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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#211

Post by brookst »

CKMo wrote: post #185

There's definitely a big problem with entry-level jobs being replaced by AI. Why hire an intern or a recent college-grad when they lack both the expertise and experience to do what an AI could probably do? Sure, the AI might require handholding and prompting too, but the AI is either cheaper or actually "smarter" than the young person. In many cases, it's both. I work with some people who I believe have the capacity…

I just can't agree with this argument at all.

Today, you hire an intern and they need a lot of hand-holding, are often a net tax on the org, and they deliver a modest benefit.

Tomorrow's interns will be accustomed to using AI, will need less hand-holding, will be able to leverage AI to deliver more. Their total impact will be much higher.

The whole "entry level is screwed" view only works if you assume that companies want all of the drawbacks of interns and entry level employees AND there is some finite amount of work to be done, so yeah, they can get those drawbacks more cheaply from AI instead.

But I just don't see it. I would much rather have one entry level employee producing the work of six because they know how to use AI. Everywhere I've worked, from 1-person startup to the biggest tech companies, has had a huge surplus of work to be done. We all talk about ruthless prioritization because of that limit.

So... why exactly is the entry level screwed?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#212

Post by ck2 »

LLM is going to be used for oppression by every government, not just dictatorships but USA of course

Think of it as an IQ test of how new technology is used

Let me give you an easier example of such a test

Let's say they suddenly develop nearly-free unlimited power, ie. fusion next year

Do you think the world will become more peaceful or much more war?

If you think peaceful, you fail, of course more war, it's all about oppression

It's always about the few controlling the many

The "freedom" you think you feel on a daily basis is an illusion quickly faded

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#213

Post by splitstud »

catigula wrote: post #206
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so true. We had a (admittedly derogatory) term we used during the rise in interest rates, "zero interest rate product managers". Don't get me wrong, I think great product managers are worth their weight in gold, but I encountered so many PMs during the ZIRP era who were essentially just Jira-updaters and meeting-schedulers. The vast majority of folks I see that were in tech that are having trouble getting hir…

Off-shoring is pretty big right now but what shocks me is that when I walk around my company campus I see obscene amounts of people visibly and culturally from, mostly, India and China. The idea that literally massive amounts of this workforce couldn't possibly be filled by domestic grads is pretty hard to engage with. These are low level business and accounting analyst positions. Both sides of the aisle retreated fr…

[dead]

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#214

Post by ofjcihen »

catigula wrote: post #196
Animats wrote: post #194

The real bloodbath will come when coordination between multiple AIs, in a company sense, starts working. Computers have much better I/O than humans. Once a corporate organization can be automated, it will be too fast for humans to participate. There will be no place for slow people. "Move fast and break things" - Zuckerberg "A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." - Georg…

This doesn't even make sense. What corporations do you think will exist in this world? You're not going to sell me your SaaS when I can rent AIs to make faster cheaper IP that I actually own to my exact specifications.

This is always the indicator I look for whether or not someone actually knows what they’re talking about.

If you can’t extrapolate on your own thesis you can’t be knowledgeable in the field.

Good example was a guy on here who was convinced every company would be ran by one person because of AI. You’d wake up in the morning and decide which products your AI came up with while you slept would be profitable. The obvious next question is “then why are you even involved?”

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#215

Post by coffeefirst »

monero-xmr wrote: post #4

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_auto... It wasn’t just Elon. The hype train on self driving cars was extreme only a few years ago, pre-LLM. Self driving cars exist sort of, in a few cities. Quibble all you want but it appears to me that “uber driver” is still a popular widespread job, let alone truck driver, bus driver, and “car owner” itself. I really wish the AI ceos would actually make my l…

You know what I want? A LM that navigates customer support phone trees for me.

If you want to waste my time with an automated nonsense we should at least even the playing field.

This is feasible with today’s technology.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#216

Post by spamizbad »

mlsu wrote: post #183
idkwhattocallme wrote: post #23

I worked at two different $10B+ market cap companies during ZIRP. I recall in most meetings over half of the knowledge workers attending were superfluous. I mean, we hired someone on my team to attend cross functional meetings because our calendars were literally too full to attend. Why could we do that? Because the company was growing and hiring someone to attend meetings wasn't going to hurt the skyrocketing stock.…

I suspect that these "AI layoffs" are really "interest rate" layoffs in disguise. Software was truly truly insane for a bit there. Straight out of college, no-name CS degree, making $120, $150k (back when $120k really meant $120k)? The music had to stop on that one.

Yeah, my spiciest take is that Jr. Dev salaries really started getting silly during the 2nd half of the 2010s. It was ultimately supply (too little) and demand (too much) pushing them upward, but it was a huge signal we were in a bubble.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#218

Post by socalgal2 »

abracadaniel wrote: post #86
ben_w wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Game theory/Nash equilibrium/Prisoner's Dilemma, and the turkey's perspective in the problem of induction. So far, for any given automation, each actor gets to cut their own costs to their benefit — and if they do this smarter than anyone else, they win the market for a bit. Every day the turkey lives, they get a bit more evidence the farmer is an endless source of free food that only wants the best for them. It's ea…

My long term fear with AI is that by replacing entry level jobs, it breaks the path to train senior level employees. It could take a couple of decades to really feel the heat from it, but could lead to massive collapse as no one is left with any understanding of how existing systems work, or how to design replacements.

I agree with your worry.

That said, the first thing that jumps to my mind is cars. Back when they were first introduced you had to be a mechanically inclined person to own one and deal with it. Today, people just buy them and hire the very small number of experts (relative to the population of drivers) to deal with any issues. Same with smartphones. The majority of users have no idea how they really work. If it stop working they seek out an expert.

ATM, AI just seems like another level of that. JS/Python programmers don't need to know bits and bytes and memory allocation. Vibe coders won't need to know what JS/Python programmers need to know.

Maybe there won't be enough experts to keep it all going though.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#219

Post by Terr_ »

FeteCommuniste wrote: post #44
isoprophlex wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too plan to buy 100.000 liters of yogurt each day once AI has transported me into the socioeconomic strata of the 0.1%

My many robots will be busy building glorious mansions out of yogurt cups.

Or, as per a Love, Death, and Robots short film, the new superintelligence will be inextricable from yogurt...

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#220

Post by gerad »

brookst wrote: post #211
CKMo wrote: post #185

There's definitely a big problem with entry-level jobs being replaced by AI. Why hire an intern or a recent college-grad when they lack both the expertise and experience to do what an AI could probably do? Sure, the AI might require handholding and prompting too, but the AI is either cheaper or actually "smarter" than the young person. In many cases, it's both. I work with some people who I believe have the capacity…

I just can't agree with this argument at all. Today, you hire an intern and they need a lot of hand-holding, are often a net tax on the org, and they deliver a modest benefit. Tomorrow's interns will be accustomed to using AI, will need less hand-holding, will be able to leverage AI to deliver more. Their total impact will be much higher. The whole "entry level is screwed" view only works if you assume that companies…

They don't have the experience to tell bad AI responses from good ones.
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