I am among the few who think it might eventually prove itself a good idea. To start with, Europe has no good cards to play. Ultimately, Europe will side with the United States while it builds self-sufficiency on several fronts, especially defense. Europe also recognizes that the complete relocation of production capacity into China wasn't good in the long run; it's just that they had no ability to act on their own. T…
Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#212This reads to me as "we're doubling-down on 145%+ tariffs for everyone else". This is getting frighteningly close to a Russian-style economy. As in, a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government. The furthest system possible from the free-market paradigm that built the American economy as it stands toda…
We're building a hybrid of Italian Fascist and a Argentinian Peronist like state. The desire for transactional wins and power overshadows all. Trump will unironically ally himself with a turd like Elon, or a turd like the UAW dude who glazed him on "Liberation Day". The state control of business is missing... perhaps we'll see that develop with Tesla. It's a weird movement, because the baseline assumption is that the…
Every dictatorship is unhappy in its own way but they all involve:
Myth of the strong man dictator
Erosion of rule of law
Undermining independent judiciary
Arbitrary detention and arbitrary enforcement of laws
Separate paramilitary groups
There are signs of all of this in the US just now.
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
The US economy was not built on a free-market. US private capitalists have been built on a free market; now that their profits are under attack because they are being outcompeted by China, so they are running away with the ball. American economy real growth, where most white Americans gained wealth, came after World War II, where it was government led and controlled. It was the same for Europe, where they had to rebu…
>the Chinese economic model of government-controlled economic direction, though not perfect, would work better You want the US government to provide more subsidies to US tech companies so they can stay competitive? Because that is what China is doing for its tech sector.
Subsidizing companies is not the problem not sharing the wealth with the workers is the problem. US not subsidizing it companies is bullshit fed to you. As Boeing, Tesla, SpaceX, Microsoft from the tel-cos to the power suppliers to banks and hedge fund all have been subsidized by American tax payers or are still being subsidized with and you get share buybacks. Americans are being bullshitted into loosing their social and healthcare subsidies in favor of giving it to corporations but the sharing back of the wealth in conveniently forgotten
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
This assumes that he has more power than the tech companies on the everyday life and I wonder if that is really the case. As I'm not located in the states, I'm very much interested to hear from a US resident if that is really the case.
>This assumes that he has more power than the tech companies lol Even the San Francisco city council is bullying American tech companies and tech executives. The power of US tech companies is vastly overstated.
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
This assumes that he has more power than the tech companies on the everyday life and I wonder if that is really the case. As I'm not located in the states, I'm very much interested to hear from a US resident if that is really the case.
> This assumes that he has more power than the tech companies on the everyday life How?
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#216I’ve noticed that the pro-trump posters have been quiet on this site recently, pretty funny.
Because, in reality, they voted for his regressive cultural policies, not his regressive economic policies. Though in November I'm sure they were telling us how good he would be on the economic front.
So the top 1% will benefit economically from the right being in power, but the rest will spend the rest of their lives mad about whatever the current social change is, regardless of who's in power.
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#217* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/when-are-tariffs-good
Especially when it comes to certain areas of the economy:
> Democratic countries’ economies are mainly set up as free market economies with redistribution, because this is what maximizes living standards in peacetime. In a free market economy, if a foreign country wants to sell you cheap cars, you let them do it, and you allocate your own productive resources to something more profitable instead. If China is willing to sell you brand-new electric vehicles for $10,000, why should you turn them down? Just make B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps, sell them for a high profit margin, and drive a Chinese car.
> Except then a war comes, and suddenly you find that B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps aren’t very useful for defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been years before the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, it’s a war in and of itself.
* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now
> China has rapidly established itself as the world’s dominant shipbuilding power, marginalizing the United States and its allies in a strategically important industry. In addition to building massive numbers of commercial ships, many Chinese shipyards also produce warships for the country’s rapidly growing navy. As part of its “military-civil fusion” strategy, China is tapping into the dual-use resources of its commercial shipbuilding empire to support its ongoing naval modernization
* https://www.csis.org/analysis/ship-wars-confronting-chinas-d...
But none of the current "reasons"—which may simply be rationalizations / retcons by underlings for one man's fickle will—really make much sense:
* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-...
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. I hope our government can survive the next 4 years for criminal investigations into this era. We can't become Russia.
Trump won the popular vote. I don't think this is going away without a major demographic shift, time probably measured in decades.
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#219Pointed it out in the other thread, but this is a capitulation . China imposed retaliatory tariffs that remain in effect! There are a handful of businesses that do indeed export to China, and the net effect here is that they've all been thrown under the bus. China gets to kill/pick/control them at will now.
How will China react to this, I wonder.
And then I imagine they'll probably silently drop the tariffs, because those are harmful for them.
Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists The strategy is to keep everyone unsure what might come next. It's like in boxing. When you hit your opponent and leave them confused and uncertain what you might do next, you use that to your advantage and keep on hitting. It's how you "win." As if there are any winners here.
He isn't really hitting an opponent though, he is mainly hitting the U.S.