Has anyone else publicly copied the Hindenburg investigation/financial model? It's not proprietary AFAIK.
Muddy Waters has been around for a while and had some high profile hits.
I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
211–220 of 430 posts
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#212Getting out while they are ahead is a smart move, especially considering multiple governments have started to take a closer look at their shorting tactics.
I wouldn't say they were ahead at least in terms of reputation. They targeted India's Adani group and failed. The Supermicro "revelation" was also a damp squib. I suppose they made plenty of money with their short-selling though, so in that sense they are, perhaps, ahead enough.
Supermicro stock is down 40% from the publishing of the report, hardly a damp squib.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#213"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…
Being cautious is good.
It IS possible, that this person is doing it out of passion, rather than a typical idea of a job or firm.
TLDR: Within the realm of possibility, relatively unusual.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Money Magazine a few years ago compared various investment strategies in stocks. The #2 best performing one was investing in the S&P 500. The #1 best performing strategy was the "dead man strategy". The dead man strategy comes into play when the investor dies, and his estate gets frozen until it winds its way through the courts.…
This doesn’t surprise me in the slightest. Most of my investing is just in passive S&P index funds, but I do occasionally buy individual shares. Sometimes I make decent money, sometimes I lose money…turns out I consistently do worse than the S&P long term. I treat buying individual shares as yuppie gambling at this point. It can be fun, but it’s usually a bad strategy.
> I treat buying individual shares as yuppie gambling at this point. It can be fun, but it’s usually a bad strategy.
I would actually recommend the opposite - buy shares of a few companies that you know exceptionally well. That is, not just the companies, but also the market, the industry trends, etc. Charlie Munger recommends holding 5 stocks at max, while Peter Lynch suggests industries that are tangential to your work and daily life. Both solid advice. Revisit the list every year, and you'll already do better than most of the blind duds investing in the S&P500 (which arguably contains a lot of duds).
The problem with most ETFs is that you'll still be investing in a bunch of dud companies, whose only reason for staying in the market is by virtue of being big (think HPs and IBMs, for example).
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yea the Adani report already had me skeptical but the Supermicro hit job, and the fact that multiple independent auditors haven’t found the same claimed problems in their accounting, has made Hindenburg look a lot more shady. This to me looks like an incompetent firm that profited from big short positions and potentially false reports, now closing shop so there’s no assets to claim in a lawsuit.
Adani Group which was charged in November by the SEC for bribery? https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/adani-group-shares-p...
The SEC is charging them with it (as did the DOJ in parallel) - but that’s not the same as a judgment. The way this works is the SEC accuses, and it will need to then go through the legal process of our justice system (or settle it separately). But as of right now, the Adani group hasn’t been found guilty of anything.
The main issue raised in Hindenburg’s report is around accounting. It is too early to draw any final conclusions since I don’t think independent audits have been conducted yet. The Adani group consists of many companies in many industries - some of them did switch auditors after the report came out and financial filings have continued normally since those changes. I don’t think any smoking gun has come out yet that actually proves the accusations from Hindenburg.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Money Magazine a few years ago compared various investment strategies in stocks. The #2 best performing one was investing in the S&P 500. The #1 best performing strategy was the "dead man strategy". The dead man strategy comes into play when the investor dies, and his estate gets frozen until it winds its way through the courts.…
A few years ago cost structures for managing one's investment portfolios were also significantly higher than today! There's an even better alternative for someone willing to put in the leg work: (1) Figure out your investment horizon. For many people, this is way shorter than suggested by generic advice, which makes some diversification beyond "stonks go up" meaningful. (2) Figure out what costs you'll incur by rebal…
I want to learn more about how to rebalance my portfolio. I started with ETFs and MFs and then bought some good stocks when they were low. But I have never rebalanced it. Would you be able to share some resources about it? Also, if possible, some pointers about your script.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's 11 people. It's a band breaking up, not Microsoft choosing its fourth CEO.
And all the bespoke vibes and thoughts that go with that. Remove the people and what is there to sell?
Short sellers are built on their reputation, and Hindenburg has a lot of that. Even if you fired the people, you'd keep the name.
That said, it would be wrong to automatically assume that they try to maximize gains; at this point, it's likely most of the team has enough money to retire, and at that point, making even more might not be their primary goal.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
People don't invest because they think a company is competent. They invest because they are looking for a return. The mistake CrowdStrike made will likely have little to no effect on their revenue. Since the stock dropped a bit (emotional investors getting out) it became a good value proposition, so people bought it cheap. The reasons companies use CrowdStrike haven't gone away. Existing contracts can't just be termi…
There was a case of food contamination in a fast food joint (can't remember which, let's say it was burger king). The stock fell as a result, but recovered relatively quick afterwards - you would've made bank buying it low. The thing is, individual, one off events usually don't break a company, but the stock falls temporarially as a result of some people expecting it to. Of course, it's possible that one event breaks…
> There was a case of food contamination in a fast food joint (can't remember which, let's say it was burger king). The stock fell as a result, but recovered relatively quick afterwards - you would've made bank buying it low.
I think this was some years ago and it was Chipotle. They had to remove some menu items altogether IIRC.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
> P.S. If you are chasing something you think you want or need, or are doubting whether you are enough, take a minute and give this a listen. It had a big impact on me at a pivotal time. He shared something that helped him at a pivotal time. Your expectations are your own. :)
The right music at the right time can be transformative.
For me that was hearing "Stellardrone - Breath in the light" a decade ago during a very stressful work period.
Now it is my go to, in stressful times, when I need to focus and gather my thoughts.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
A few years ago cost structures for managing one's investment portfolios were also significantly higher than today! There's an even better alternative for someone willing to put in the leg work: (1) Figure out your investment horizon. For many people, this is way shorter than suggested by generic advice, which makes some diversification beyond "stonks go up" meaningful. (2) Figure out what costs you'll incur by rebal…
I want to learn more about how to rebalance my portfolio. I started with ETFs and MFs and then bought some good stocks when they were low. But I have never rebalanced it. Would you be able to share some resources about it? Also, if possible, some pointers about your script.
Rebalancing is just selling the high performers and buying the low performers. In his example, you'd keep your "safe asset" allocation at say 15% - if your other stocks did well one year, you'd sell some and buy more "safe assets" so they again constitute 15% of your total value. If stocks tanked, you'd instead sell some "safe assets" and buy more stocks, again until your "safe assets" are back at 15% of total value.