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Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

thealgorithmicbridge.com

211–220 of 243 posts

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#211
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel I could argue the counterpoint. Hijacking the pathways of the human brain that leads to addictive behaviour has the potential to utterly ruins peoples lives. And so talking about it, if you have good intentions, seems like a thing anyone with the heart in the right place would. Take VEO3 and YouTube integration as an example: Google made VEO3 and YouTube has shorts and are aware of the data that shows addictiv…

The fact is that not all people exhibit the described behavior. So the actions of corporations cannot be considered unambiguously bad. For example, it will help to cleanse the human gene pool of genes responsible for addictive behavior.

Counterpoint: eugenics are bad.

You are saying suffering is allowable/good because eventually different people won't be able to suffer that way. That is an unethical position to hold.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#212

I love how much the proponents is this tech are starting to sound like the opponents. What I can't figure out is why this author thinks it's good if these companies do invent a real AGI...

""" I’m basically calling the AI industry dishonest, but I want to qualify by saying they are unnecessarily dishonest. Because they don’t need to be! They should just not make abstract claims about how much the world will change due to AI in no time, and they will be fine. They undermine the real effort they put into their work—which is genuine! Charitably, they may not even be dishonest at all, but carelessly unintr…

"Carelessly unintrospective" becomes dishonest when you allow other people to rely on your words. Carelessly unintrospective is a tolerable interpersonal position, it is a nearly fraudulent business position.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A sufficiently good simulation of understanding is functionally equivalent to understanding. At that point, the question of whether the model really does understand is pointless. We might as well argue about whether humans understand.

> A sufficiently good simulation of understanding is functionally equivalent to understanding. This is just a thing to say that has no substantial meaning. - What is "sufficiently" mean? - What is functionally equivalent? - and what is even understanding? All just vague hand waving We're not philosophizing here, we're talking about practical results and clearly, in the current context, it does not deliver in that are…

>We're not philosophizing here, we're talking about practical results and clearly, in the current context, it does not deliver in that area.

Except it clearly does, in a lot of areas. You can't take a 'practical results trump all' stance and come out of it saying LLMs understand nothing. They understand a lot of things just fine.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can get use out of a hammer without understanding how the strong force works. You can get use out of an LLM without understanding how every node works.

Hammer is not a perfect analogy because of how simple it is, but sure let's go with it. Imagine that occasionally when getting in contact with the nail it shatters to bits, or goes through the nail as it were liquid, or blows up, or does something else completely unexpected. Wouldn't you want to fix it? And sure, it might require deep understanding of the nature of the materials and forces involved. That's what I'd d…

A better analogy might be something like medicine. There are many drugs prescribed that are known to help with certain conditions, but their mechanism of action is not known. While there may be research trying to uncover those mechanisms, that doesn't stop or slow down rolling out of the medicine for use. Research goes at its own pace, and very often cannot be sped up by throwing money at it, while the market dictates adoption. I see the same with LLMs. I'm sure this has attracted the attention of more researchers than anything else in this field, but I would expect any progress to be relatively slow.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#215
post #8

Observe what the AI companies are doing, not what they are saying. If they would expect to achieve AGI soon, their behaviour would be completely different. Why bother developing chatbots or doing sales, when you will be operating AGI in a few short years? Surely, all resources should go towards that goal, as it is supposed to usher the humanity into a new prosperous age (somehow).

> Why bother developing chatbots Maybe it is the reverse? It is not them offering a product, it is the users offering their interaction data. Data which might be harvested for further training of the real deal, which is not the product. Think about it: They (companies like OpenAI) have created a broad and diverse user base which without a second thought feeds them with up-to-date info about everything happening in th…

It's not about achieving AGI as a final product, it's about building a perpetual learning machine fueled by real-time human interaction. I call it the human-AI experience flywheel.

People bring problems to the LLM, the LLM produces some text, people use it and later return to iterate. This iteration functions as a feedback for earlier responses from the LLM. If you judge an AI response by the next 20 rounds of interaction or more you can gauge if it was useful or not. They can create RLHF data this way, using hindsight or extra context from other related conversations of the same user on the same topic. That works because users try the LLM ideas in reality and bring outcome results back to the model, or they simply recall from their personal experience if that approach would work or not. The system isn't just built to be right; it's built to be correctable by the user base, at scale.

OpenAI has 500M users, if they generate 1000 tokens/user/day that means 0.5T interactive tokens/day. The chat logs dwarf the original training set in size and are very diverse, targeted to our interests, and mixed with feedback. They are also "on policy" for the LLM, meaning they contain corrections to mistakes the LLM made, not generic information like web scrape.

You're right that LLMs eventually might not even need to crawl the web, they have the whole society dump data into their open mouths. That did not happen with web search engines, only social networks did that in the past. But social networks are filled with our cultural wars and self conscious posing, while the chat room is an environment where we don't need to signal our group alignment.

Web scraping gives you humanity's external productions - what we chose to publish. But conversational logs capture our thinking process, our mistakes, our iterative refinements. Google learned what we wanted to find, but LLMs learn how we think through problems.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why bother developing chatbots Maybe it is the reverse? It is not them offering a product, it is the users offering their interaction data. Data which might be harvested for further training of the real deal, which is not the product. Think about it: They (companies like OpenAI) have created a broad and diverse user base which without a second thought feeds them with up-to-date info about everything happening in th…

It's not about achieving AGI as a final product, it's about building a perpetual learning machine fueled by real-time human interaction. I call it the human-AI experience flywheel. People bring problems to the LLM, the LLM produces some text, people use it and later return to iterate. This iteration functions as a feedback for earlier responses from the LLM. If you judge an AI response by the next 20 rounds of intera…

I see where you’re coming from, but I think teasing out something that looks like a clear objective function that generalizes to improved intelligence from llm interaction logs is going to be hellishly difficult. Consider, that most of the best llm pre training comes from being very very judicious with the training data, selecting the right corpus of llm interaction logs and then defining an objective function that correctly models…? Being helpful? From that sounds far harder than just working from scratch with rlhf.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the Catch me if you Can movie, Leo diCaprio’s character wears a surgeon’s gown and confidently says “I concur”. What I’m hearing here is that you are willing to get your surgery done by him and not by one of the real doctors - if he is capable of pronouncing enough doctor-sounding phrases.

Leo diCaprio's character says nothing of substance in that scene. If you ask an LLM a question about most subjects, it will give you a highly intelligent, substantive answer.

it gives you an answer. Not a highly intelligent one. Just an answer. And if it doesn't know what it's talking about, it'll still give an answer.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "median human" can run a web search and report back on what they found without making stuff up, something I've yet to find an LLM capable of doing reliably.

I bet you median humans make up a nontrivial amount of things. Humans misremember all the time. If you ask for only quotes, LLMs can also do this without problems (I use o3 for search over google)

Ah the classic "humans are fallible, AI is fallible, therefore AI is exactly like human intelligence".

I guess if you believe this, then the AI is already smarter than you.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this super surprising, because even I who don't do aerodynamics I still know about thes guys. Bleriot was a french aviation pioneer and not a physicist. He built the first monoplane. Busemann was an aerodynamicist who invented wing sweep and also did important work on supersonic flight. Prandtl is known for research on lift distribution over wings, wingtip vortices, induced drag and he basically invented much…

What is wing sweep, what is induced drag, what is the area rule?

Airliners don't have the wings going straight out, instead being swept back. You can also sweep them forward to get the same effect, but you will rarely want to do that due to other problems. This means that the cross sectional area of the aircraft varies less along the length and reduces wave drag.

If there's no lift there's no pressure different between the upper side of the wing and the lower side of the wing. But if there's lift there's higher pressure on the bottom and lower on top, so air wants to flow around the wing, from bottom to top, producing a wingtip vortex. This flow creates drag, and this drag is called lift-induced drag or just 'induced drag'.

The area rule is about minimizing wave drag by keeping the cross sectional area of different parts of the aircraft close to the cross sectional area of the corresponding cross-section of a minimal drag body. It leads to wing sweep and certain fuselage shapes.

Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately

#220
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if these tools are close to having super-human intelligence, and they make humans so much more productive, why aren't we seeing improvements at a much faster rate than we are now? Why aren't inherent problems like hallucination already solved, or at least less of an issue? Surely the smartest researchers and engineers money can buy would be dogfooding, no? Hallucination does seem to be much less of an issue now. I…

The few times I've used Google to search for something (Kagi is amazing!), it's Gemini Assistant at the top fabricated something insanely wrong. A few days ago, I asked free ChatGPT to tell me the head brewer of a small brewery in Corpus Christi. It told me that the brewery didn't exist, which it did, because we were going there in a few minutes, but after re-prompting it, it gave me some phone number that it found i…

The google AI clippy thing at the top of search has to be one of the most pointless, ill-advised and brand-damaging stunts they could have done. Because compute is expensive at scale (even for them) it’s running a small model, so the suggestions are pretty terrible. That leads people to who don’t understand what’s happening to think their AI is just bad in general.

That’s not the case in my experience. Gemini is almost as good as Claude for most of the things I try.

That said, for queries tgat don’t use agentic search or rag, hallucination is as bad a problem as ever and it won’t improve because hallucination is all these models do. In Karpathy’s phrase they “dream text”. Agentic search and rag and similar techniques disguise the issue because they stuff the context of the model with real results, so the scope for it to go noticeably off the rails is less. But it’s still very visible if you ask for references, links etc many/most/sometimes all will be hallucinations depending on the prompt.

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