Firstly that is completely badass science. The idea that you can use observations to detect the chemical composition of an exoplanet millions of kilometres away is an absolute triumph of the work of thousands of people over hundreds of years. Really amazing and deeply humbling to me. Secondly, my prior was always that life existed outside of earth. It just seems so unlikely that we are somehow that special. If life d…
If life is very common in the universe, then that is probably bad news for us. It means that civilizations should exist that are millions of years more technologically advanced than us; and should be leaving telltale signatures across the sky that we'd likely have detected by now. And the absence of those signs would be relatively strong evidence that life, while common, isn't long-lived. Suggesting that our demise t…
“Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
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Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
Earth may become uninhabitable in 1By due to increasing brightness of the sun. In 3-4B years it will be too hot for liquid water on the surface.
Earth is on course to become uninhabitable for human civilisation its current form within a century, with an associated mass extinction. Even if all industrial activity stopped tomorrow there's now enough CO2 in the system to guarantee a succession of uncomfortable and expensive droughts, floods, storms, and wildfires for thousands of years. If it doesn't they will become more and more extreme very quickly. If ocean…
Maybe once day, aliens will drop by and discover what remains of humanity. And stories will be told of how, when the time came, our species decided to bury its head in the sand and hope the problem would go away. Or maybe that we attempted to create god to come rescue us.
Life imitates art. We refused to listen to the scientists.
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
Dark Forest depends on the presumption that interstellar travel is worth engaging in (ie it's possible to do faster than light), and that spectacularly devastating weapons are possible. So far we have no reason to believe that either of those assumptions is smart.
Faster than light travel isn't needed (and IIRC doesn't occur in the series the dark forest name comes from). Spectacularly devastating weapons are definitely possible - redirect an asteroid into an inhabited planet and you're likely to kill most of its inhabitants; redirect enough and you can kill almost everything. That's not even getting into things like antimatter, gamma rays, etc. The dark forest hypothesis does…
The Trisolarians developed FTL travel while they were on the way to Earth, IIRC.
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
Calling it simply an engineering issue is not properly conveying the ridiculousness of such a journey. For a small space ship of 1000 tons, this would take ten thousand times the current yearly energy consumption of mankind. So we'd need to figure out how to generate the energy and then store it on a space ship before even thinking about the engineering. And that's ignoring the mass of the fuel. The classical rocket…
Seriously, most if not all of humanity's issue is our current energy wall. I truly wish we can invest more in energy as compared to AI because I truly believe that most AI agents are roughly the same and now are benchmark maxxing and even google's gemini is really really cool. Maybe now training it even further has less reward for the cost? I truly wish energy could be a solved issue. I think clean energy can be grea…
The more energy you have access to, the more uses you'll find for energy, and therefore the more energy you'll want to have access to.
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#215Here's the primary source https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/adc1c8 They possibly detected dimethyl sulfide, which is only known to be produced by living organisms.
I'm not convinced about the methods. It looks a lot like p-hacking to me: they have a highly specific hypothesis drawn from a large universe—that dozen or so molecules (§3.1) in their infrared spectrum model they're fitting experimental data against. I don't buy the way they created that hypothesis. The put a handful of highly specific biosignature gases into it, things that were proposed by exobiology theory papers.…
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#216How far off are we from being able to image an exoplanet?
Directly imaging an exoplanet has been done about 20 times (maybe more, by now). If you're asking how far are we from resolving an exoplanet to more than a single point of light, the answer is we will never be able to do that from this distance.
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
In 500 million years, hopefully humans (or whatever humans have become at that point) will be able to modify the Earth's atmosphere to deal with the increased luminosity of the Sun.
We might be lucky enough to do that, but it could have easily taken intelligence another 500M years to evolve on another planet. First animal fossils are something like 700M years old, so it took 2-3G years to just any animals.
It's possible we are absolutely one-in-a-billion uniquely lucky - after all, someone has to be the first and the luckiest. But every year we find indications that our planet is completely typical.
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sadly it is still only a stop-gap measure. The sun is for all intents and purposes, dying a slow death.
Yeah, but if humans exist by the time the sun fails us, they wouldn’t really be the same species as us, and they’d hopefully have progressed to the point that they could escape the Earth.
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
no matter how advanced the civilization is, proxima centauri will always be 42 trillion kms away. Our civilization in current stage is not even close to 0.1% the speed of light but lets say your advanced civilization goes at 99% the speed of light, still doesnt change the fact they need 4.25 years approx to reach earth. Still doesnt change the fact that unless they have a 1 billion km wide telscope, they cannot relia…
> Still doesnt change the fact that unless they have a 1 billion km wide telscope, they cannot reliably tell if earth has life or not. How come we’re making progress on this without a 1bn km telescope?
Re: “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
Every field of study, subject, or problem, or even business cases, -- all have different ranges. Why does this one in-particular sound like they don't know what they are talking about? It would be just as accurate for me to say in the range of responses, yours kind of sounds like an anti-science bot. Typical of that type of thinking.
The difference between .5B years and 1.5B (BILLION) years is pretty staggering in a conversation basically focused around the last couple thousand years. Definitely room for the comment. Your anti-science bot comment however, is very anti-science.
Of course, calling someone anti-anti-science. The new 'right'. Using science arguments against science. Yes. Your comment is typical, just spam fud. "look at this huge range, see, scientist don't know what they are doing"