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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

molsonhart.com

211–220 of 1001 posts

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, sure, but perhaps some kind of plan is warranted?

Isn't the point of capitalism to not have a plan and let the market figure it out?

No, of course not. That's oversimplifying to the point of idiocy.

Markets do not mean that an Industrial strategy / Industrial policy is not needed.

Markets respond to incentives created by such a strategy.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#212
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's approach it from the other direction: why should we? What are we getting by trying to "bring it back"?

High paying factory jobs that will allow an individual to purchase a home and start a family!

Factory jobs aren’t high paying and even if you brought all manufacturing home it would barely impact manufacturing employment.

Automation is what took the jobs away.

To fix housing all you need to do is build more homes. America has plenty of land for that.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#213
post #176
post #35

> China generates over twice as much electricity per person today as the United States. Why? This appears to be completely wrong? All the stats I can find say that the US has about 4x the per capita electricity generation of China. Other than that it seems to be mostly good points, especially the overall one: you cannot do this overnight. > If you’re building a new factory in the United States, your investment will a…

Can someone explain to me why EU VAT is considered a tariff, while US sales taxes are not? They both seem a sale tax to me.

[deleted]

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#214
post #117

The other day I saw the results of a poll [1] where 80% of Americans thought the *country* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. However, only 20% of Americans thought that *they* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. It was surprisingly bipartisan. In other words, people like the idea of this, but no one actually wants this. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/845917ed-41a5-449f-…

Americans are cosplaying (voting their belief system, not what they'll do, the "revealed preference"), as they do as farmers [1] [2] [3] [4], as they do as "rural Americans" [5]. It is an identity crisis for tens of millions of people [6]. Their crisis is our shared political turmoil. Happiness is reality minus expectations. From the piece: "The people most excited about this new tariff policy tend to be those who’ve…

While simultaneously needing migrant labor with lower minimum wages and labor laws for agricultural workers.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#215
post #39

Missing reason #15: commercial lenders with a brain realize that these tariffs and this self-imposed domestic crisis will dissipate in the next ~6 years. Nobody's going to lend in this market to try to spin up a new greenfield project in the US that will take years to get operational when they can sit and ride it out - ESPECIALLY at these interest rates.

I'm not so sure. The tariffs most certainly will dissipate but we can't discount the chance that they may be replaced with actual written in law voted on by congress and signed by the president taxes that have similar but much more durable effects. Manufacturing and heavy industry really hates off-shoring. They only do it because the sum total of other policy makes it the only viable option. I can see them taking a d…

I have a suspicion that the coming tax cuts will be extreme, and the gaps in critical funding will be covered with tariff income. This will essentially make tariffs a cornerstone for government finances.

Political suicide to roll back tax breaks if they are primarily for the <$150k earners, like trump wants.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#216
post #177
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define "more valuable."

Leading to higher profits, jobs people want, and security, for starters.

Security needs taxes which lower profits and salaries (= jobs people want). On top of that, security needs a lot of not-so-profitable capabilities.

High profits and jobs people want also don't exactly go hand-in-hand.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#217
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not an existential issue; many former hegemons, such as the United Kingdom, continue to exist. Coalitions exist to ward off hegemons.

>such as the United Kingdom, continue to exist They were really close to not existing. France stopped existing, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, all stopped existing. China, Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar, New Guinea, Guam, East Timor, and Nauru all…

That was in a pre-nuclear weapon world.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#218
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the important question is - is it worth it? Should we be doing something more valuable instead?

People seem to want jobs with the macho kudos of manual labour, but with the physical comfort and salaries of email jobs, and I have some very bad news about that combination.

Those people need to watch a few episodes of Mike Rowe's "Dirty Jobs". Also people need to stop saying "unskilled labor". There is no such thing as labor without skills, outside a category in an archaic way of justifying low wages.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unskilled-labor.asp

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#219
post #7

Our economy was designed to NOT have citizens work at factories. We pay thousands of dollars a year in our public schools to teach each of our citizens calculus, literature, world history, and physics, so that they DON'T have to work at a factory, or perform manual labor like picking strawberries or driving trucks or cleaning toilets. Why would anyone want to go back to an economy that can be run by a third worlders?…

Americans fantasize about factory work because, at that time in America, you could afford a home without a two-income family. Life was "easier" for many people. Personally, I think we need to focus on making things like homes more affordable. This would go a long way toward alleviating people's feeling of being trapped.

> Life was "easier" for many people.

It's definitely less of a factor compared to money, but I can't help wonder if in addition to being able to afford stuff, it's the idea that there used to be a "default" path that carried some sort of dignity. Dirty jobs have never been outright glamorous, but there's still a kind of respect that American society confers upon "traditional" industrial work - think the classic image of the humble American coal miner, factory worker, or farmer. "It ain't much, but it's honest work." I think the thought is that however you did in school and in the upper-class-employment rat race, anyone could find a stable, respectable, long-term job - probably even get trained on the job - in an industry that really matters, that does useful stuff for the country.

Now? If you fail to jump through all the office-job hoops of picking a fancy field, getting a degree, finding internships, dressing up nice, keeping a clean record, acing job interviews, etc. Or if those fancy jobs just aren't hiring near you. What are the "default" job options most people are left with? Working retail at Walmart? Putting fries in the bag at McDonalds? Janitorial? Driving a truck? Doordashing burritos?

Obviously the main thing the lack of stability and decent pay in these jobs, but when it comes to public perception and fantasizing, like you said, I wonder if a part of it is just that these service sector jobs feel... shittier. Less important for society.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#220

Still, this kind of outsourcing of manufacturing (or even more food production) puts the US in an incredibly uncomfortable position, especially that China is its main geopolitical enemy. What if a war erupts? Suddenly the US cannot produce a lot of essential stuff - I think Covid was a good example of that happening. Of course the question is can this be done and what will be the price if so.

Subsidize the essentials let the free market sort the rest. I think we still want competitive markets within our borders for the stuff we subsidize so we don't get stagnation of the industry. Maybe there are clues how it could be structured like we subsidize farming.
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