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OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

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Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#211

Post by yahoozoo »

athrowaway3z wrote: post #130
Sam6late wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is How Larry Elisson beat Musk for a short while although Oracle was struggling.' The deals among Oracle, Nvidia, and OpenAI have raised concerns about their circular and potentially risky nature. Oracle is reportedly spending tens of billions on Nvidia's advanced chips, Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI uses Oracle's cloud infrastructure through Microsoft's Azure, creating a closed…

It's worth noting Elisson is 2 years older than Trump. What's he going to do with all that money, and what does he care for the risk it's bad or shady? Worst case, he got to be #1 for a bit for a few dozen billion, best case he's hoping AGI will extend his life before he croaks.

Give it all to the IDF.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#212

Post by random9749832 »

We are fully in the grifting stage of society. No one wants to work anymore and everyone wants to invest in imaginary outcomes (cryptocoins (most of which no one uses with little to no real use cases) and now AGI (science fiction)). Once the stock market crashes within an already low trust brittle society I imagine that there will be catastrophic outcomes. Maybe I am just a doomer who needs to touch grass but maybe not.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#213

Post by ubermonkey »

stared wrote: post #195

There is a beautiful scene from "The Wolf of Wall Street", in which Matthew McConaughey outshines Leonardo DiCaprio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4iBdIq0aaY I think it serves as a good commentary.

I finally got around to watching that a year or two ago. That scene is among several that are just remarkable bits of work, but somehow the whole film itself felt like a slog.

I feel like that's the problem generally with late career Scorsese. The last of his films that felt consistently interesting and free of flab was, to me, Casino, though he got close for me with The Aviator and The Departed.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#214

Post by throw-10-8 »

mittermayr wrote: post #202
throw-10-8 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely withdrew from the US market last Nov 5th. It's plainly obvious where all of this is going.

well, this means you've missed out on everything since then, wouldn't a simple stop order have been a reasonable alternative on this?

the US dollar is down over 10% since they elected a fascist, no stop order for that.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#215

Post by throw-10-8 »

skatingaway wrote: post #181
throw-10-8 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely withdrew from the US market last Nov 5th. It's plainly obvious where all of this is going.

There are other companies than the magnificent 7. Other boring companies with boring dividends and solid earnings that have nothing to do with tech. Ulta. Pepsi. Chevron. But you sound pretty smart so I’m sure you had a good reason to invest in non us markets.

I'm a non-american and I don't trust their government as a steward any longer.

I've diversified into international markets that are more resistant to the whims of a dictator and his feeble attempts at monetary policy.

Also any gains in dollar denominated assets should include the >10% haircut the USD has taken since the fascist coup.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#216

Post by azan_ »

HelloNurse wrote: post #197
passwordoops wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring

Damage is unavoidable, we can only hope that it happens to someone deserving. Innocent individuals and pension funds still have time to retreat; if they don't it will be their fault.

We are moving towards gerontocracy - if pension funds will have large losses it’s very likely that young, working age people will be taxed extra heavily to keep the QOL of pensioners.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#217

Post by Ianjit »

noosphr wrote: post #192
Ianjit wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I notice that when I ask ChatGPT a question the answers I get back seem more verbose than they were a year ago. Where a 1-2 line response would be sufficient GPT delivers a sprawling essay. Overall the value of the answer has probably gone down, but tokens are up.

You can quite easily ask it to summarize the result in a sentence or paragraph. LLMs have no other way to compute than write text and the more text they write the more compute they do. You only care about the final output.

I do. It typically goes on to write a preamble about why it gave a long answer before finally providing a summary. Token stuffing.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#218

Post by azan_ »

mnky9800n wrote: post #198
passwordoops wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring

Yes but this is by design. Wealthy people want bubbles, when they pop, you can gobble up all the value at all time lows. Then you hold until you don't feel like it anymore as the market goes back to growing. You see this as how private equity has bought up real estate across the USA to turn into rentals after 2008, for example.

Aren’t extremely wealthy people that wealthy due to the valuation of their stock? IIRC generally the higher the networth, the higher share is kept in stocks

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#219

Post by tim333 »

tshaddox wrote: post #69
gruez wrote: post #15

For an interesting interpretation of the recent AMD-OpenAI deal, see Matt Levine's column from a few days ago: > OpenAI: We would like six gigawatts worth of your chips to do inference. > AMD: Terrific. That will be $78 billion. How would you like to pay? > OpenAI: Well, we were thinking that we would announce the deal, and that would add $78 billion to the value of your company, which should cover it. > AMD: … > Ope…

Does he explain why the valuation of the company would go up by $78 billion on the public news that AMD agreed to give $78 billion of goods to OpenAI for free?

It's not really for free. OpenAI buys goods for $78 bn and maybe gets that back in stock options or maybe not depending on how the stock does.

As to the stock going up - we have a bit of a stock bubble thing going on.

Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

#220

Post by mixedbit »

Here is money printing scheme that looks to be at work:

Initial situation:

* Big corp M has X$ in cash where X is huge

Big Corp M invest X$ in AI startup O, with a provision that O needs to use most of the money to buy cloud infrastructure from M to power AI models.

End situation:

* Big corp M has X$ wort of shares in O, the value of which will rapidly grow

* Big corp M cloud division has ~X$ in extra revenue

The deal automatically turns X$ into ~2X$ in books. Rinse and repeat with next round deals and next AI startups. The big corps are reporting increased cloud divisions revenue from AI spent, but it is their own investment money flowing back to cloud divisions.

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