually unsolved.”

What mathematician uses this as the definition for “open”? I don’t go around saying that most problems in this textbook are open questions, just because I don’t know how to do them.

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