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François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

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Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting a high score on ARC doesn't mean we have AGI and Chollet has always said as much AFAIK, it's meant to push the AI research space in a positive direction. Being able to solve ARC problems is probably a pre-requisite to AGI. It's a directional push into the fog of war, with the claim being that we should explore that area because we expect it's relevant to building AGI.

I'm all for benchmarks that push the field forward, but ARC problems seem to be difficult for reasons having less to do with intelligence and more about having a text system that works reliably with rasterized pixel data presented line by line. Most people would score 0 on it if they were shown the data the way an LLM sees it, these problems only seem easy to us because there are visualizers slapped on top.

What is a visualisation?

Our rod and cone cells could just as well be wired up in any other configuration you care to imagine. And yet, an organisation or mapping that preserves spatial relationships has been strongly preferred over billions of years of evolution, allowing us most easily to make sense of the world. Put another way, spatial feature detectors have emerged as an incredible versatile substrate for ‘live-action’ generation of world models.

What do we do when we visualise, then? We take abstract relationships (in data, in a conceptual framework, whatever) and map them in a structure-preserving way to an embodiment (ink on paper, pixels on screen) that can wind its way through our perceptual machinery that evolved to detect spatial relationships. That is, we leverage our highly developed capability for pattern matching in the visual domain to detect patterns that are not necessarily visual at all, but which nevertheless have some inherent structure that is readily revealed that way.

What does any of this entail for machine intelligence?

On the one hand, if a problem has an inherent spatial logic to it, then it ought to have good learning gradients in the direction of a spatial organisation of the raw input. So, if specifically training for such a problem, the serialisation probably doesn’t much matter.

On the other hand: expecting a language model to generalise to inherently spatial reasoning? I’m totally with you. Why should we expect good performance?

No clue how the unification might be achieved, but I’d wager that language + action-prediction models will be far more capable than models grounded in language alone. After all, what does ‘cat’ mean to a language model that’s never seen one pounce and purr and so on? (Pictures don’t really count.)

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#212
You would think we would have to take a statistical approach to AGI.

Look how we learned physics. Aristotelian physics was "An object in motion tends to come to a stop." That looked right most of the time a bowling ball on sand, grass, or even dirt comes to a stop pretty fast. But once you have a nice smooth marble floor the ball goes a lot further.

Newtonian physics solved that and several other issues and works fine, most of the time, but has corner cases when going very fast or getting near a high gravity location. Then relativity and the rest.

We need to build a system that we can teach like we do children that lets them reason that something is true under certain circumstances but may not hold generally so have to update what true is. And that looks like statistics.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting a high score on ARC doesn't mean we have AGI and Chollet has always said as much AFAIK, it's meant to push the AI research space in a positive direction. Being able to solve ARC problems is probably a pre-requisite to AGI. It's a directional push into the fog of war, with the claim being that we should explore that area because we expect it's relevant to building AGI.

> Getting a high score on ARC doesn't mean we have AGI and Chollet has always said as much AFAIK He only seems to say this recently, since OpenAI cracked the ARC-AGI benchmark. But in the original 2019 abstract he said this: > We argue that ARC can be used to measure a human-like form of general fluid intelligence and that it enables fair general intelligence comparisons between AI systems and humans. https://arxiv.o…

Relative to humans, these models sure have ungodly amounts of knowledge, but they also kinda have a lobotomy, in never having moved through the world. It’s remarkable they work as well as they do trained chiefly on text, but being so untethered from the only reality we know intelligence to have emerged from... frankly, what do we expect?

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#214
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly is "reasoning"?

In this context I believe it refers to models that are trained to generate an internal dialogue that is then fed back in as additional input. This cycle might be performed several times before generating the final output text. This is in contrast to the way that GPT-2/3/“original 4” work, which is by repeatedly generating the next finalized token based on the full dialogue thus far.

Who invented internal dialogue?

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#215
post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

Getting a high score on ARC doesn't mean we have AGI and Chollet has always said as much AFAIK, it's meant to push the AI research space in a positive direction. Being able to solve ARC problems is probably a pre-requisite to AGI. It's a directional push into the fog of war, with the claim being that we should explore that area because we expect it's relevant to building AGI.

[dead]

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#216
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there is a gap in intelligence between two humans, does that mean to you that one of them is necessarily not a general intelligence? The current crop of AIs get some of the questions right by reasoning through them. That means they are already intelligent in the way ARC-AGI-2 measures intelligence. They just aren't very capable ones. If AI at least equal humans in all intellectual fields then they are super-intell…

You can define AGI however you want I suppose, but I would consider it achieved when AI can achieve at least about median human performance on all cognitive tasks. Obviously computers are useful well before this point, but it is clearly meaningful line in the sand, useful enough to merit having a dedicated name like "AGI". Constructed tasks like ARC-AGI simply quantify what everyone can already see, which is that cur…

> but I would consider it achieved when AI can achieve at least about median human performance on all cognitive tasks

What do you consider below-median humans? Are they meat-zombies? General intelligence is at least somewhere near the minimum of human performance - and it wouldn't be a surprise to me if people performing at that level can't do the ARC AGI test either.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He only says this because otherwise he would have to say that - OpenAI's o3 counts as "AGI" when it did unexpectedly beat the ARC-AGI benchmark or - Explicitly admit that he was wrong when assuming that ARC-AGI would test for AGI

FWIW the original ARC was published in 2019, just after GPT-2 but a while before GPT-3. I work in the field, I think that discussing AGI seriously is actually kind of a recent thing (I'm not sure I ever heard the term 'AGI' until a few years ago). I'm not saying I know he didn't feel that, but he doesn't talk in such terms in the original paper.

It's in the OpenAI charter...

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#218

You would think we would have to take a statistical approach to AGI. Look how we learned physics. Aristotelian physics was "An object in motion tends to come to a stop." That looked right most of the time a bowling ball on sand, grass, or even dirt comes to a stop pretty fast. But once you have a nice smooth marble floor the ball goes a lot further. Newtonian physics solved that and several other issues and works fin…

The Cyc project basically achieved what you're talking about, even without approaching AGI. They manually programmed concepts and relationships between things into a huge knowledge graph. Then they had heuristics for choosing the appropriate version of facts for a given context (e.g. level of rigor). It was arguably able to use a library of abstractions similarly to what Chollet is talking about, but couldn't learn new ones automatically through exploration or play.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#219
Today we asked Gemini CLI to check if any of the files in /home/user/dirname contained a word.

It churned for >5 minutes and didn't solve the problem.

grep, of course, solved the problem in under a second.

AGI is going to be a while, and your jobs are safe.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#220

Today we asked Gemini CLI to check if any of the files in /home/user/dirname contained a word. It churned for >5 minutes and didn't solve the problem. grep, of course, solved the problem in under a second. AGI is going to be a while, and your jobs are safe.

Try it with Claude Code on Opus

Gemini CLI isn't very good

Edit: Also, the more competent models (Opus/ Sonnet to a lesser degree) are good at very complex subtask delegation that it can blow through and attempt and then verify in seconds, so not sure hand crafted regex examples are the best counter examples here

New code patch models that I didn't even take seriously are actually really impressive and pretty new

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