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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

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Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#211

Post by ein0p »

onemoresoop wrote: post #129
ein0p wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can live off the land today with no help from robots. I know a couple of folks who had enough of corporate America and now live on a farm in Florida. It's been almost 10 years, they're doing all right. It's not even that much work unless you grow stuff commercially. But I hear what you're saying. More "humane" progress would certainly be very welcome. In fact if neo-feudalism wins, most of us will have to "live o…

If neo-feudalism wins the majority will be working on the goals of the feudal nobility, whatwver that may be.

Robots will be doing that. There will also be a small workforce to repair the robots. The rest of us will have to learn to grow and preserve food. That is assuming the feudals leave us alone and don't exterminate us instead.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#212

Post by tucnak »

goatlover wrote: post #204
treis wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think we're that far away but I also think it looks different than humanoid robots. I can see a drain plumbing system that maps out a new construction home and some sort of automated robot that builds out large sections of pipe. It wouldn't completely eliminate the plumber. But it'd change it from something like measuring, cutting, and gluing 100 times to walking around with a camera for 5 minutes and then gl…

That's just for new construction though. What about all the existing homes that need repairs?

Well, there's going to be less of those. As construction industry is further incentivised to use more efficient methods and materials for their plumbing, driven by the ever-competitive housing market (that would likely see a crash in our lifetime, you know?) making the point moot. I think nobody is delusional that there's blue ocean in plumbing, or some hidden plumbing Renaissance of human labour. Do people even want to do manual plumbing in the first place?

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#213

Post by aceazzameen »

rqtwteye wrote: post #25
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

I bet anything that any robots capable of performing any kind of service will be subscription based. It will also purposely be out of reach for anyone not wealthy.

Society has to change before humanity has any further technological progress that will benefit everyone. We're simply in the "how to min max wealth growth" stage.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#214

Post by ozim »

abyssin wrote: post #201
ozim wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Europe we have less and less people. Automation is a must have because we will need those people in areas that cannot be automated. Transformation will be painful as it is hard to re-train people or get people to do stuff that is not really their forte.

In Europe we already have the technology for everyone to live and retire comfortably. What we don’t have is the governments whose goal is for everyone to do so. I don’t see how more technology would solve a political issue.

I did not write about need for more technology.

What I see is companies failing behind implementing existing well known technologies.

It is people who want to keep doing whatever they were doing for years that later will be angry, because whatever they were doing stopped making sense but they don’t understand it. They will not want to understand things that put them out of job…

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#215

Post by anon7000 »

IshKebab wrote: post #144
mustyoshi wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

120 years ago 40% of Americans were farmers, today that number is under 2%. That technical progress resulted in a few companies and farm conglomerates becoming incredibly wealthy. But the benefits that we all received was we didn't have to toil in a field, and we get fresh beef on every corner. The wealth gap growing, and the median person being better off aren't mutually exclusive.

Yeah the thing is there were better jobs that ex-farmers (or at least their children) could go to. I'm unconvinced that's the case this time round. Especially for unskilled people.

Is that really true 120 years ago? We have a lot of hindsight bias, but things really weren’t amazing for the average person in the US even one hundred years ago.

Today, the average person has affordable access to a lot of things that may have been luxuries, or simply didn’t exist, 100-200 years ago. Running water, electricity, internet, mobile phones, modern sanitation & infrastructure, and any number of tiny cheap devices that improve QoL.

And yes, we also have huge problems with wealth disparity and late stage capitalism.

The problem is, we should not throw out the baby with the bathwater. Like, we do not have widespread food scarcity problems today. Extremely advanced medical technology is available, if too expensive.

Our tech bubble is only one small part of actual technology. There is still very cool research going on in other fields. Big tech is all about personal computing & social media, and yeah, AI in this area is dubious and hard to get excited about.

At the same time, there are SO MANY other areas of technology which can have huge impacts on humanity. For example, the tech behind modern AI models has already produced breakthrough research in the field of protein folding. (https://youtu.be/P_fHJIYENdI) This will have a big impact on our ability to solve biological problems.

All that to say… let’s stop being so closed-minded about tech. Yes, the big tech social media, app, and SaaS companies are not going to give us a utopian future. But technology is way more than that. It includes robotics advances for cheap manufacturing, cheap energy from small scale hydro or even nuclear installations, advances in our ability to fight diseases and viruses (the COVID vaccine would not have been possible as quickly without modern technology), more clever & efficient construction techniques, and the list goes on and on. Tech is absolutely solving tons of real problems that we face. We can be excited for that and also not care about the next knock-off AI wrapper SaaS company.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#216

Post by rchaud »

tokai wrote: post #199
bashfulpup wrote: post #69

Very typical SV argument that R&D is "complex" and everything else is "simple". Would it blow your mind if I told you 10yrs ago that we'd have AI that can do math/code better than 99% of humans but ordering a hotdog on doordash would be cutting edge and barely doable? I don't disagree that "common" tasks are more valuable. I only argue that the argument these are easily automatable is a viewpoint based on ignorance.…

>10yrs ago [...] ordering a hotdog on doordash would be cutting edge and barely doable? Online food ordering is a lot older than 15 years.

Doordash is not the same as traditional online ordering. DD and all delivery apps are 3rd party middlemen that set their own menu prices and operate separately from the restaurant.

Through this kind of obfuscation, they incentivize the growth of things like ghost kitchens, which are basically faceless factories. Nobody would order from them if they drove by one. but on the apps, they are displayed as standalone restaurants.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#217

Post by riku_iki »

dogcomplex wrote: post #73
techpineapple wrote: post #2

Does anyone else find techno-optimism really depressing? I guess one for the more common reason that it’s displacing humanity with technology, but the second reason is just you can’t get excited about a hype that is unlikely to manifest. It feels very ungrounded from tangible benefits to society.

We've had a long history of technological improvements being widespread distributed to the people. There's not a particularly bleak reason to believe the latest AI automation won't be too. Look around your desk or your house and just count all the effort-saving devices that have made their way down to you. Look at the price of TVs cratering. Tech that can be recreated easily spreads far and wide. AI can too. It's dro…

> We've had a long history of technological improvements being widespread distributed to the people. There's not a particularly bleak reason to believe the latest AI automation won't be too.

the difference this time is that humans just moved to other activities where they were useful, and with super-AI(if it will happen) this is not the case anymore.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#218

Post by thatcat »

tucnak wrote: post #212
goatlover wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just for new construction though. What about all the existing homes that need repairs?

Well, there's going to be less of those. As construction industry is further incentivised to use more efficient methods and materials for their plumbing, driven by the ever-competitive housing market (that would likely see a crash in our lifetime, you know?) making the point moot. I think nobody is delusional that there's blue ocean in plumbing, or some hidden plumbing Renaissance of human labour. Do people even want…

Good luck given the codes in place for all these things, not to mention trade unions.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#219

Post by tkjef »

daveguy wrote: post #182
tkjef wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so what’s your solution then? you realize corporations are just run by people? but yes they become cold, heartless soul sucking places. yes. make your own company and do something about it then. or STFU.

Not the GP, but I'd rather reform our government to not be exclusively for money grubbing companies and billionaires who put profits over people.

i absolutely hear you on that. it just seems too hard to do that.

my solution is to make companies that are cool, fun to work at, push good values and make some money.

then use that money to push for appropriate political moves like you are saying.

how would you propose to reform the government? through voting? good effing luck. it will take $$$.

additionally, i get really annoyed with all the complaining that is done about politics. did you vote? neat, that’s the system we have. want to do something about it? make some money. that’s the system we have.

these people complaining about things instead of doing something will die complaining.

coming from a liberal that is more in the center and annoyed with my overally liberal parents.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#220

Post by api »

treis wrote: post #185
api wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacing human labor with technology is usually a wonderful thing if the gains are generally realized. It means less time spent in 'toil' and more time to pursue one's true interests and desires. The reason it feels depressing is that if recent history is any guide, 0.0001% of the human race will receive almost all the benefit. A tiny number of richer-than-rich will get even richer and everyone else will stay the sa…

Median income in constant dollars in the US was about 60k 40 years ago and now is about 80k. We can buy a lot better stuff with those dollars too.

Now check housing prices over that time.
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