Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

211–220 of 868 posts

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#211

Post by cypress66 »

eightysixfour wrote: post #193
cypress66 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be trivial for the Chinese to determine if covid 19 matches with what they were investigating in the lab, and if the people in the lab were among the first infected.

But it is non-trivial to impossible for them to prove it wasn’t. Which is perfect for political tools and wedges.

Ok. But I'm saying it's almost impossible that no one knows, as the parent comment suggests.

Edit: my original comment was not intended to be a reply to you, but to the parent.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#212

Post by mandmandam »

WillyWonkaJr wrote: post #167

I suspect that most people are so against the lab manufactured hypothesis because they've been infected by Covid, probably multiple times, and have decided to stop taking precautions. To accept that you've been infected with a bioweapon is a pretty upsetting prospect.

> I suspect that most people are so against the lab manufactured hypothesis because they've been infected by Covid

Sorry, but that borders on historic revisionism. People are so against the lab manufactured hypothesis because millions of posts regarding it on social media were suppressed and blocked across Facebook, Twitter, and others; and because high-level US officials pressured scientists to claim that it was more likely natural origin than a lab leak despite their actual beliefs; and because a vast section of media and academia blithely swallowed and pushed Daszak's paper in The Lancet despite obvious flaws and massive conflicts of interest. Dissenting views and evidence were heavily suppressed, no matter how convincing or reputable.

The narrative was so forcefully shifted that any discussion of a lab leak was often met with hatred.

And all that was well before most people were infected multiple times.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#213

Post by Johanx64 »

nxm wrote: post #122
steveBK123 wrote: post #62

It was never an implausible theory so the censorship over it was foolish. Of course the immediate jump to conclusion in the first few months by some who found it politically expedient was no better either. People need to be more comfortable saying I don’t know but we are looking into it.

Back then anyone who suggested the lab leak theory was immediately labeled a conspiracy theorist by main stream media.

[flagged]

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#214

Post by eightysixfour »

florbo wrote: post #207
eightysixfour wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm just going to assume it was an accidental biosecurity breach of a natural specimen. Why bother assuming? Why isn’t “I don’t know” good enough?

Sorry, it was a given. We don't know. I don't know. I do enjoy postulating for this particular incident, though.

> Sorry, it was a given.

No sorry necessary. I just think it is interesting how hard it is to not have an opinion about something beyond "I don't know." We all seem to feel more comfortable making an assumption and picking an answer, even when it won't change our behavior and not picking has no cost.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#216

Post by ugh123 »

standardUser wrote: post #137
dekhn wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/us/politics/covid-lab-lea... and https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/media/covid-19-origins-lab-le... In short a few prominent people claimed it was racist to suggest that China's research or wet market contributed to the origins of COVID. They were mistaken but with the highly politicized environment, it helped distort opinions at a critical time. The claims of racism have since been de…

It's not racist to blame China, but it is racist to accuse/harass/disparage Asian people and that was what was happening in America. Pushing back on the lab leak theory was at least in part to stop the dumbest among us from blaming their Asian neighbor. That and the lack of evidence.

Both happened.

People who merely "suggested" the lab could have leaked, and asked to investigate more, were being called racist.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#217

Post by bhickey »

cypress66 wrote: post #185
bhickey wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unlikely we normies will ever know the truth Thanks for the dose of epistemic humility. I'm willing to go one step further: It's plausible that no one knows the truth. Keeping secrets is hard. If someone knew they might've died in the early stages of the outbreak.

It would be trivial for the Chinese to determine if covid 19 matches with what they were investigating in the lab, and if the people in the lab were among the first infected.

I don't think it's so simple.

* A worker could've been infected while hunting for viruses in a cave.

* Someone could've been infected prior to the sample being ascenioned.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#218

Post by RajT88 »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #210
mrandish wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Officials are saying that, true. I have no idea if the report's conclusions are correct, but I doubt a report like that was created in three or four days. Tasking expert analysts, reassigning the manpower necessary and going through legal and secrecy review in 96 hours would be extraordinary for a large bureaucratic agency. Sure, it could happen but that kind of all-hands, crisis urgency is hard to keep quiet. It's…

They've had two months to prep for the new felon.

Two months, exactly. And like as not built on internal reports started long ago.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#219

Post by rufus_foreman »

bhickey wrote: post #146
eightysixfour wrote: post #29

I had a pretty long post about this here before, due to the politicization of the issue it is highly unlikely any of us will ever know “the truth” without a surprise smoking gun. There are good reasons to believe the natural or the lab leak hypotheses. I think you have to accept it is now unlikely we normies will ever know the truth. The post, and its comments, are worth reading still IMO: https://news.ycombinator.co…

> unlikely we normies will ever know the truth Thanks for the dose of epistemic humility. I'm willing to go one step further: It's plausible that no one knows the truth. Keeping secrets is hard. If someone knew they might've died in the early stages of the outbreak.

[flagged]

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#220

Post by shakow »

Aloisius wrote: post #177
wkat4242 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There have been a number of studies that point in that direction; e.g. recent genetic analysis that suggests the Wuhan wet market was the origin. Those are not mutually exclusive theories. It could have been a lab leak that was then superspread by the visit of an affected lab worker (or someone they came into contact with) at the wet market.

A hypothetical lab worker which only spread it to the market and nowhere else seems implausible. I suppose that could happen if what they were carrying wasn't capable of human transmission yet, but was capable of infecting some species of the live animals at the market, but that's a big if. There's till the problem of the second lineage which would indicate multiple zoonotic crossover events.

> I suppose that could happen if what they were carrying wasn't capable of human transmission yet, but was capable of infecting some species of the live animals at the market

Or if infected carrions from the labs were sold at the market – I suppose it only takes a low-ranking employee wanting to make a few bucks.

Post reply on HN