Live data from Hacker News

Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

nabraj.com

211–220 of 266 posts

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#211
post #134

This reads as someone who looks at data but doesn’t actually play basketball, coach basketball or generally know basketball. Numbers can only tell you so much, and 2025 Celtics and the rise of Steph have led to more 3s but the sport of basketball is not as predictable as the author suggests. For example, look at the college game, which doesn’t reflect this trend as much as the NBA does.

I think they are talking strictly about the NBA. College players are much more inconsistent because they're younger and less experienced. There are not many 20 year olds you can depend on to consistently make 3s. There are also a lot more teams which spreads the talent pool around. In my opinion, it amounts to a more exciting product to watch, even if it's less polished.

There probably are as many 20 year old college kids who can hit threes as there are pros who can hit them, but they are spread over many more teams.

Unless you have a correctable mechanical problem with your shot, the ability to hit a three point basket is more of a natural ability than a learned skill. Those guys just have incredibly good hand-eye coordination.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I agree that more complexity is not better and there’s a real risk of alienating fans with complicated schemes. But chess has made real inroads by providing good commentators and analysis. You can’t make teams play dumber but you can teach fans to be smarter. As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. And in turn, the game has become l…

Thinking Basketball is great. The people who complain about the 3s in basketball probably didn’t watch the NBA in the older days. Horrible defense and far less skill — and that’s the era I grew up and loved. I have two major complaints about the game nowadays: (1) intentional fouling to get an advantage. It’s the only major sport where fouling can often work to your advantage. (2) The block call is so inconsistent it…

The defense was much more on point back in the ‘90s because the defenders were allowed to be more physical without fouls getting called left and right. Nowadays it’s all a travesty, you’ve got scoresheets like 145-135 and nobody blinks an eye about it.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#213
post #208
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's not a huge difference. 3% is like an average of 3 extra misses More like 5 extra misses per game. And we're getting more uncontested misses today. > a big man backing down his man for like 20 seconds and throwing up a clanker that gets rebounded into another 20 second post possession. Realistically that's what a lot of offense was like back in the day. But this clearly wasn't happening 64% of the time. The i…

Can't it be that defense got better too? Free throw percentage is up since '95 so they aren't just less accurate in general at that distance.

Perimeter defense is way better now. In the old days most 3s were uncontested. It’s a shot they just wanted you to take.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird because almost all of the levels below the NBA are better games than the NBA. Nobody really goes out of their way to follow AAA baseball teams, but college basketball and even some high schools are great games. The pet theory is that the NBA is a RNG for gambling now the game isn't really the game. TV is near death, so gambling is the only source of revenue that can possibly replace the big TV deal.

My theory is that it’s only a matter of years before the Saudi’s launch a league. It’ll scoop up a large swath of international players including NBA superstars. Jokić becomes very famous and wealthy.

This theory of yours in which Jokic is yet to become very famous and wealthy, what alternative universe is it set in?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#215
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. I'd much rather watch NBA players miss 3's than watch a 23 minute YouTube video of someone talking about missing 3's. ;-) But the NBA FG% in 2025 is 46.5%, while it was 49.1% in 1985, so I'm skeptical that 3 pointers are simply replacing long 2 pointers with equal percentages. Obviously the % w…

That's not a huge difference. 3% is like an average of 3 extra misses, which is probably not even that noticeable with variance. 3 pointers are not replacing 2 pointers with equal percentages, but they are creating opportunities for higher percentage 2 pointers. > Crowding is not necessarily bad. A contested shot is interesting; an uncontested shot, not so much. Even uncontested dunks are less interesting than contes…

The disrespect for the low post game. I sentence you to watch McHale nightlights.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the most popular sport on the planet - soccer - doesn't have playoffs anywhere except USA

That's not true I'm afraid: The German Bundesliga has a playoff to see which of the 16th team in tier 1 or the 3rd team in tier 2 goes into tier 1 next year The English Championship (tier 2) has a tournament of four teams (placed 3rd-6th) to determine who goes up into the Premier League. The final of this is known as the richest game in football, worth £120m+ to the winner. It could also be argued that the new UEFA C…

These are not playoff systems for a championship but for a promotion/relegation. There are better examples like the Belgian league but they carry over more benefits from the regular season.

The champions league determines the teams going the brackets in 8 "season" games. Instead of > 30.

But even in your bad faith argument the number 1 and for the championship even the number 2 is decided by just the regular season. So they understand that the regular season should mean more than some seeding.

Everyone knows that in 80 games a half are either walkovers or don't mean anything in the end. They are only there for the money and could be cut for a better league. They could, just like 3 pointers, even make it a more profitable option.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not true I'm afraid: The German Bundesliga has a playoff to see which of the 16th team in tier 1 or the 3rd team in tier 2 goes into tier 1 next year The English Championship (tier 2) has a tournament of four teams (placed 3rd-6th) to determine who goes up into the Premier League. The final of this is known as the richest game in football, worth £120m+ to the winner. It could also be argued that the new UEFA C…

These are not playoff systems for a championship but for a promotion/relegation. There are better examples like the Belgian league but they carry over more benefits from the regular season. The champions league determines the teams going the brackets in 8 "season" games. Instead of > 30. But even in your bad faith argument the number 1 and for the championship even the number 2 is decided by just the regular season.…

The claim was that playoffs don't exist at all outside the US.

The UEFA CL is a league-then-playoff championship system. There are other examples, as you yourself acknowledge.

Bad faith argument? How dare you.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking Basketball is great. The people who complain about the 3s in basketball probably didn’t watch the NBA in the older days. Horrible defense and far less skill — and that’s the era I grew up and loved. I have two major complaints about the game nowadays: (1) intentional fouling to get an advantage. It’s the only major sport where fouling can often work to your advantage. (2) The block call is so inconsistent it…

besides 7-footers chucking 3’s what “skills” do these new nba players have? there are maybe 10 that have any skills, the rest can shoot and that’s about fucking it. 90% of today’s players would play in D league two decades ago

> two decades ago

Are you talking about the age when teams gave contracts to any random player 6'10 and above just to soak up fouls from Shaq?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#219
post #208
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's not a huge difference. 3% is like an average of 3 extra misses More like 5 extra misses per game. And we're getting more uncontested misses today. > a big man backing down his man for like 20 seconds and throwing up a clanker that gets rebounded into another 20 second post possession. Realistically that's what a lot of offense was like back in the day. But this clearly wasn't happening 64% of the time. The i…

Can't it be that defense got better too? Free throw percentage is up since '95 so they aren't just less accurate in general at that distance.

If shooting and defense got better simultaneously, then all other things equal, overall shooting % should have stayed about the same, not gone down.

Also, as hardwaregeek mentioned: "And in turn, the game has become less crowded and more spread out, leading to a higher percentage on dunks and layups."

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#220
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

The real problem is the players don’t give a sh*t about the fans any more. You need no better example of that than the All star game tomorrow. In the 90’s it was an amazing, competitive game between the best players in the league. Now…the players can’t even be bothered to jog up and down the court. Load management: players claim their bodies are delicate and can’t play too many games. Why would I want to buy tickets…

Durant has only requested a trade once. He completed all his other contracts.
Post reply on HN